فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک

فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک

Analysis of the US-CHINA Trade War: China’S Diversion from the US towards Malaysia

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
Chong Su Hui 1
Rathnan Anbananthan 2
Imamul Izhar Irhami 3
Raysa Fatma 3
Siti Farahiyah Ab Rahim 1
Mohd Shahril Nizam Md Radzi 4
Kassim Mohammad Hantosh 5
1 Faculty of Law, University Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia.
2 University Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia.
3 Diponegoro University, Indonesia.
4 Faculty of Law, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia.
5 Al-Mustaqbal University, Iraq.
10.22034/igq.2024.476540.1947
چکیده
Malaysia has been a key trading partner with the US and China since its independence. However, the US's imposition of safeguard tariffs has triggered a trade conflict with China, indirectly impacting Malaysia's supply chains and global pricing. This paper aims to explore the implications of the US-China trade war on Malaysia, focusing on the resulting international trade tensions among the involved countries. Using a doctrinal-qualitative approach, the trade policies of these three nations are analysed. With China's investment in Malaysia growing under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the potential for investment diversion from China is high. However, Malaysia faces strong competition from ASEAN countries for this investment relocation, necessitating proactive economic development measures. This paper suggests that Malaysia needs to anticipate the future of multilateral trade with the US and China to effectively navigate these challenges. By addressing these issues, Malaysia can better position itself in the evolving global trade landscape.
کلیدواژه‌ها
US-China Trade Wars
Malaysia
Safeguards Tariffs
Diversion
FDI

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of the US-CHINA Trade War: China’S Diversion from the US towards Malaysia

نویسندگان English

Chong Su Hui 1
Rathnan Anbananthan 2
Imamul Izhar Irhami 3
Raysa Fatma 3
Siti Farahiyah Ab Rahim 1
Mohd Shahril Nizam Md Radzi 4
Kassim Mohammad Hantosh 5
1 Faculty of Law, University Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia.
2 University Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia. p
3 Diponegoro University, Indonesia.
4 Faculty of Law, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia.
5 Al-Mustaqbal University, Iraq.
چکیده English

Malaysia has been a key trading partner with the US and China since its independence. However, the US's imposition of safeguard tariffs has triggered a trade conflict with China, indirectly impacting Malaysia's supply chains and global pricing. This paper aims to explore the implications of the US-China trade war on Malaysia, focusing on the resulting international trade tensions among the involved countries. Using a doctrinal-qualitative approach, the trade policies of these three nations are analysed. With China's investment in Malaysia growing under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the potential for investment diversion from China is high. However, Malaysia faces strong competition from ASEAN countries for this investment relocation, necessitating proactive economic development measures. This paper suggests that Malaysia needs to anticipate the future of multilateral trade with the US and China to effectively navigate these challenges. By addressing these issues, Malaysia can better position itself in the evolving global trade landscape.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

US-China Trade Wars
Malaysia
Safeguards Tariffs
Diversion
FDI
  1. Abdullah, R. (2015). China-Malaysia relations and foreign policy. Routledge.
  2. Adil Kashef Al-Ghetaa, A; Bow Pei, S; & Jia Hui, C. (2023). A jurisprudential perspective of self-defence. Geopolitics Quarterly, 19(Special Issue), 59-78.
  3. Althabhawi, N.M.; Zainol, Z.A.; Bagherib, P. (2022). Society 5.0: A new challenge to legal norms. Sriwijaya Law Review, 6(1), 41-54.
  4. Althabhawi, N.M; Wei Zhe, C; Zainal Abidin, N.S.B; Al Imari, M. H. O. (2023). Personal Media Restrictions on Freedom of Speech: A Social Contract Theory behind It Geopolitics Quarterly, 19(Special Issue), 119-144.‎
  5. APEC. (2024). About APEC. https://www.apec.org/About-Us/About-APEC/ .
  6. APEC Business Travel Card. (2024). Immigration Department of Malaysia. https://www.imi.gov.my/index.php/en/main-services/apec-business-travel-card/apec-business-travel-card-introdcution/.
  7. (2023). Malaysia-China bilateral trade hit record US$203.6b in 2022, says Chinese ambassador. https://www.mida.gov.my/mida-news/ malaysia-china-bilateral.
  8. Brown, L. (2018). Safeguard Tariff explained. Home Heating Guide. https://www.homeheatingguide.co.uk/grants-schemes/what-is-the-safeguard-tariff#:~:text=The%20safeguard%20tariff%2C%20also%20known%20as%20the%20energy,than%20they%20should%20be%20for%20their%20energy%20bills.
  9. Cheng, C. (2019). Is Malaysia benefitting from the US-China Trade War? East Asia Forum. https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/08/05/is-malaysia-benefitting-from-the-us-china-trade-war/.
  10. Cheng, C.K. (2021). Malaysia’s Fluctuating Engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Leveraging Asymmetry, Legitimizing Authority. Asian Perspective 45(2), 421-444.
  11. Chong, W.Y. (2021). Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)–The Geopolitical and Economic Implications on Malaysia. In International Conference on Economics, Business, Social, and Humanities (ICEBSH 2021) (pp. 427-432). Atlantis Press.
  12. (2023). Myanmar violence and South China Sea disputes to dominate ASEAN talks. CNA. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/asean-talks-indonesia-myanmar-military-south-china-sea-3617991.
  13. Dar, K.B; Seng, T.C. (2021). The road and belt initiative in Malaysia: Challenges and recommendations. Akademika, 91(3), 79-91.
  14. Dlouhy, J.A. (2024). US solar manufacturing climbed during tariffs, trade panel finds. American Journal of Transportation. https://www.ajot.com/ news/us-solar-manufacturing-climbed-during-tariffs-trade-panel-finds.
  15. Feldman, D.J. (2022). To understand why Biden extended tariffs on solar panels, take a closer look at their historical impact. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/to-understand-why-biden-extended-tariffs-on-solar-panels-take-a-closer-look-at-their-historical-impact-177528.
  16. Fischer, A. (2022). US government extends Section 201 tariffs on imported PV panels, cells. Pv Magazine International. https://www.pv-magazine.com/ 2022/02/07/us-government-extends-section-201-tariffs-on-imported-pv-panels -cells/ .
  17. Fong, L.B. (2011). Bilateral Trade Intensity Relationship Between Malaysia and China Towards Economic Growth of Malaysia, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS).
  18. Grassi, S. (2020). The Belt and Road Initiative in Malaysia: China's geopolitics and geoeconomics challenged by democratic transformation. Berlin.
  19. Invest in ASEAN. (2024). ASEAN-China Free Trade Area. https://investasean.asean.org/free-trade-areas/view/734/newsid/776/ asean- china-free-trade
  20. Izarudin Shah, N.Q.B; Yusof, M; Binti, N.A.A; Hassim, J.Z; Rmadhan Ameen, T. (2023). The political judgment in the judiciary system in Malaysia. Geopolitics Quarterly, 19(Special Issue), 167-188.
  21. Jun, L; Fay, C.K. (2024). China's Financial Statecraft under Xi Jinping Administration in Selected Southeast Asian Countries. Jebat: Malaysian Journal of History, Politics & Strategy, 51(1).
  22. Kam, A.J.Y. (2023). Malaysia’s Response to the US-China Trade War. The Asian Economic Panel (AEP) for Asian Economic Papers. Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, National University of Malaysia (UKM).
  23. Kamaruddin, H; Dazulhisham, R.S.S.B; Jelani, N.R.B; Al-Karaawi, S.J.M. (2023). Balancing free market value and social justice in employment contract. Geopolitics Quarterly, 19 (Special Issue), 100-118.
  24. Kapustina, L; Lipková, L; Silin, Y; Drevalev, A. (2020). US-China Trade War: Causes and Outcomes. SHS Web of Conferences 73, 010 (2020), https://www.shs-conferences.org/articles/shsconf/pdf/2020/01/shsconf_ies_pdf.
  25. Kaur, B. (2024). Malaysia’s gains from US-China trade war are temporary, warns Guan Eng. https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019/06/496553/ malaysias-gains-us-china-trade-war-are-temporary-warns-guan-eng.
  26. Kuik, C.C. (2021). Malaysia's Fluctuating Engagement with China's Belt and Road Initiative: Leveraging Asymmetry, Legitimizing Authority. Asian Perspective, 45(2), 421-444.
  27. Lee, S.Y. (2019). A study on public understanding towards belt and road initiative (BRI) projects in Malaysia (Doctoral dissertation, UTAR).
  28. Lee, S.Y;, Karim, Z.A; Khalid, N; Zaidi, M.A.S. (2022). The push and pull factors of China’s outward foreign direct investment in BRI countries. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(3), 611-637.
  29. Leong, D. (2024). United States tariff hike will benefit Malaysia. The Star. https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/05/16/united-states -tariff-hike-will-benefit-Malaysia.
  30. Lim, T.S. (2008). Renewing 35 years of Malaysia-China relations: Najib's visit to China. East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore.
  31. Lovells, H. (2022). In landmark decision, state-to-state USMCA panel finds U.S. tariff on solar products from Canada unlawful. https://www.hoganlovells. Com/en/news/in-landmark-decision-state-to-state-usmca-panel-finds-us-tariff-on-solar-products-from-canada-unlawful.
  32. Malaysia, U.E. (2022). U.S. 2020 APEC Outcomes - U.S. Embassy in Malaysia. U.S. Embassy in Malaysia. https://my.usembassy.gov/us2020-apec-outcomes-121220/.
  33. Md Khalid, R; See, E; Rajasegaran, P.P; Ab Rahman, S; Hamzah, A.G. (2023). To Vote or Not to Vote: The Rights and Liberties of Voters in the Electoral System. Geopolitics Quarterly, 19(Special Issue), 1-21.
  34. MIDA | Malaysian Investment Development Authority. (2024). FT: Amid US-China trade war, neutral Malaysia ‘surprise’ choice for global semiconductor industry. https://www.mida.gov.my/mida-news/ft-amid-us-china-trade-war-neutral-malaysia-surprise-choice-for-global-semiconductor-industry/.
  35. Moerenhout, T; Saha, S; Sutton, T. (2024). Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, CGEP. Gauging the Impact of New US Tariffs on Imports from China - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP percentage. https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/gauging-the-impact- of-new-us-tariffs-on-imports-from-china/.
  36. Musni, S.N.B; Sulim, S.N.B; Said, M.H.M; Ali, F.A.R. (2023). Secularism: Freedom of religion or freedom from religion? Geopolitics Quarterly, 19*(Special Issue), 145-166.
  37. Park, Y.S. (2024). US-China Strategic Competition amidst the Paradox of Decoupling. Int'l J. Soc. Sci. Stud., 12, 1.
  38. Romainoor, M.A.H.B; Mohamad Khairi, A.M.A.F.B; Hassan, M.S; Al Marzog, Z.K.M. (2023). Jurisprudence and ITS Relation to Malaysia Political Scene. Geopolitics Quarterly, 19(Special Issue), 22-36.
  39. Saeed, A. (2023). Realistic View on Trade Wars: Us-China Trade Conflict & Impact on Emerging Economies’. Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, 29/2023. https://doi.org/10.47743/jopafl-2023-29-04.
  40. Sipalan, J. (2024). Malaysia’s 50 years of China, pragmatism hits a US rivalry roadblock. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264943/malaysias-50-years-china-pragmatism-hits-us-rivalry-roadblock.
  41. The Star Online. (2024). Malaysia to lead with Madani principles as Asean chair 2025, says PM Anwar. The Star. https://www.thestar.com.my/news /nation/2024/06/06/malaysia-to-lead-with-madani-principles-as-asean-chair-2025-says-pm-anwar.
  42. Thompson, M. (2018). China: “The US has launched a trade war.” CNN- Money. https://money.cnn.com/2018/06/15/news/economy/china-us-trade-war/index.html.
  43. Ting, K.Y. (2019). Trade war between the USA and China: Who gains? Who loses? Does Malaysia stand a chance to benefit? https://www.nottingham. edu.my/Economics/documents/2019/consolation-3.pdf.
  44. S. Relations with Malaysia. (2020). U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. https://www.pacom.mil/JTF-Micronesia/Article/565071/us-relations-with-malaysia/.
  45. United States Trade Representative. (2021). WTO panel rejects China’s solar safeguard challenge. https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/ press-releases/2021/september/wto-panel-rejects-chinas-solar-safeguard-challenge.
  46. United States Trade Representative. (2024). Section 201 – Imported Solar Cells and Modules. https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/enforcement/section-201-investigations/investigation-no-ta-201-75-cspv-cells.
  47. Yeoh, E.K.K; Mei, O.S. (2007). China-ASEAN Free Trade Area: Prospects and Challenges for Malaysia. University of Malaya (UM).
  48. Zhen, C.L.Y. (2023). Friendship renegotiated China-Malaysia Relations. Modern Southeast Asia. Yale University. https://seasia.yale.edu/news/ friendship-renegotiated-china-malaysia-relations.
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
دوره 20، شماره ویژه
زمستان 1403
صفحه 162-182

  • تاریخ دریافت 16 شهریور 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 04 آبان 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 12 آذر 1403