@article { author = {Noorali, Hassan and Ahmadi, Seyyed Abbas}, title = {Highlighting the Geopolitical Challenges Facing the China One Belt One Road Initiative}, journal = {Geopolitics Quarterly}, volume = {18}, number = {66}, pages = {1-34}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Iranian Association of Geopolitics}, issn = {1735-4331}, eissn = {2538-3698}, doi = {}, abstract = {.Extended AbstractIntroductionIn the framework of the "Doctrine of China's Peaceful rise" to dispel the imagine of threat the country's rise in the new world order in the early 21st century, in 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a plan to revitalize the classic land-based Silk Road, a combined set of six sea and land corridors consisting of two separate components: the Maritime Silk Road and the Silk Road Economic Belt, and became known as the "One Belt One Road" and "Belt and Road Initiative". Both components of the China Initiative have the potential to transform the global geopolitical landscape in favor of China's emerging power by building interconnected infrastructure projects including ports, highways, railways and pipelines. Implementing this initiative requires overcoming many challenges, the most important of which can be considered geopolitical challenges. The present study was conducted in a descriptive-analytic and library manner using information obtained through scientific books and articles and in order to represent the geopolitical challenges facing the Chinese government to realize the "One Belt One Road Initiative". The purpose of this paper is the representation of the external challenges facing the Chinese government from a global geopolitical perspective to implement the One Belt One Road initiative based on the two components of the "Maritime Silk Road initiative" and the "Silk Road Economic Belt". In other words, in this article we seek to highlight the geopolitical challenges of the Chinese government's new plan within the framework of the doctrine of Peaceful Rise. Although the initiative was proposed by the Chinese in the shadow of a peaceful doctrine, it is in fact seeking to change the geopolitical world order in China's favor.MethodologyThis descriptive-analytic method was conducted to represent the geopolitical challenges of the China OBOR Initiative. The information and data of this research have been obtained through the library method and scientific books and articles. The main inquiry within this research study is what are the geopolitical challenges to the OBOR initiative, and the paper assumes that there are eight obstacles that call into question the implementation of this initiative. These challenges include: China's maritime disputes with neighboring states, the existing geographical barriers, alternative schemes of powerful geopolitical actors (the conceptual plan of the Eurasian- Russian Economic Union, Mausam India project, against the OBOR and String of Pearls, the Modern U.S. Silk Road Conceptual Plan for the Central Asia, the Innovative European Union Silk Road Conceptual Plan, the multiple Japanese Designs Modern Silk Road Concept), the territorial dispute between Russian Federation and Ukraine, the turmoil of India-Pakistan relations, the continuous civil wars in:  Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, the instability of some countries along the designed route and the security challenges.Results and ConclusionsFrom the beginning of the present century, China proclaims its doctrine of a peaceful yet gradual emergence to eliminate the "Perception of Threat" of the Western Countries as well as United States within the region. Its foreign diplomacy methodology is to revitalize the Classic Silk Road. The most crucial hindrances which are currently facing this project are the geopolitical challenges and barriers that the Chinese Government has been grappling since 2013. This article identified twelve important geopolitical obstacles for the implementation of this project. Some of these essential challenges includes:  The China’s maritime disputes with its neighboring countries, in the South China Sea Region; the geographical natural barriers, among which we can mention: the breadth of the designed trade route, the geographical and topographic inequality of countries in this route and some other problematic factors; alternative schemes of powerful geopolitical actors, such as: The India's Mausam Project, as one of China's regional competitors, has an actual pessimistic approach to the country's Modernized Silk Road Project and tries to encounter the Chinese innovative project by presenting their own alternative development project; the new U.S. Silk Road Plan for the Central Asia Region, designed primarily to monitor Afghanistan, bypassing Iran's path and countering China's geopolitical influence; the Innovative European Union Silk Road Development Proposal, which comprehends the China initiative project as a vast threat to its unification and security; the Russian Federation Plan of the Eurasian Economic Union, which primarily pursues to restrict and curb Chinese influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus Region; the Multiple Japanese Advanced Plans which are based upon "The Central Asia + Japan", "The Freedom and Crescent Prosperity" and "The Defense Line" strategy to contain China’s penetrations; the territorial disagreements between Russia and Ukraine over the Crimea Peninsula, its’ rich natural water springs and the geostrategic port of Sevastopol; the turmoil of India-Pakistan relations over the Kashmir Province and other diplomatic issues; the continues civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan which are located in the fragmented Middle East; the internal political instability of some countries along the designed route, especially in Central Asia and the Middle East; the security challenges based upon territorial and border disputes, extremist Islamic terrorism activities, countries with low national authority levels and the political turmoil in some areas. It can be commented that China's confrontation with these geopolitical challenge’s casts doubt over the final realization of the OBOR.}, keywords = {Geopolitics. China,One Belt One Road,Transportation,the Silk Road}, title_fa = {بازنمایی چالش های ژئوپلیتیکی پیش روی طرح ابتکاری یک کمربند یک جاده چین}, abstract_fa = { در چارچوب دکترین ظهور مسالمت‌آمیز که برای تهدیدزدایی از قدرت‌یابی چین در نظم جهانی قرن بیست و یکم مطرح شد، شی جینپینگ، رییس جمهور چین، جهت احیای جاده ابریشم، طرحی را اعلام داشت که از دو مؤلفه تشکیل شده بود و با نام "ابتکار یک کمربند، یک جاده" معروف شد. به تحقق رساندن این ابتکار، مستلزم عبور از چالش‌های فراوانی است که مهم‌ترین آنها را می‌توان چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی دانست. پژوهش حاضر به روش توصیفی– تحلیلی و به شیوه کتابخانه‌ای به منظور بازنمایی چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی پیش روی دولت چین برای تحقق بخشیدن به"ابتکار یک کمربند یک جاده" انجام گرفته است. پرسش اصلی ما در این پژوهش این است که چه چالش‌های ژئوپلیتکی بر سر راه این ابتکار وجود دارد و فرض مقاله مبتنی بر ارائه چالش‌های 12گانه‌ای است که عملی شدن این ابتکار را مورد تردید قرار می‌دهد. در نتیجه یافته‌های تحقیق، فرضیه ما را تایید می‌نماید.}, keywords_fa = {ژئوپلیتیک,چین,یک کمربند یک جاده,حمل و نقل,جاده ابریشم}, url = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_137370.html}, eprint = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_137370_4b2b48a612205812b5e2a01a2022a520.pdf} } @article { author = {Abdi, Ata and Amereh, Mohammad and Mottaghi, Afshin}, title = {Studying Hydro-Political and Geo-Cultural Relationship between Iran and Tajikistan}, journal = {Geopolitics Quarterly}, volume = {18}, number = {66}, pages = {35-56}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Iranian Association of Geopolitics}, issn = {1735-4331}, eissn = {2538-3698}, doi = {}, abstract = {Extended abstract IntroductionCentral Asia is at the focal point of all geopolitical theories. This region is also the biggest landlocked zone which has no access to water, and with a population of 66 million and inappropriate access to global market has become a tempting trading site for industrial countries such as China, India and Turkey. On the other hand, United States and European Union have some interests in this region such as presence in Russia’s backyard, approaching Iran’s borders and gaining control over these two countries by restricting them. Saudi Arabia and Israel have no less tendency to have access to this region to siege Iran and seek allies in international society. Therefore, each country is struggling to confirm its presence in this region based on their interests and possessions. These states are trying to establish a share of their own actions in this region: European Union by extending NATO, Russia by extending regional alliances, Turkey by economy and Turkish identity, Saudi Arabia by religious fundamentalism, China and India by economic development, US by establishing military bases and financial aid and Israel by sets of investments. Iran as a neighbor of central Asia with a wide historical and cultural links with this region, especially Tajikistan, is so inevitably involved, the Central Asia for Iran can be the sword to Damocles and in any case of activism in this region could threaten Iran. Thus, Iran has to invest in Tajikistan’s dam construction technology to catch existing opportunities to secure its national interests besides all the threatening circumstances.The research method The present study used documentary research to collect information and has portrayed a clear feature of Central Asia resources and their role in forming the relations of republics in this region based on the existing data and information. The research method has also been based on analytical and descriptive method.The research findingsThe existing data shows that Amu Darya and Syr Darya supply almost 90% of the water in Aral Lake which reaches to 125 cubic kilometers per year. The remaining 10 percent of the water comes from rivers and other small springs. Tajikistan is the main source of water supply. More than 55.4 percent of the total flows are originated in this country. Therefore, Tajikistan has the capacity to build 100,000 MW hydroelectric power plant and it can alone supply 5 percent of the world’s electricity.This dispersion of water resources shows that nearly 60% of the whole Amu Darya storage capacity and 9% of the total Syr Drya storage capacity are in control of Tajikistan. Although Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are the main suppliers and controllers of water flows, their overall water usage is less than 15 percent. On the contrary, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan use 71 percent of the accessible water, though they have less share of the water in this region. Most of this water is used for irrigation of cotton fields. In terms of access and exploitation of freshwater, Central Asian countries can be categorized as follows: Countries which have a lot of water, such as Tajikistan (64 km cubic meters, equivalent to 55.4% of the flowing waters of the Aral Lake) and countries with a small amount of water, such as Uzbekistan (8.8 km cubic meters or 7.6%), and Turkmenistan that supplies water entirely from outside of its borders.Among Central Asian countries, nearly 100% of Kyrgyzstan's and Tajikistan's water is supplied from domestic resources. However, all Turkmenistan's water consumption and 50% of Uzbekistan's water are supplied from abroad.Summary and conclusionsTajikistan is one of the few countries in the world that can be a strategic alliance of Iran and also the most important country in Central Asia which can lead to the presence of Iran in the region. On the other hand, Iran is one of the few countries in the world that can defend Tajikistan against the adaptation of Russian and Turkish culture. The strong cultural share of the two countries will allow them to abandon many visa and business restrictions in the future and sign a military, economic, and cultural agreement. Tajikistan is the smallest country in terms of geographical extent and also the poorest in Central Asia. Therefore, both economically and nationally, there is a severe weakness in this country. The identity of this country is being threatened by the interference of the neighboring countries and the youth people immigrate abroad to find jobs. It has a large supply of hydroelectric power, which can also improve its economy by attracting foreign investment and by maintaining a balance of power in its national security area. Meanwhile, Iran is the largest Persian speaking country and is the heir to a great civilization among consanguineous countries and therefore responsible for their defense against Russian and Turkish full cultural adaptation. On the other hand, by investing in hydroelectric power, the country can engage and compete with its rivals, interregional and outsourcing rivals in Central Asia, while securing its economic interests and keep away the threats made by these countries.But the presence of Iran in the central area requires the abandonment of the ideological view of the region and with a realistic insight and emphasis on cultural and linguistic relations should play a role in Central Asia and Tajikistan. Losing Tajikistan and pushing the country into regional rivals like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States, Israel and Uzbekistan could lead to a complete cessation of Iran's presence in Central Asia. Although Tehran has good relations with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, these two countries cannot be reliable and trustworthy partners for Iran, and if their interests are changed, they will easily reduce their relations with Iran.By investing in Tajikistan's economy, especially its water resources, Iran can establish unbreakable ties with Dushanbe, in addition to strengthening the Tajik economy and supplying Iran's water resources. Therefore, Iran can strengthen its presence in Central Asia by using Tajikistan's position, which will reduce the influence of its rivals and enhance the bargaining power of Iran. Therefore, it can be said that hydro-politics is a good field for Iran’s role in Central Asia.}, keywords = {Hydro-politics,Central Asia,Tajikistan,Geo-culture,Iran}, title_fa = {بررسی روابط ایران و تاجیکستان از منظر هیدروپلیتیک و ژئوکالچر}, abstract_fa = {آسیای مرکزی به‌واسطه اهمیت ژئواستراتژیک خود، در نظر قدرت‌های منطقه‌ای و جهانی جایگاه بسیار مهمی دارد و این قدرت‌‌ها همواره در تلاش برای حضور در این منطقه بوده اند. بگونه‌ای که از سده نوزده به بعد یکی از مناطق حساس ژئوپلیتیک جهان بوده است. در میان ویژگی کلان راهبردی این منطقه در نظام ژئوپلیتیک جهانی در درون نیز این منطقه دارای برخی ویژگی‌‌ها و عناصر جغرافیایی است که آن را واجد برخی چالش‌‌های ژئوپلیتیک قرار داده است که از جمله مهم‌ترین آنها موضوع آب است. در این میان کشور تاجیکستان به دلیل دارا بودن بخش مهمی از منابع آب منطقه از موقعیت فرادستی در آسیای مرکزی برخوردار است. بنابراین آسیای مرکزی و به ویژه تاجیکستان به واسطه داشتن اشتراکات فراوان فرهنگی با ایران، واجد اهمیت استراتژیک برای ایران است. با توجه به چنین امری مساله پژوهش حاضر این است که ضرورت ژئوپلیتیک حضور ایران در تاجیکستان چیست و فرصت‌ها و ابزارهای موجود در این میان دربرگیرنده چه مواردی است، همچنین عرصه بازیگری ایران در ژئوپلیتیک این منطقه چیست؟ یافته‌‌های پژوهش گویای آن است که با توجه به موقعیت برتر هیدروپلیتیک تاجیکستان در آسیای مرکزی به نظر می‌رسد سرمایه گذاری ایران در پروژه‌‌های آبی تاجیکستان در کنار پیوندهای فرهنگی دو کشور می‌تواند راهکار مناسب و کم هزینه‌ای برای پیشبرد علایق ژئوپلیتیک ایران در راستای گسترش حوزه نفوذ در منطقه آسیای مرکزی بوده و به دست بالای ژئوپلیتیک ایران نسبت به رقبای منطقه‌ای و فرامنطقه‌ای در این منطقه ژئوپلیتیک منجر شود. }, keywords_fa = {هیدروپلیتیک,ژئوکالچر,آسیای مرکزی,تاجیکستان,ایران}, url = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_108357.html}, eprint = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_108357_cd3f43ac06eabac6d34020dbd512b219.pdf} } @article { author = {karimi, Hamidreza and Mousavi Shafaee, Seyed Masoud and Eslami, Mohsen and Asadi, Ali Akbar}, title = {Dynamism of Order in World and Regional Levels and Change in Roles of Regional Actors of Persian Gulf (Case Study: United Arab Emirates)}, journal = {Geopolitics Quarterly}, volume = {18}, number = {66}, pages = {57-87}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Iranian Association of Geopolitics}, issn = {1735-4331}, eissn = {2538-3698}, doi = {}, abstract = {Extended abstract Introduction Nowadays, international order has passed serious changes in both world and regional levels. The entrance of international order to the era of post-American transition and environmental dynamisms in regions have made some basic uncertainties inspiring changes in roles of most of actors in regions, particularly in Persian Gulf. United Arab Emirates is one of the most significant examples of the mentioned actors. Using the theory of role, this research seeks to investigate what effects have the changes and dynamisms of orders in world and region had on roles and acts of actors in the region of Persian Gulf. The hypothesis is that: dynamisms of orders in world and regional levels have changed the social structure of order and consequently this issue has provoked some regional actors like UAE to start promoting its role from a moderate and dependent actor in regional upheavals to a security, military, and political actor during the last 10 years. The research is explanatory-analytical and the method of data collection procedure is based on library and online international statistics and documents.      MethodologyThe research is descriptive-analytic. Using the descriptive-analytic approach, the researcher seeks to answer why and how is established a causal relationship between independent and dependent variables, and it is attempted to describe a process and develop a concept.Results and discussion Two factors at the systemic and regional levels have changed the role of the UAE. 1) Changing the regional role of the United States of America in the Persian Gulf region; 2) Regional developments such as the Arab Spring and military conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, Iran's growing influence, and competition and conflict with Qatar. In addition, to consolidate its new role, the UAE has taken actions including: 1) Intervention in the Yemeni civil war; 2) Finding new regional and trans-regional allies such as Russia and Israel.ConclusionsThe findings of this study show that changes in order at the systemic and regional levels change perceptions of the role of regional actors. In this regard, the role and foreign policy of the United Arab Emirates were discussed. In particular, the UAE's foreign policy behavior was largely influenced by the structure of the international system, and they traditionally followed the dominant power; but changes at the systemic level and the dynamics of order at the environmental level led the country to take on a role beyond the subordinate government at the regional level. Hence, the UAE is trying to impose its political and security order through proxy forces, military organizations and the support of affiliated politicians. But the UAE's ambitions and behavior to become an influential country in the Persian Gulf region can have a significant impact on regional order. For example, bringing Israel into the Gulf security environment could provoke a reaction from pro-Palestinian groups and lead to new tensions.}, keywords = {World order,Regional Order,Persian Gulf,USA,United Arab Emirates}, title_fa = {پویایی‌های نظم در سطح جهانی-منطقه‌ای و دگردیسی نقش کنشگران منطقه‌ای خلیج فارس (مطالعه موردی: امارات متحده عربی)}, abstract_fa = {امروزه نظم بین‌الملل تحولات مهمی را در سطح کلان و مناطق پشت سر می‌گذارد. ورود نظم بین‌الملل به دوران گذار پساآمریکایی و پویایی‌های محیطی در سطح مناطق عدم قطعیت‌های اساسی را با خود به همراه دارد که الهام‌بخش تغییر نقش بسیاری از کنشگران در سطح مناطق و به‌طور خاص منطقه خلیج‌فارس بوده است. ازجمله مهم‌ترین این کنشگران می‌توان به امارات متحده عربی اشاره کرد. براین اساس پژوهش حاضر با مبنا قرار دادن نظریه نقش و بکار گیری آن در دوران گذار نظم بین‌الملل به دنبال پاسخ‌گویی به این سؤال مهم است که: تحولات و پویایی‌های نظم در سطح جهانی و منطقه‌ای چه تأثیری بر نقش و کنش‌های رفتاری بازیگران در عرصه منطقه‌ای خلیج‌فارس به همراه داشته است؟ و فرضیه‌ای که در پاسخ به آن مورد آزمایش قرار خواهد گرفت بدین‌صورت قابل طرح می‌باشد: پویایی‌های نظم در سطح کلان و منطقه‌ای منجر به تغییر ساختار اجتماعی نظم شده و این امر به‌عنوان محرکه‌ای برای تغییر نقش برخی از کنشگران منطقه‌ای از جمله امارات متحده عربی عمل کرده است تا نقش خود را از یک کنشگر میانه‌رو و تابع در تحولات منطقه‌ای به یک کنشگر سیاسی، نظامی و امنیتی طی دهه گذشته تغییر دهد. هدف پژوهش نشان دادن تغییر در تصورات از نقش کنشگران منطقه‌ای(امارات متحده عربی) و پیامدهای آن برای نظم منطقه‌ای است. روش پژوهش نیز در قالب رویکردهای تبیینی-تحلیلی خواهد بود و شیوه گردآوری داده‌ها، کتابخانه‌ای و مبتنی بر آمار و اسناد بین‌المللی می‌باشد.}, keywords_fa = {نظم جهانی,نظم منطقه‌ای,خاورمیانه,ایالات‌متحده آمریکا,امارات متحده عربی}, url = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_130947.html}, eprint = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_130947_9d90763e6ab54112155d06b948b38494.pdf} } @article { author = {Babaei, Soraya and Soltani, Alireza and Sanaie, Ardeshir and Shirzad, Hamid Raze}, title = {Future Scenarios: Geopolitical Explanation of the Impact of the Brexit on the Monetary Unity of the European Union}, journal = {Geopolitics Quarterly}, volume = {18}, number = {66}, pages = {88-109}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Iranian Association of Geopolitics}, issn = {1735-4331}, eissn = {2538-3698}, doi = {}, abstract = {Extended abstractIntroductionThe continent of Europe was the starting point of two World Wars. But after World War II, the two main former enemies, France and Germany decided to move away from the state of hostility and move toward cooperation. Although joint cooperation in the field of coal and steel began and gradually expanded to other areas, what was important were the areas and elements that encouraged cooperation and convergence and strengthened it over time. Cultural and value commonalities, the cost of war and hostility, the fear of a common threat, Soviet-centered communism, mutual needs for joint cooperation, the importance of the economic component, and etc. were among the factors that encouraged cooperation. The impetus for cooperation and expansion of cooperation and convergence to other Western European countries led to the continuous strengthening of unity and convergence. In fact, the success of cooperation in a sector caused that sector to become a unifying element and strengthen cooperation. Achieving monetary unity and having a single currency was one of those unifying elements. In fact, the economy played an important role in the emerging political community in Europe, and monetary unity was one of the dreams of European politicians before the formation of the European Union, an ideal that was recognized at the beginning of the 21st century in the European Union. The recognition of the euro as a common currency was realized.Achieving a single currency played an important role in strengthening the European Union and the common sense of unity. Although countries such as Britain and Denmark tried from the beginning to avoid accepting the single currency, there was no escaping this fact. With the Brexit, Britain has officially separated from the euro and the common currency. Given the importance of the British economy in Europe on the one hand, and the importance of the Euro alongside the dollar, as one of the most important world currencies on the other hand, it is important to consider how the British withdrawal will affect European monetary unity. Where the future of the Euro will go with the UK withdrawing from the EU monetary union; an important issue that this article seeks to answer. This study, by extracting scenarios from the future of European monetary union, finds it more likely that the British withdrawal will lead to greater cohesion of the European Union and, consequently, to strengthen monetary unity.  MethodologyThe research is qualitative and its approach is descriptive-analytic. Also, due to the nature of this research, the future research method and in particular making scenario is used. By considering independent and dependent variables, related topics are extracted and while coding, we record them in research sheets. In this regard, by referring to written sources and works of recent years, as well as interviews with elites, the method of information analysis is used.Results and discussionIn this section, in the first step, the geopolitical foundations of the European Union are examined. In fact, this section examines the starting point of convergence and the importance of monetary unity. The second step examines the 2008 financial crisis, which sparked pessimism about monetary unity and highlighted the challenges as well as the weaknesses of the union's financial institutions. It also provided space for the formation of opposing currents of convergence. Then, in the third step, the impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU on monetary unity will be discussed.ConclusionsThe UK's withdrawal from the EU which has always been opposed to monetary union has made it possible for the EU to move towards more cohesion and convergence with the focus on other top economies such as France, Germany and Switzerland. This paper considers this scenario to be the most probable scenario. Britain's special position in the European Union as a non-aligned member has led to more order and cohesion for the EU to leave. This cohesion seems more likely due to Germany's common desire as a European economic power on the one hand and France's desire as a political and military power on the Green Continent on the other hand. According to this scenario, the demographic potential of the euro area, which is 330 million, is itself a factor influencing the convergence and continuity of European monetary unity. Even with The UK's withdrawal from the EU, countries like Germany, Switzerland and France which have strong economies can have better markets in trade.}, keywords = {European Union,Brexit,United Kingdom,Euro,Future Study,Making Scenario}, title_fa = {سناریوهای تاثیر برگزیت بر وحدت پولی اتحادیه اروپا}, abstract_fa = {پول واحد در قالب یورو یکی از عناصر اصلی قوام بخش ژئوپلیتیک اتحادیه اروپا می باشد که تغییر و تحول در آن می‌تواند سبب تغییرات ژئوپلیتیکی دیگری در این قاره شود. روشن است خروج بریتانیا از اتحادیه اروپا، کلیت این اتحادیه و از جمله وحدت پولی آن را تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد. هدف این مقاله بررسی مسئله تاثیر خروج انگلستان(برگزیت ) بر وحدت پولی اروپا می‌باشد. اهمیت این مسئله در تاثیرات ژئوپلیتیکی تداوم اروپای نسبتا منسجم و یا تغییر آن به یک اروپای شکننده بر سیاست بین‌الملل است.نگارندگان این مقاله با بهره‌گیری از نظریه پیتر شوارتز(سناریونویسی معروف به G.N.B کسب و کار تجارت جهانی درقالب الگوی آینده پِژوهشی) و نیز روش توصیفی، تحلیلی و نیز فرایند محور سه سناریو، بدبینانه شکست وحدت پولی اروپا، سناریو حفظ وضع موجود(تداوم همکاری‌ها میان انگلستان و اتحادیه اروپا) و سناریو خوشبینانه(انسجام فرایند وحدت سیاسی و اقتصادی اروپا) را ارائه دادند. بر مبنای شرایط وقوع سناریوها، نتیجه اصلی پژوهش این است که خروج انگلستان از اتحادیه اروپا، به تقویت مناسبات و سیاست‌های واحد پولی یورو کمک خواهد کرد.}, keywords_fa = {اتحادیه اروپا,برگزیت,وحدت پولی,آینده پژوهشی,سناریونویسی}, url = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_126521.html}, eprint = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_126521_4bb6dd3b73beb9819656c611f7091e16.pdf} } @article { author = {Dehghani Firoozabadi, Seyed Jalal and Shokri, Morteza}, title = {Challenges of States’ Cooperation in the Global Environmental Governance System}, journal = {Geopolitics Quarterly}, volume = {18}, number = {66}, pages = {110-140}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Iranian Association of Geopolitics}, issn = {1735-4331}, eissn = {2538-3698}, doi = {}, abstract = {Extended AbstractIntroductionThe wide-ranging nature of environmental issues, as well as the epistemological consensus on the urgency of threats to environmental degradation have led countries in recent decades to establish multiple regimes to address environmental issues under multilateral agreements. However, in practice, with a few exceptions, these regimes have not been very effective in terms of adaptability and compliance. The purpose of this article is to answer this question: “why despite the growing awareness of the international community about the threats posed by environmental degradation, the cooperation of governments in practice has been challenged? The authors argue that the different positions of countries in the international system have led to the formation of systems of different cognitive correlations and collective identities among them resulting in differences in the degree of institutionalization of environmental values and reduced effective cooperation of governments in effective regimes to address these threats. The research method is based on counterfactual conditionals.MethodologyTo do research, authors based on constructivist analysis framework, use “counterfactual argument” as a methodological tool for explaining international environmental regimes. Counterfactuals make claims about events that did not actually occur. It is argued in this paper that such propositions play a necessary and fundamental, if often implicit and underdeveloped, role in the efforts of scientists to assess their hypotheses about the causes of the phenomena they study. The argument is that if environmental values and norms were sufficiently institutionalized in countries, the effectiveness of environmental cooperation and regimes would increase.Findings While today states may show an increasing readiness to accept that global environmental protection is a common concern of humankind, they do not yet constitute a community that, in the spirit of international solidarity and justice, acts in concert for achieving this end. States are still far from taking joint protective and remedial environmental action that suffices to achieve the aim of preserving and administering our common natural heritage for the benefit of the present and future generations.The basic ideas of international solidarity and justice should constitute the theoretical starting point for constructing an international legal framework of environmental and developmental cooperation between the North and South. However, both perceptions, because of their abstractness and vagueness, only give some rough direction to the way in which both sides should shape their future inter-relationship in substantive and procedural terms. Therefore, they should be understood as sources for developing more meaningful instruments that might bridge the North-South divide in practice.Despite the spread of international institutions and regimes –which are mostly created after "The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment" in Stockholm (1972) - they have failed to minimize the threats posed by destructive environmental practices. In other words, despite the global consensus on the dangers of environmental degradation, state cooperation has not been successful in practice except in a few cases, such as the Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer regime, the Antarctic Convention, and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). That is, many international agreements have either been incompletely ratified, or except a few cases, countries' compliance rates are weak in practice. Two groups of international relations scholars have responded to this question. The first group is those who, in the context of mainstream theories or rationalists, believe that anarchy and its consequences, such as free-riding, is a major factor in reducing the incentives for governments to cooperate on environmental issues. Critical approaches, by contrast, argue that the international system is not anarchic, but rather is hierarchical in nature. In this system, capitalist countries are at the top and developing countries are at the bottom. Contrary to the above approaches, this article argues that the problem of inefficiency of environmental cooperation is due to the lack of institutionalization of environmental values. The authors believe that countries have a different definition and understanding of the status of environmental threats due to their different position in the international system. This perception has led to differences in the institutionalization of environmental values and the reduction of effectiveness of international environmental regimes, like “sustainable development”, “common but differentiated responsibilities”, “equitable participation”, and etc. Findings show that by changing the perceptions and understanding about the nature and environment, as well as by implementing reforms in the mechanisms and processes of decision-making system, it is possible to help improve the efficiency of environmental regimes.Conclusions The North and South country's issues due to their position in the international system, do not have enough consensus on environmental principles and norms. During international negotiations, although they have had a minimal consensus on the enactment of these norms, it varies from commitment to these norms according to the internal conditions of countries. However, we should not consider the ineffectiveness of the international environmental regimes as unlikely. The successful environmental regimes, such as the ozone layer or the ruling regime on the Rhine River, show any progress in the effectiveness of environmental regimes is due to the approach of states' definition of the situation. According to that, if South and North countries converge their perceptions of the natural system, they can gradually take effective practical steps to form effective governance in the field of environmental issues..}, keywords = {Environment,cooperation,Environmental Regimes,identity,Efficiency}, title_fa = {چالش‌های همکاری‌ دولت‌ها در نظام حکمرانی زیست‌محیط جهانی}, abstract_fa = { گستردگی و ماهیت مرزگذر مسائل زیست‌محیطی از یک‌سو و اجماع معرفتی مبنی بر فوریت تهدیدهای ناشی از تخریب محیط‌زیست از سویی دیگر، کشورها را در چند دهه اخیر به این واداشته تا در چارچوب موافقت‌نامه‌های چندجانبه، رژیم‌های متعددی برای تدبیر مسائل زیست‌محیطی تعبیه کنند. با این ‌حال عملکرد این رژیم‌ها از لحاظ میزان انطباق‌پذیری و رعایت‌پذیری به‌استثنای چند مورد، چندان کارآمد و مؤثر نبوده است. هدف مقاله حاضر پاسخ‌گویی به این سؤال است که چرا با وجود آگاهی فزاینده جامعه جهانی در مورد تهدیدات ناشی از تخریب محیط‌زیست، همکاری‌ دولت‌ها در عمل با چالش روبرو بوده است؟ یافته‌های پژوهش گویای این موضوع است که جایگاه متفاوت کشورها در نظام بین‌الملل، موجب شکل‌گیری نظام‌هایی مختلف از همبستگی‌های شناختی و هویت‌های جمعی در میان کشورها شده که نتیجه آن تفاوت در ارجحیت‌های آن‌هاست. در حالی‌که در نزد کشورهای توسعه‌یافته مشکلاتی مثل آلودگی هوا، کاهش لایه اوزون و خطر از بین‌رفتن تنوع‌زیستی در اولویت است، دغدغه کشورهای درحال‌توسعه دست‌یابی به توسعه پایدار و ریشه‌کنی فقر است. چنین وضعیتی موجب کاهش در میزان نهادینگی ارزش‌های زیست‌محیطی و به ‌تبع آن ناکارآمدی رژیم‌های بین‌المللی برای رفع این تهدیدات شده است. روش تحقیق مبتنی بر استدلال شرطی خلاف واقع یا برهان خلف است. نتیجه کلی مقاله این است که با تغییر انگاره‌های مربوط به طبیعت و محیط‌زیست و نیز اعمال اصلاحاتی در سازوکارها و روندهای حاکم بر نظام تصمیم‌گیری می‌توان به بهبود کارآمدی رژیم‌های زیست‌محیطی کمک کرد.}, keywords_fa = {محیط‌زیست,همکاری,رژیم,کارآمدی,نظام حکمرانی}, url = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_119903.html}, eprint = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_119903_57990250e6163b883f969843a57adc40.pdf} } @article { author = {Shokoohi, Saeed and Safari, Asqar and Moradifar, Saeedeh}, title = {The Impact of Europeanization and De-Europeanization on Turkey’s Foreign Policy}, journal = {Geopolitics Quarterly}, volume = {18}, number = {66}, pages = {141-173}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Iranian Association of Geopolitics}, issn = {1735-4331}, eissn = {2538-3698}, doi = {}, abstract = {Extended abstract IntroductionSince its formation in 1923, the quality of interaction with the Europe has been one of the crucial issues in Turkey’s Foreign Policy. The outlook and perspective of the Turkey’s leaders have influenced this interaction, tremendously. For starters Ataturk, as the founding father of the Modern Republic of Turkey, believed that Turkey’s new establishment should search its role model among the European and Western nations where modern thinking and rationality has brought about wealth to the society. Hence, the impact of the interaction on Turkey’s foreign policy intensified since the “Ankara agreement” between Turkey and European Economic Community in 1963. Since then, the nature of this interaction and its probable impact on Turkey’s foreign policy have been discussed in different occasions and by different observers. Some commentators believe that we should not overstate the impact of the process of Europeanization on Ankara’s foreign policy. It enjoys a historical legacy of the Ottoman Empire, a historical depth, strategic location and a distinct ideology which yields huge impact on its leaders’ worldview and behavior. So, the impact of the Europeanization should not be exaggerated. On the other hand, there are many other wonks which believe that the process yields tangible impacts on Ankara’s foreign policy and, it is crystal clear to discern. The present paper favors the second group and argues that the process of joining to the EU has impacted Turkey’s foreign policy. Having said that, it claims that during the process, three distinct phases can be distinguished. Each of these phases has different impacts on the Foreign Policy of the Turkey. The three phases are: a) Europeanization (1999-2005); b) Weakening of the Europeanization (2005-2011); and c) De-Europeanization. Thus, the paper seeks to find out what are the impacts of these phases on Turkey’s foreign policy. It endeavors to scrutinize these phases and provide a sound answer to the question. Analyzing these different periods and examining their distinct impact on Turkey’s foreign policy would be the main contribution of the paper.     MethodologyIn this paper, descriptive-analytic research method is used to answer the research question. Data gathering procedure is also based on library methods and the use of online resources.Results and DiscussionThe findings of the paper show that the most important impacts of the Europeanization process on Turkey’s foreign policy were: Ankara’s inclination to use soft power, expanding and relying on economic cooperation, collective decision-making in foreign policy apparatus and adopting a win-win approach towards regional relations. On the other hand, the process of De-Europeanization has led to inclination to use hard (military) power, substituting and increasing security cooperation instead of economic ones, intensifying individualistic decision-making process (Erdoganism) and adopting a win-lose approach in relations with other countries. ConclusionsThe present paper argued that Turkey’s relations with the EU has significant impact on the Ankara’s foreign policy. To scrutinize the impact, the authors divided their relations into three distinct phases: a) Europeanization (1999-2005); b) Weakening of the Europeanization (2005-2011); and c) De-Europeanization. The main question of the research was how these distinct phases impacted the country’s foreign policy. To answer the question, the conceptual framework of Europeanization was explained and its consequences and repercussions were discussed. Using descriptive-analytic methodology, the authors strove to carefully analyze the different impacts of these distinct phases on the foreign policy making of the Turkey. The Findings demonstrate that contrary to the arguments of the deniers of any meaningful impact of the Europeanization process on Turkey’s foreign policy, it has concrete, meaningful, distinct and discernible impacts. Europeanization led to positive impacts and De-Europeanization reversed that path. The main contribution of the paper was to show these clear-cut impacts during different phases.  }, keywords = {Turkey,European Union,Europeanization,De-Europeanization,Erdogan}, title_fa = {تاثیراروپاگرایی و اروپازدایی بر سیاست خارجی ترکیه}, abstract_fa = {ارتباط ترکیه و اتحادیه اروپا از سال 1999 تا 2020 را می‌توان به سه دوره آغاز اروپایی‌شدن (2005-1999) کند‌شدن فرآیند اروپایی‌شدن(2011-2005) و اروپازدایی(2020-2011) تقسیم‌بندی کرد. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی تاثیرات این سه دوره برسیاست خارجی ترکیه است. به‌طور مشخص سوال اصلی پژوهش این است که فرآیندهای اروپایی‌‌گرایی و اروپا‌زدایی چه تاثیری بر سیاست خارجی ترکیه داشته است؟ مقاله حاضر استدلال می‌کند که مهم‌ترین تاثیر فرآیند اروپایی‌شدن بر سیاست خارجی ترکیه، افزایش تمایل آنکارا به استفاده از قدرت نرم، روی‌‌آوردن به همکاری‌های اقتصادی، تصمیم‌گیری گروهی در دستگاه سیاست خارجی و اتخاذ رویکرد برد- برد نسبت به روابط منطقه‌ای بود. از سوی دیگر، مهم‌ترین تاثیر اروپازدایی نیز تمایل به استفاده از قدرت سخت(‌نظامی‌گری)، افزایش همکاری‌های امنیتی به‌جای همکاری‌های اقتصادی، تشدید فردی‌شدن روند تصمیم‌گیری(‌اردوغانیسم) و دیدگاه برد- باخت در روابط با کشورهای مختلف منطقه‌ای و جهانی می‌باشد.}, keywords_fa = {ترکیه,اتحادیه اروپا,اروپایی‌گرایی,اروپازدایی,اردوغان}, url = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_136150.html}, eprint = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_136150_2c97d067ca70dae4e52ecf47d6e04af2.pdf} } @article { author = {Fathi, Mohammad Javad and Eivavi, Mohammad Rahim and Pirani, Shohreh}, title = {Prospect of the U.S Withdrawal from West Asia in the Light of Regional Strategic Policy}, journal = {Geopolitics Quarterly}, volume = {18}, number = {66}, pages = {174-224}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Iranian Association of Geopolitics}, issn = {1735-4331}, eissn = {2538-3698}, doi = {}, abstract = {Extended Abstract    IntroductionThe United States, as the most important trans-regional active state in West Asia, has gradually gained a great deal of influence in this area in order to achieve its goals, and has formed numerous military and security alliances with regional governments. However, emerging trends such as China's economic revolution and the shale oil boom in the United States, coupled with the deliberate decision of the country's political elite to temporarily withdraw from some parts of West Asia have led to the assumption of diminishing importance of the region and subsequent the U.S withdrawal. And the focus is on areas adjacent to China. The main issue of the present study is to analyze the concept of the U.S withdrawal from West Asia in the light of regional goals and strategies. The main question of the research is “whether the U.S intends to leave West Asia in the light of its regional strategic policy?”.MethodologyThe research method is descriptive-analytic and it is a fundamental in terms of its nature. The method of data gathering is based upon library studies and the use of books, articles and online resources.Results and DiscussionWest Asia is of great importance to the U.S in terms of its geostrategic position, its vast fossil fuel resources, and its large consumer market. The course of the U.S foreign policy in West Asia shows an upward and intrusive trend. The U.S has set specific goals for itself in West Asia, the most important of which are Iran's influence, Israel's security, ensuring the free flow of oil, the trade in arms and arms sales, and China and Russia. Achieving such goals naturally requires the use of pivotal strategies that provide the basis for achieving the desired and optimal results. Strategies such as networking, alliances and coalition buildings with Arab allies, supra-regional balancing, the formation of the Arab NATO, Open Doors strategy in war, baiting, adding fuel to the fire, disintegration and conquest are the most prominent issues for the political and security elites of this country. The basis of all these strategies is several issues: one is that costly wars that damage the American economy and the image, on the other hand, the presence of this country will be smarter and the use of mobile naval forces as well as the use of the drone industry has become more important compared to deployed infantry. Threats to the economy including potential instability and challenges to energy exports as well as threats to the regime's military bases have not been exacerbated, but a more qualitative and cost-effective presence has emerged in recent years. Qualitative presence of this country is done in the form of utilization of the drone industry and rapid reaction forces, and cost-effective presence is also applied in the form of partial security and transfer of responsibility to allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The United States seeks to place the burden of security costs on its traditional allies and to intervene directly only when its vital interests are at stake.ConclusionsThe perception of the U.S withdrawal from the Middle East is an exaggerated fact, but the U.S influence in the region is certainly declining. Just as Eastern Europe is important for Russian Federation, East Asia is politically, security-wise, and economically important for China, West Asia is a strategic region for the U.S. However, there is a dichotomy over the U.S foreign policy in West Asia over whether to stay in or leave the region. Some argue that threats to the U.S interests are stronger today than ever, and this requires an increased the U.S presence, while others argue that over-investment by the U.S in the region has had devastating consequences, so it is first necessary to reduce the level of presence, and given the country's independence from regional energy, it should withdraw in the long run and focus more on controlling China. It must be said, however, that the U.S Middle East policy will not undergo a complete transformation in the future, and that the issue of the U.S withdrawal from West Asia will be ruled out. The strategic importance of West Asia and the field evidence do not support this claim; Statements such as the dangerous behavior of rivals and enemies, the security of Israel, the defense of Arab allies, the serious challenge of great powers such as China and Russia, energy security and the control of energy export corridors and maritime trade have caused the claim of the U.S withdrawal from West Asia not be documented with field facts in the current situation.}, keywords = {the U.S,West Asia,Buck-Passing,Containment,Offensive Realism}, title_fa = {چشم‌انداز خروج آمریکا از غرب آسیا در پرتو سیاست راهبردی منطقه‌ای}, abstract_fa = {آمریکا به عنوان مهم‌ترین کنشگر فرامنطقه‌ای نفوذ زیادی در غرب آسیا پیدا کرده و ائتلاف‌های نظامی و امنیتی متعددی با دولت‌های درون‌منطقه‌ای منعقد ساخته است. روندهای نوظهوری نظیر افزایش روز افزون قدرت چین و شکوفایی نفت شیل در آمریکا منتج به تولید فرض کاهش اهمیت غرب آسیا برای این کشور و متعاقباً تشدید روند خروج شده است. مسئله اصلی پژوهش واکاوی پنداره خروج آمریکا از غرب آسیا در سپهر اهداف و راهبردهای منطقه‌ای است. هدف محوری پاسخگویی به این سوال است که آیا آمریکا در پرتو سیاست راهبردی منطقه‌ای، قصد خروج  از غرب آسیا را دارد؟ فرضیه پژوهش این است که اهداف آمریکا در غرب آسیا از قاعده پابرجایی پیروی کرده و تغییر محسوسی نیافته است، اما راهبرد جنگ پیاده نظام و دخالت مستقیم به دلیل فرسایشی بودن، هزینه زیاد و فرجام نامشخص، به سمت راهبرد هوابرد و عملیات نقطه‌ای، مداخله غیرمستقیم و درگیر ساختن بازیگرن منطقه‌ای سوق پیدا کرده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که اهداف آمریکا از جمله امنیت اسرائیل، کنترل قیمت و کریدورهای انرژی، سد نفوذ چین و روسیه، تجارت جنگ و تسلیحات و سد نفوذ ایران و جستارگشایی از راهبردهایی نظیر موازنه‌سازی فراکرانه‌ای، شبکه‌سازی پایگاهی، طعمه‌گذاری، آتش‌بیاری معرکه، عملیات پهپادی، تشکیل ناتوی عربی و تجزیه و تسخیر نه تنها نشانگر قصد خروج نیست، بلکه حاکی از تلاش جهت حضور بلندمدت است. روش پژوهش کیفی بوده و از رویکرد تحلیل اسنادی بهره برده شده است.}, keywords_fa = {آمریکا,غرب آسیا,احاله مسئولیت,سدنفوذ,واقع‌گرایی تهاجمی}, url = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_131470.html}, eprint = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_131470_8ca4efb7a39240047b3a25b7af2b966f.pdf} } @article { author = {Karimi, Mahdi and Jafari Koshki, Tohid and Dabaghi, Javad}, title = {Analysis of the Effect of Anomic Situation of Iranian Society on Peace Indexes of the State (At the Horizon Of 2021)}, journal = {Geopolitics Quarterly}, volume = {18}, number = {66}, pages = {225-255}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Iranian Association of Geopolitics}, issn = {1735-4331}, eissn = {2538-3698}, doi = {}, abstract = {Extended Abstract Introduction In today’s world which is rife with civil wars, terrorist activities and other different forms of violence, peace is complex in nature affected by different social, economic, cultural, political and also psychological factors. One of the states of the society which may pave the way for conflict or other forms of violence is anomie. Jamieson considered this issue and argued that in social contexts where anomie is present, important objective factors such as threat of war, long histories of war, or emergence of terrorist activities might exist.The Research MethodThis research is applied in terms of its goal and is a descriptive and case study in terms of the nature and method. The data gathering procedure is based on library and field findings. The number of the statistical sample is N= 515 and SPSS software is used to analysis the data. Beside of field findings, library findings are also used to expand anomie measurement tool. Also, qualitative and quantitative methods are used to analysis the data. Finally, the data are used to suggest some policies to decrease in anomie and institutionalize peace in Iran.      Results The results of the analysis in terms of measuring anomie in Iran showed that all of the Iranian ethnicities witness high level of anomie (PAS= 3.74). The study two showed that there is an association between economic and social indexes and anomie among different ethnicities. The most important factors in this relation are: life expectancy, access to facilities, access to media and age. These factors have predictive value and can forecast anomie among different ethnicities. These association is used to propose some policies to decrease in anomie and institutionalize peace in Iran. The study three also showed that anomie perception threatens peace, and in particular, internal peace. Societies which are in anomic situation and in decay are more prone to violence and breach of peace. We found that higher level of PAS will trigger violence and threat of war and conflict. Also, the regression results show that, after controlling the effect of breakdown in leadership, breakdown in social fabric has a significant direct impact on peace index as well as its components, i.e., internal and external peace (p-value <0.05). Conclusions As one of the consequences of anomie on the societal scale, we intended to investigate peace. As argued earlier, anomie is related to a reduced level of peace and an increased level of violence and terrorism. After developing a theatrical framework to measure anomie, we conducted three studies. Study one showed that Iran has witnessed a high level of anomie; study two showed that factors including life expectancy, access to facilities, access to media and age have an association with anomie in Iran. Study three showed that higher level of PAS will trigger violence and threat of war and conflict. Using the results of study two, some policies are suggested to decrease in anomie and institutionalize peace in Iran as follows: 1) using peace education to create trust in society and promote moral standards; 2) re-distribution of rare resources to meet the needs of all citizens, development based foreign policy and reconsideration of sustainable economic development. These three facets can promote the state’s legitimacy and efficiency; 3) considering factors affecting life expectancy like meeting the needs of citizens; 4) educating and informing citizens about media and the published content; 5) promotion of civil society, culture and organizations.}, keywords = {Peace,anomie,Breakdown in Leadership,Breakdown in Social fabric,Iran}, title_fa = {تحلیل تأثیر وضعیت آنومیک جامعه ایرانی در نامساعد بودن شاخص‌های صلح در کشور(در افق سال 1400)}, abstract_fa = {ماهیت واقعیات پس از دوره جنگ سرد نشان می‌دهد ما در عصری زندگی می‌کنیم که بیش از جنگ و نزاع بین کشورها با جنگ‌های داخلی، تروریسم، گسترش تسلیحات هسته‌ای، بحران‌های زیست‌محیطی و بحران‌های اجتماعی مشخص است. آنومی به عنوان پدید آورنده بحران اجتماعی یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل تهدیدکننده صلح بالاخص در بعد داخلی است. به همین دلیل، پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از روش توصیفی - تحلیلی و با تکیه بر یافته‌های کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی سعی دارد تا به تحلیل تاثیر آنومی در وضعیت صلح در ایران بپردازد. سوال اصلی پژوهش عبارتست از اینکه "وضعیت نامساعد ایران از نظر شاخص‌های جهانی صلح، چگونه از آنومی متاثر است؟" در این راستا، مقاله حاضر در قدم اول تلاش دارد پس از بررسی و نقد مدل‌های نظری ارائه‌شده در زمینه ارتباط صلح و آنومی و بسط مدل نظری جدید، به سنجش آنومی در ایران با رویکردی ملی بپردازد. نتایج حاصله نشان می‌دهد که همه قومیت‌ها با کمی تفاوت، سطح بالایی از آنومی را تجربه می‌کنند. در قدم دوم سعی در کشف علل بروز آنومی در ایران می‌شود. مجموعه‌‍ای از متغیرهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی مورد سنجش و نتایج حاصله در ارائه توصیه‌های سیاستی مورد بهره‌برداری قرار می‌گیرد. در قدم سوم سعی می‌شود نتایج حاصل از سنجش آنومی در کنار نتایج حاصل از سنجش صلح قرار گیرد تا ارتباط دو متغیر مورد بررسی دقیق‌تر قرار گیرد. نتایج حاصله از این مطالعه نیز نشان می‌دهد که آنومی در ارتباط معناداری با صلح، بالاخص در بعد داخلی است. }, keywords_fa = {صلح,آنومی,فروپاشی کیفیت اجتماعی,فروپاشی رهبریت,ایران}, url = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_136514.html}, eprint = {https://journal.iag.ir/article_136514_1bfbca0d6ef0aabd9b692a3928f1b513.pdf} }