per
انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
1735-4331
2538-3698
2018-10-23
14
51
1
30
81748
Original Article
تبیین نقش دولت محلی در صلح سازی
The Role of Local State in Peace Building
مهدی کریمی
karimisoltan@modares.ac.ir
1
محمدرضا حافظ نیا
2
دانش آموخته جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس ، تهران، ایران
استاد جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
افزایش منازعات محلی این سوال را در ذهن ایجاد میکند که نهاد دولت محلی چگونه میتواند در ایجاد صلح در سطح محلی تأثیرگذار باشد. بر اساس تقسیمبندی صلح از نظر کمیت، پایینترین نوع صلح، صلح محلی است و مسئول بنای صلح پایدار در سطح محلی، نهاد دولت محلی است. دولت محلی در ارتباط مستقیم و بلافصل با مردم محلی است و نسبت به شرایط محلی آگاهی کامل دارد و از مشروعیت و صلاحیت عمل بیشتری نسبت به دولت ملی در این زمینه برخوردار است. بخش اعظم ادبیات صلح در زمینه صلح محلی به نقش دولت محلی در مراحل حین و بعد از منازعه در زمینه صلحسازی متمرکز است و خلاء ادبیاتی در زمینه نقش دولت محلی در صلحسازی در مرحله قبل از منازعه وجود دارد. یافتههای مطالعات صلح در زمینه نقش دولت محلی در دو مقطع زمانی حین و بعد از منازعه نیز موردی میباشند و تئوریسازی در این زمینه صورت نگرفته است. بر این اساس، مقاله حاضر به بررسی نقش دولت محلی داخلی و فراملی در صلح محلی میپردازد تا کمکی به رفع این خلاء تئوریکی بنماید. این مقاله بحث میکند که دولت محلی میتواند در ایجاد صلح در سه مرحله زمانی اشاره شده به ایفای نقش بپردازد و کارکردهای این نهاد در هر سه مقطع زمانی متفاوت است؛ هر چند که در جهت انجام این کار پیششرطهایی نیز وجود دارد.
The role of local states in peace building and prevention from violence has not yet received much attention. But, this perception is changed in recent years and national and international actors see local states as actors who can be effective in peace building. The nature of war has changed markedly in recent decades. While interstate wars have largely decreased, intrastate conflicts have dramatically increased. The new paradigm is “war amongst the people”. Most of armed conflicts are intrastate conflicts occurred in communities divided by ethnicity, language, religion and geography. The change in the number and characteristics of the conflicts increases in the potentiality of local states in peace building. Increase in local conflicts create this question that how local states can be effective in peace building? Based on the compartmentalization of peace, local peace is the lowest one in term of scale, and local state is responsible for perpetual peace in local scale. Local state is in direct relation with the public and has complete awareness to local situations and also is more legitimate and qualified than national state in this domain. The main part of peace literature in the domain of the role of local state in peace building refers to the role of local state in the phases of in-conflict and post-conflict, and the role of local state in pre-conflict phase is neglected. So, the research using descriptive-analytic method is intended to find an answer to the question that “how local state can contribute to peace building in local and international levels and how would be its functions”? This article argue that local state can contributes to peace building in the three pre-conflict, in-conflict and post-conflict phases and its functions are different in these eras by keeping some prerequisites.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_81748_051d0c43282d04c7187767d133a3da65.pdf
دولت محلی
منازعات محلی
صلح محلی
دیپلماسی شهری
صلحسازی
Local state
Local conflicts
Local peace
Urban diplomacy
Peace building
per
انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
1735-4331
2538-3698
2018-10-23
14
51
31
62
81749
Original Article
تبیین جایگاه قدرت هوشمند در سیاست خارجی چین
Explanation of the Position of Smart Power in China's Foreign Policy
افشین شامیری شکفتی
afshinshamiri@gmail.com
1
بهزاد شاهنده
shahandeh2000@yahoo.com
2
احمد سلطانی نژاد
3
محسن اسلامی
mohsen.eslaami@gmail.com
4
دانشجوی دکتری روابط بینالملل، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
استاد روابط بینالملل، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
روابط بین الملل دانشگاه تربیت مدرس،تهران،ایران
روابط بین الملل دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
بهدنبال تغییر و تحولات بینالمللی، برخی از کشورها از جمله چین به این نتیجه رسیدهاند که برای پیگیری اهداف و منافع خود ناگزیرند تا با شرایط جدید بینالمللی هماهنگ شده و نوع جدیدی از قدرت را جستجو نمایند. در پاسخ به این سؤال که سیاستگذاران جدید چین چه نوعی از قدرت را در سیاست جهانی دنبال مینمایند تا به اهداف و منافع خود دست پیدا کنند، پژوهش حاضر درصدد است تا شکل جدید قدرت که همان قدرت هوشمند است با کمک روشی توصیفی - تحلیلی در سیاست خارجی چین تبیین نماید. در واقع تحولات بینالمللی و عدم کارایی قدرت سخت و نرم صرف، رهبران نسل جدید را بهسمت منابع متعدد قدرت و ترکیب هوشمندانه آنها در عرصه بینالمللی هدایت کرده است. در شرایط کنونی، پیگیری همزمان این دو بعد قدرت(سخت و نرم) زمینه ارتقای جایگاه این کشور و مقابله با تهدیدات متعدد بینالمللی را فراهم آورده است.
Extended Abstract Intrduction In the last decades and following the international changes, many countries and in particular China have come to this conclusion which it is necessary that they adopt themselves with the new international conditions and search for a new type of power in order to pursue their goals and interests. Since applying only one type of hard or soft power will endanger the long-term interests of the country, Chinese emphasis on this key point that they require a combination of both hard power and soft power which is well known as smart power in the international arena. Methodology With a descriptive-analytical method and the conceptual framework of smart power, this study intended to explain what kind of power is pursued in China's foreign policy to pursue its goals, and how they use various power sources for their own goals and interests. Findings Over the past few decades, China's foreign policy has pursued two types of hard and soft power in the international arena. 1- Hard power: During these years, foreign policy along with other parts of the Chinese community has taken a lot of efforts to upgrade hard power sources. Economically, it has always sought to avoid international challenges and attract international resources for China's economic development process. Militarily, it has played a major role in China’s military modernization process 2- Soft power: Unlike Joseph Nye, China presented a wider definition of soft power and considered economic components as soft power. 3- The role of international institutions in the process of China's empowerment: At the moment, China's foreign policy is seeking to access their goals and interests through active participation in international organizations or the establishment of new institutions. 4- China’s economic attractions: China's foreign policy, in the framework of interdependence and win - win politics, is intended to pursue their political, security and economic interests in the regional and international arena. 5- China’s diplomacy: By pursuing comprehensive diplomacy, China's foreign policy has expanded its interactions with the other countries and international organizations, and has applied such a tool to extend its influence, power and development. 6- China’s traditional culture: although the Chinese culture has grown less than other components of power, nevertheless china’s culture has a considerable influence on the regional level. Furthermore, it is worth to mention that the China's foreign policy seeks to expand Chinese culture and language through the Confucian institutions. Analysis China's foreign policy pursues many goals in the international arena. With regard to new international changes, it believes that a combination of soft and hard power helps to reach at politic, economic and security interests. As well, reaching to a great power position and confronting new international threats, they have to follow a new form of power called smart power that combines hard and soft power. Therefore, in recent decades, especially in the Xi Jin Ping period, pursues various forms of soft and hard power such as diplomacy, culture, military modernization, economic etc. on the agenda of china’s foreign policy. Conclusion The emergence of new international conditions has led the China's foreign policy to seek a new pattern of power and security. This new pattern will be achieved within the framework of combining various sources of power. Because pursuing hard or soft power alone, cannot protect the country's long-term goals. In the shadow of the smart approach, the Chinese find more opportunity to engage with international society and its organizations. Smart power also aids to provide fairly good picture of china in its relation with others and can better counteract the challenge of China's threat.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_81749_6e567abf6a7e5d322fd967f0e470d26d.pdf
قدرت هوشمند
قدرت سخت
قدرت اقتصادی
قدرت نظامی
قدرت نرم
چین
Smart power
hard power
Economic Power
Military Power
Soft power
China
per
انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
1735-4331
2538-3698
2018-10-23
14
51
63
94
69797
Original Article
عوامل ناکامی همه پرسی جدایی اقلیم کردستان عراق
the Causes behind appointment of Kurdistan Regions Separation Referendum
مسعود اسلامی
masoudislami@gmail.com
1
علی شمس آبادی
shamsabadia70@gmail.com
2
مدیر گروه دیپلماسی دانشکده روابط بین الملل وزارت امور خارجه؛ رئیس پیشین اداره کل امور امریکای وزارت خارجه
دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد دانشکده روابط بین الملل وزارت امور خارجه
کشور عراق از سده 20 میلادی، با سیلی از بحران ها مواجه شده است. یکی از مهمترین و پیچیده ترین این بحران ها، روند جدایی طلبی و استقلال خواهی اقلیم کردستان است که اوج آن در برگزاری رفراندوم در مهر ماه سال 1396 به نمایش در آمد. بدون شک در صورت به بار نشستن رفراندوم جدایی اقلیم و ایجاد کشور مستقلی به نام کردستان، منطقه غرب آسیا وارد تنش های دامنه دار جدیدی می شد. و از این رو، شناخت عوامل ناکامی این پروژه بحران آفرین از منظرهای آکادمیک، سیاسی و راهبردی ضروری می نماید. مقاله حاضر در جستجوی پاسخ به این سوال اصلی است که "چرا رفراندوم جدایی اقلیم کردستان با شکست مواجه شد؟" و برای رسیدن به پاسخ این سوال، با تکیه بر منابع کتابخانه ای و رسانه ای، و با استفاده از رویکرد توصیفی-تحلیلی، مطابقت اقدامات بازیگران موثر این ماجرا (دولت عراق، ایران، امریکا، اسرائیل و ترکیه) را با این فرضیه می آزماییم: "سناریوی جدایی اقلیم کردستان از طریق رفراندوم به علت مخالفت عمده بازیگران خارجی و عدم همراهی برخی از عناصر مهم درون اقلیم کردستان، به شکست انجامید". در این مقاله با استفاده از نظریه واقع گرایی انگیزشی، تطابق توان و اقدامات بازیگران موثر در فرایند جدایی اقلیم را با انتظارات تصمیم گیرندگان به برگزاری همه پرسی جدایی، مورد موشکافی قرار می دهیم.
Extended Abstract Intrduction The Middle East is the ocean of crisis which there is many conflicts in everyday news about conflict among different sects, ethnics and tribes. Regarding to this fact, numerous analysts consider West Asia as the region of “Fault lines”. One of the deepest and the most controversial “Fault Lines” is “Kurdish Divergence and Separatism” which recently (Last year) resulted in holding a referendum; A referendum in which as KRG claims, up to 90% voted for “Independence”. This event concerned Iran, Turkey and Iraq because the governments felt a big threat from Kurdish separatism. Besides, some other actors such as the U.S and Israel considered the referendum, related to their interest and played role in it. Eventually despite Masoud Barezani and so many other separatists, the referendum did not culminate in a “Prosperous and independent Kurdistan”; the result of the referendum was nothing more than Frustration of separatists. In this article we are intended to scrutinize the causes of this frustration by answering this question: “Why did separation referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan face with a defeat?” Methodology To answer the question, we relied on the sources among books, articles, media and think-tank reports. Based on the studies we have done, we firstly described the roots of the referendum and in the next step we analyzed the causes of the frustration. By using media reports we made a content analysis. So in sum, the method which has been used in this article is descriptive-analytic. Findings To understand the causes of the referendum frustration, we utilized “Motivational Realism” and analyzed that political (not actual) Turkish government opposition, “Passive policy” of the U.S and “serious disagreement” of Iran and Iraq, stopped Barezani led project for an “Independent Kurdistan”. In other word, when Barezani was planning for referendum, he thought the U.S for standing against Iran’s influence, will support the move because Iraqi government was supposed to be on the Iran’s hand. According to KRG leaders’ evaluation, it was supposed Turkey government, as a result of flourished economic ties between Erbil and Ankara, will turn a blind eye to the referendum or even maybe support that. Regarding to Iran, KRG thought Iran will not have ability nor interest to dismiss the referendum because, Masoud Barezani repeatedly stated “an Independent Kurdistan will not threat neighboring countries integrity; in contrast it can help Iranian and Turkish government to solve their problem with their Kurds minorities”. And last but not the least, regarding to Iraqi government, Erbil officials was wrongly thinking that Baghdad which had received big blow from terrorism will not be able to confront with the Referendum and its outcomes. Analysis All these calculations were False. Regardless of passive policy which was taken by some Kurdish groups within KRG such as Gorran, the U.S administration insisted that “it is not a good time for holding referendum”. It means Washington was not considering Baghdad as “Iran’s Puppet State” so did not want it to be decompositioned. Ankara, in contrast of Kurdish separatist leaders’ calculations, at the political level, strongly opposed the referendum although never implemented its threats about cutting oil import or closing borders. Tehran, in such context, did not step straightly but after Baghdad’s request, did close the border and cut oil import. Obviously, I.R.I in political level strongly opposed the referendum and didn’t recognize its results. And Baghdad was not weak enough to give up; Hashd al-Shaabi, made Iraqi government strong enough to take military action against some Peshmerga positions, after political warnings. In such a context, Israel hidden and obvious supports from separatist Kurdish movement in Iraq would not be effective. So as the world saw, after holding referendum, nothing but frustration happened in KRG. Conclusion What happened for Iraqi Kurdistan after the separate referendum showed KRG officials miscalculate regarding to other actors’ reaction to hold referendum. The only actor strongly supported the move was Tel- Aviv. Washington emphasized “it is not right time for holding referendum”. Ankara although did not act economically but politically, opposed referendum. Baghdad by PMF and Iran’s supports could take some limited military action and liberate some really important areas such as Kirkuk. After these failures, Separatists in KRG figured out that they cannot put the results of the referendum into the effect. That’s why separatist referendum in KRG resulted in frustration.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_69797_02fa760a65c7bcfb3ddc474a049d825e.pdf
اقلیم کردستان
دولت کردستان
کردستان بزرگ
روندهای ژئوپلیتیک خاورمیانه
واقع گرایی انگیزشی
Kurdistan Regional Government
Great Kurdistan
Middle Eastern Geopolitical Trends
Motivational Realism
per
انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
1735-4331
2538-3698
2018-10-23
14
51
95
127
81750
Original Article
پیامدهای سیاسی- امنیتی خشک شدن دریاچه ارومیه
Political-Security Impacts of Drying of Lake Urmia
سیروس احمدی نوحدانی
sahmadi@modares.ac.ir
1
محمد اکبر زاده
2
عضو هیات علمی گروه و قطب علمی جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
کارشناس ارشد جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
پیامدهای ژئوپلیتیکی، تنشهای سیاسی، امنیتی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی ناشی از خشک شدن دریاچهها، کشورها را با مشکلات جدی مواجه میسازد. اطلاع و آگاهی مدیران سیاسی و مسئولین کشور از چالشها و مسائل زیستمحیطی منطقه آذربایجان و آگاهی از پیامدهای حاصل از این بحران زیستمحیطی میتواند در این زمینه تأثیر بهسزایی در اتخاذ سیاستهای آنها در سطح ملی و محلی داشته باشد و امنیت ملی را پایدار سازد. بدین منظور با استفاده از روششناسی توصیفی- تحلیلی، برای شناسایی پیامدهای خشک شدن دریاچه علاوه بر مصاحبه با ساکنان ارومیه، مشاهدات عینی نگارندگان و مصاحبه با کشاورزان روستاهای اطراف دریاچه و مصاحبه با مسئولین آذربایجان غربی و شرقی، پرسشنامهای تدوین و توسط اساتید و متخصصان تکمیل گردید. سپس از نرمافزار SPSS و آزمون تی تک نمونهای استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان میدهد که پیامدهای سیاسی امنیتی ناشی از خشک شدن دریاچه ارومیه عبارتند از: درگیریهای قومی و طایفهای، کاهش سطح رفاه ساکنان پیرامون دریاچه، کاهش ورود گردشگر، بیاعتمادی عمومی نسبت به عملکرد حکومت، افزایش بیکاری، چالش در مدیریت فضای منطقه، محروم شدن انسانها از زیستن در مکان مورد علاقه، حاشیهنشینی، توسعه ناهنجاریهای اجتماعی، آسیب به یکپارچگی و توسعه ملی، کاهش ضریب امنیت ملی، فقر و نابرابری، تعطیلی صنایع تبدیلی، تقویت گروههای معارض و مخالف نظام، تهدید موجودیت ملی، بقای کشور و تضعیف قدرت ملی.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Impacts of geopolitical consequences, along with political, social, economic, and security conflicts and tensions caused by the drying of lakes are indisputable. Awareness of the key beneficiaries and authorities in national, regional, and local levels, challenges and biological problems of the region of Azerbaijan and the consequences of this biological crisis can considerably affect the national security.
Methodology
Using descriptive-analytical methodology to detect the results of the lake drying, a questionnaire was designed by the authors and filled out by specialists. The SPSS software and one-sample T-test was used to analysis the results.
Findings
The findings of this study are discussed in the following headlines:
1- The threat of Salt Storms: The dryness of the lake causes sedimentation of salt sediments and the emergence of a suitable repository for the formation of dangerous micro-organisms in the event of severe storms. The salt storm phenomenon causes the destruction of agricultural lands and increase in diseases such as asthma, cancer, etc.
2- Poverty and unemployment: Considering that the villagers are poorer they do not have the necessary knowledge to deal with the hazards, their vulnerability is also higher. Reducing regional economic activity will increase in unemployment, reduce the income of indigenous people, and as a result, increase in poverty.
3- Immigration: The drying of Lake Urmia will destroy thousands hectares of agricultural lands around the lake, the smallest consequence is unemployment and migration of nearly 3 million peoples in the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan.
4- The closure of the Conversion Industry: With the destruction of agricultural lands in the lake Urmia due to the drying of deep wells in agricultural lands, 34 conversion factories were closed just in West Azerbaijan province and caused irreparable effects in all economic, industrial, social, and cultural domains, and will cause compulsory immigration of villagers and marginalization around the cities.
5- Severe damage to Tourism: The drying of Lake Urmia has worsened the tourism situation in the region. In addition to the natural environment, the drying of the Lake Urmia affects the economic and social environment of the region, in recent years, with the continuation of the ascending trend of the lake water decline, witnessed the destruction of housing estates, recreational and residential complexes, the destruction of coastal infrastructure, the unemployment of local residents, migration of residents of the villages on the margin of the lake, reduce of the tourists arrival, reduce of the incomes of the region from the tourism industry. With the drying of Lake Urmia water, investment in the lake's tourism sector has become difficult, and other marine tourism facilities in this area are not possible.
6- Outbreaks of Diseases: Comparative studies on the world's dry Lakes indicate that the prevalence of various diseases in this area is probably due to the drying of Lake Urmia. Other disadvantages include: Increasing infant mortality rates, low birth weight, late maturity, anemia, respiratory diseases, immune system damage, neurological and behavioral changes, and infectious disease. These studies also confirm the emergence of social anomalies, general distrust in government performance, the challenge of managing regional space and ethnic, tribal conflicts and marginalization.
Analysis
In this research, it became clear that the most important political security consequences of the Lake Urmia drying are as follows: increasing tribal conflicts, general distrust about government performance, challenge of managing area space, increasing marginalization, development of social anomalies, damage to national integration and development, reducing the national security coefficient, increasing poverty and inequality, strengthening opposition groups, threatening existence and weakening national power.
Conclusion
Based on the results of the one-sample T-test, field studies and library information, the impacts of ethnic and tribal conflicts, reduction in welfare level of the surrounding residents, reduction in tourism statistics, public distrust in government activities, high unemployment rates, challenges in managing the regional issues, deprivation of living in one’s favorite place, marginalization, increase in social disorders, damaging national integration and development, decrease in national security rate, poverty and inequality, closure of alternant industries, reinforcement of groups opposing the Islamic Republic, threatening the national entity and country survival, and attenuation of the national power were confirmed.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_81750_0d53986ff1db85f9451d39b9ca25f179.pdf
دریاچه ارومیه
بحران زیست محیطی
امنیت ملی
Lake Urmia
Environmental crisis
national security
per
انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
1735-4331
2538-3698
2018-10-23
14
51
128
142
81751
Original Article
تحولات اخیر جهان عرب، موازنه قوا و گروه بندی های منطقه ای جدید در خاورمیانه
The Recent Upheavals in the Arab World, Regional Balance of Power and New Grouping in the Middle East
کیهان برزگر
barzegar@cmess.ir
1
عبدلعلی قوام
2
مهدی ذاکریان
3
سید حافظ موسوی
4
دانشیار روابط بین المل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران
استاد روابط بین المل، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
دانشیار روابط بینالمل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران، تهران، ایران
دانش آموخته روابط بین المل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران
پایان جنگ سرد و وقوع حوادثی نظیرواقعه 11 سپتامبر 2001 و خیزشهای اخیر جهان عرب موجب تشدید رقابت میان قدرتهای منطقهای خاورمیانه نظیر ایران، عربستان سعودی و ترکیه بهعنوان بازیگران مستقل در چهارچوب استراتژی اتحاد و ائتلاف با قدرتهای منطقهای گردیده است. این پژوهش بهدنبال بررسی تأثیر خیزشهای اخیر جهان عرب بر موازنه قوا میان قدرتهای منطقهای خاورمیانه با استفاده از مفاهیم و مفروضات نظریه واقعگرایی نوکلاسیک (تهاجمی و تدافعی) و روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و همچنین روش تحلیل محتوا میباشد. یافتههای این پژوهش نشان میدهد که خیزشهای اخیر جهان عرب موجب تشدید رقابت میان قدرتهای منطقهای خاورمیانه در شکل فرقهگرایی یا تقابل جریانات شیعه-سنی گردیده است. در یکسو محور شیعی ایران، عراق، سوریه و حزبالله لبنان با پوشش حمایتی روسیه و در سوی دیگر محور سنی عربستان سعودی، امارات، قطر و ترکیه با پوشش حمایتی آمریکا قرار دارند. البته با برکناری محمد مرسی از قدرت و به حاشیه رانده شدن جریان اخوانالمسلمین در مصر، شاهد شکاف در محور سنی و جدا شدن ترکیه و قطر از این محور و نزدیک شدن مواضع ترکیه به ایران و روسیه میباشیم. توافقات میان ایران، روسیه و ترکیه در اجلاس آستانه و تهران را میتوان در این راستا تحلیل نمود.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Considering this Fact that 11 September, 2001 incident had enhanced Iran regional status in the Middle East, and other regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey strived to limit Iran Regional power. Arab world Upheavals provided an opportunity for them to decrease in Iran regional power in the context of Sectarianism based on balance of power. This balance of power has been become more complicated after the involvement of Russia Federation and United States.
Methodology
Using descriptive–analytic and modeling method, we considered the impact of recent Arab World Upheavals on regional balance of power in the Middle East region.
Findings
The Origin of Arab World Upheavals had been the authoritarian regimes in middle east region
Following the recent Arab World Upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt, they lost the arising opportunity due to the failure in passing nation–state process in the past years;
The recent Arab World Upheavals had intensified regional Balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East region;
Turkey and Qatar enhanced their interactions with Russia and Iran as a result of their gap with Saudi Arabia;
The United States had different foreign policy toward Middle East balance of power during Obama and Trump presidency;
Russia had active role in Syria and Iraq following the recent Arab World Upheavals.
Discussion
After the 11 September 2001 incident Saudi Arabia and Turkey was not able to limit Iran enhanced regional power as a result of US Invasion to Iraq and creating new Shiite regime. The recent Arab World Upheavals provide an opportunity for regional Sunni power such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey to control the Iran increased regional power through the sectarianism based on balance of power supported by the US new Republican Government. But they could not realized their objectives and contain Iran arising power in Middle East. As far, Turkey and Qatar as the follower of moderate Islam increased in their interactions with Russia and Iran.
Conclusion
The regional balance of power among Middle East powers following the recent Arab World Upheavals will not have a winner. It seems, it should be managed by regional or infra regional powers through their increased interactions in the region.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_81751_f5103a9f51dbb3d6069acfd7934168d0.pdf
تحولات اخیر جهان عرب
اسلام گرایی
دموکراسی
فرقه گرایی
موازنه قوای منطقه ای
Arab world upheavals
Islamism
Democracy
sectarianism
Regional balance of power
per
انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
1735-4331
2538-3698
2018-10-23
14
51
172
143
81752
Original Article
منطقه گرایی جدید و الگوی امنیت سازی ترامپ در آسیای جنوب غربی
New regionalism and security model for Tramp in Southwest Asia
زهره پوستینچی
postinchi@riau.ac.ir
1
دانشیار روابط بینالملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد رودهن
منطقهگرایی جدید در سند امنیت ملی دونالد ترامپ طراحی شده است. محور اصلی منطقهگرایی جدید امنیت سازی براساس الگوهای «منازعه نیابتی» شکل گرفته است. مفهوم «موازنه فراساحلی» محور اصلی سیاست امنیتی دونالد ترامپ در محیط منطقهای است. در سند امنیت ملی دونالد ترامپ، خاورمیانه عربی و آسیای جنوب غربی در مقایسه با سایر حوزههای منطقهای همانند نیمکره غربی، آسیای شرقی و اروپا از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردار شده است. دونالد ترامپ همچنین توانسته است که زمینه برای افزایش همکاریهای راهبردی امریکا با روسیه و چین را امکانپذیر سازد. در چنین فرایندی میزان همکاریهای اقتصادی و راهبردی ایالات متحده با قدرتهای بزرگ براساس الگوهای رقابتی و معادله قدرت هماهنگ می شود. پرسش اصلی مقاله به این موضوع اشاره دارد که: «منطقهگرایی جدید امریکا براساس چه نشانههایی شکل گرفته و چه پیامد امنیتی در محیط منطقهای و سیاست بینالملل بجا میگذارد؟» فرضیه مقاله به این موضوع اشاره دارد که: «منطقه-گرایی جدید امریکا در آسیا جنوب غربی و خاورمیانه عربی مبتنی بر موازنه فراساحلی بوده و این امر به گونهای اجتناب ناپذیر منجر به تداوم منازعات نامتقارن و نیابتی در محیط امنیتی خاورمیانه خواهد شد.» در تنظیم این مقاله از رهیافت ساختار و هویت «باری بوزان» استفاده میشود. دونالد ترامپ تلاش دارد تا منطقهگرایی جدید را براساس مؤلفههای ساختاری سازماندهی کند. در چنین فرایندی زمینه برای افزایش همکاریهای اقتصادی و راهبردی بین امریکا، روسیه و چین ایجاد میشود. محور اصلی تعارض امنیتی دونالد ترامپ را موضوعات و بازیگران منطقهای و فروملی تشکیل میدهد.
New regionalism is designed in the Donald Trump National Security Document. The main focus of the new regionalization of security is based on the patterns of "disputed conflict". The concept of "offshore balance" is central to Donald Trump's security policy in the regional environment. The main question in the article is the following: "New American regionalism is based on what signs are formed and what is the security implication in the regional and international environment?" The hypothesis of the article points to this issue. Which states that "New American regionalism in Southwest Asia and the Arab Middle East is based on offshore equilibrium, which inevitably will lead to continued asymmetric and contingent conflicts in the Middle East security environment." In setting this article from the approach The structure and identity of Barry Buzan are used. Donald Trump tries to organize new regionalism based on structural components. In such a process, there will be grounds for increased economic and strategic cooperation between the United States, Russia and China. The main focus of Donald Trump's security conflict is regional and sub-national affairs and actors.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_81752_0e0c52d0bd9d84d4cde8d6f678c54b33.pdf
"منطقه گرایی جدید"
"موازنه فراساحلی"
"مؤلفه های هویتی"
"موازنه نامتقارن"
"مدیریت بحران"
"New regionalism"
"offshore balance"
"identity components"
"asymmetric equilibrium"
"crisis management"
per
انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
1735-4331
2538-3698
2018-10-23
14
51
173
189
81753
Original Article
نظریه گریز (تبیین واگرایی در نظامهای سیاسی – اجتماعی)
Digression Theory (Explanation of Divergence in Socio-political Systems)
مصیب قره بیگی
m.garehbaygi@ut.ac.ir
1
محمود واثق
mahmoodvasegh@ut.ac.ir
2
دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران
استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران
هدف پژوهش حاضر، وضع نظریه گریز است. این نظریه، قابلیت تبیین رفتارهای نظامهای منطقهای و هرگونه نظام/سیستم/تشکل/ائتلاف اجتماعی-سیاسی و نیز پیشبینی سرانجام آنها را دارد. در خصوص نظامهای منطقهای بهعنوان ائتلافهای جغرافیایی، هدف نظریه گریز تبیین فرایند شکلگیری چالشهای واگرایی در این نوع نظامها است. این نظریه با معرفی مفروضات منطقی، الزامات و مقتضیات گریز یک عضو از ائتلافهای منطقهای را شناسایی کرده است و با معرفی اصول، مفروضات بنیادی، شاخصها و عوامل، مقیاس تحلیل و حوزهها، چارچوبی نظری برای مطالعه، فهم و پیشبینی کنشها و وضعیت آینده نظامهای منطقهای ارائه داده است. به دیگر سخن، نظریه گریز به این پرسشهای بنیادی پاسخ داده است؛ چرا و چگونه در یک نظام منطقهای، گسست بهوجود میآید؟ با مطالعه رفتار نظامهای منطقهای، چگونه میتوان به پیشبینی نوع و نحوه رفتار آنها در آینده دست یافت؟ برخورداری از چه شاخصها، وضعیت و عرصههایی میتواند بسترهای گسست و جدایی یک یا چند عضو از یک نظام منطقهای را محقق سازد؟ چه نمونههای تاریخی را در راستای نظریه گریز میتوان بهعنوان شاهد ذکر کرد؟ در نظامهای منطقهای موجود، چه پیشبینیهایی را میتوان درباره آینده این نظامها بهدست داد؟ نظریه گریز با مقیاس تحلیلی میانفردی تا جهانی، میتواند نوع و نحوه گسست در تشکلها، نهادها و سیستمهای اجتماعی-سیاسی را تبیین و رفتارهای احتمالی آن در آینده را پیشبینی کند.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The paper is intended to introduce and propose “digression theory”. The theory is capable of explanation and prediction of the regional system and all kind of social-political institution, system or coalition. Division/digression theory can predict the ultimate of systems and organizations according to some specific indexes. Particularly, the aim of the theory is explanation of the divergence challenges in regional systems as a geographical coalition. Digression theory has recognized the necessity and circumstances of an organ/member dividing from a coalition with introducing of logical hypothesis. Also, it has provided a logical criterion to study, explain and predict the present and future terms of regional systems by commencing principles, hypothesis, indexes and factors, analysis unit and scales. Below questions can be answered by the logical criteria of digression theory: How and why is made a digression or secession in a regional system? How can be predicted the future of a system in according of its behaviors? Which indexes, settings and positions can fortify an organ/member into dividing from a system? Which instances prove the developments along with the theory? What future can be predicted to the present regional systems with referencing to the digression theory?
Methodology
The paper is a fundamental research from the point of typology and from the purpose is a theory making (theorizing) in order to problem resolving (mental and philosophical problem) one. The analysis of paper is based on logical and epistemological theorem and reasoning. The paper’s references are absolutely improvisation.
Result and discussion
Digression theory has two main principals as follows:
Extension and Secession: according to this principal all kinds of systems or organizations will be encountered by secession as well as extension. In other words, the bigger in quality and quantity, the bigger in separation and breaking. Increasing in the space and possibilities in an organization or system brings hardest competitions among the organ or members. Members of a system attempt to achieve in top of the hierarchy order and as a central positionality dominate on others. By increasing in tension and competition, the space of dividing and making of independent system is prepared.
Stability: This principal theorizes that foundation of systems determine the quality of their stability. From this perspective, all kind of systems are made from three foundations:
1- Economic Oriented Systems (Systems are made from materialistic and economic indexes);
2- Security Oriented Systems (kind of systems which military and protective issues have made them);
3- Cultural Oriented Systems (coalition and organizing based on religion, thought, rituals and ideological commons).
The last one (cultural oriented systems) is the most stable, conservative and diehard among other three system foundations. Religion as a cultural system is the best example of stable cultural systems from the past to the present.
Division/digression theory has two fundamental hypotheses as follows:
Philosophical hypothesis: Digression theory is based on primordial human nature. This nature in Islamic philosophy is called by “human as liberation entity”. According to this nature, human being cannot stand domination. This covenant is significant in that it asserts that an understanding of the origin of man is something deeply inherent to and natural within every person. Any disconnection from this memory is referred to as being ‘forgetful’ within the scripture, Hadith literature and commentary. The Quran constantly implores people to recall and remember. Scholars suggest that the call to remember throughout the Quran is in fact a call to remember this particular moment in their spiritual history. Suggestions are also made that where people recognize people with ease, it is usually as a memory from this event. There are many scholarly perspectives taken on the significance of this covenant. It is understood as marking the beginning of human consciousness with mankind making their first conscious response to the divine question 'Am I not your lord?'. Some also see it as being relevant to the Islamic principle of unity as the entirety of mankind was said to have been assembled on the plane on this date.
Logical hypothesis: Reasonable and logical assumes of the theory are such as bellows: existing of a central-periphery structure, being of relatively hegemonic relations in the structure, will and power to division and digression, possibility and feasibility of dividing and digression, ex-systemic relations and moods, an aggressive organ or member.
Conclusion
Centre-periphery orders bring some disputes and tensions between the members of a system. By increasing in central domination some of the members with feasible indexes decide to be divided, indexes like strong economy and capitals, political parties and structures, historical-cultural wealth, outer systemic relation and interest in other members in other systems and finally, third outer systemic member intervention. The historical examples like Islam Prophet dividing Pre-Arabic system and Iranians dividing Pro-Arabic system are some most instances of digression. According to the digression theory, it is predicted that along with Qatar, states such as Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Oman will be divided from Persian Gulf Council Corporation (GCC). Also, in European Union along with Britain other states will be separated such as Poland, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Norway.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_81753_68ab55437d967e5bae7a0862c7efe369.pdf
گریز
واگرایی
نظام منطقهای
نظام سیاسی- اجتماعی
مرکز - پیرامون
Digression
Divergence
Regional System
Socio-political systems
Core-Periphery
per
انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران
فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
1735-4331
2538-3698
2018-10-23
14
51
190
219
77055
Original Article
تحلیل اقدامات ژئوپلیتیکی داعش بر اساس مدل مفهومی والرشتاین – تیلور
Geopolitical Analysis of ISIS Based on the Wallerstein-Taylor Conceptual Model
جلیل دارا
j.dara@modares.ac.ir
1
محسن خاکی
khaki@yahoo.com
2
استادیار دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران
اقدامات ژئوپلیتیکی داعش را میتوان به عنوان پاسخی به عملکرد اقتصادی-سیاسی کشورهای مرکز نسبت به کشورهای پیرامون در قالب پدیده جهانی شدن و عدم شناسایی فرهنگی-هویتی ملّتهای پیرامونی از سوی قدرتهای مرکز دانست. پدیدهی "داعش" به عنوان جریانی نوظهور سبب بروز تغییرات عمدهی ای در منطقهی خاورمیانه به طور ویژه و در سراسر جهان شده است. اقدامات داعش را می توان در سه حوزهی سرزمین و مرز، جمعیّت و ملّت و دولت و نظام سیاسی تحلیل نمود در این پژوهش به دنبال پاسخ به این سؤال هستیم که از منظر جغرافیای سیاسی، داعش نسبت به پدیده جهانی شدن چه واکنشی از خود نشان داده است؟ فرضیه ما این است که با توجه به اینکه جغرافیای تولّد و رشد جریان داعش مربوط به کشورهای حوزه پیرامونی و استثمار شده به خصوص در خاور میانه است، مطابق نظریه نظام جهانی والرشتاین و سیاست شناسایی تیلور میتوان گفت داعش، در سه حوزهی سرزمین، جمعیّت و حکومت، در تقابل با نظام جهانی واکنش نشان داده است.
Extended Abstract Introduction The phenomenon of ISIL as the latest covert of terrorism has expanded into new dimensions of the possibility of spreading brutal violence. This phenomenon is known as a new threat to existing order in three areas of territory, population and state type and making it an unpredictable phenomenon. Regardless of the necessity of designing for a post-conflict encounter with this flow, it should be for the existential reasons of such thinking, it began to face and collide at the same stage of the cause. Because unbridled terrorism, like ISIS, has had an unlimited reaction to its surroundings, which has turned it into a security hurdle, even for countries that are thousands of kilometers from its geographical range. Under these circumstances, it is likely that, by eliminating ISIL from the military and political equations of the world, yet due to lack of attention to the foundations of ISIS, other examples of this would lead to security crises in the world. Methodology The method of research in this research has been based on the "historical method" and "descriptive method" due to the historical origins and dimensions of the formation of ISIS and its reaction to the phenomenon of the existing world order. The library method is used to collect data. And descriptive sections have also been analyzed. Findings ISIL's geopolitical efforts can be considered as an answer to the political economic performance of Central Asian countries towards marginalized countries, given the colonial and historical exploitation of the centuries and the lack of recognition of the cultural identity of the nations enclosed by the central powers. ISIL's phenomenon as an emerging trend has brought about great changes in the Middle East region, especially around the world. The question of this research is that from a geopolitical point of view, Isis's actions regarding the economic and cultural order - the identity created by the dominant and centralized countries, is analyzed? The findings of this study indicate that the geography of the birth and growth of ISIS is related to peripheral and exploited countries, especially in the Middle East, According to Wallerstein's theory of the Welshstein system and Taylor's identification policy, it can be said that ISIS is attempting, in the form of violent terrorism, to act as a "legitimate defense" and justify its geopolitical reaction in three areas of land and border, population and nation, and government and system Political among Sunni Muslims and Muslims with Sunni radical tendencies.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_77055_4a0218923dca0584a88c131531995a68.pdf
داعش
ژئوپلیتیک
جهانی شدن
والرشتاین
تیلور
ISIL
Geopolitics
globalization
Wallerstein
Talor