ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
جابهجایی ژئوپلیتیکی قدرت و امنیت در آسیای جنوبغربی
نقاط عطف تاریخی عموماً براساس تغییرات ابزاری و تحولات تکنولوژیک حاصل میشود. تغییرات تکنولوژیک در وهله نخست زمینه دگرگونیهای بینالمللی و در وهله دوم زمینه برخورد بازیگران با پیشینه رقابتی ناشی از مولفههای ایدئولوژیک، تاریخی و ژئوپلیتیکی بودهاند. در سالهای پایانی دهه دوم قرن 21 نیز شاهد تحولات شگرف تکنولوژیک و ظهور اندیشههای نئوناسیونالیستی در طیف گستردهای از کشورهای جهان میباشیم. مصادیق تشدید اندیشههای نئوناسیونالیستی در آمریکا با قدرت گرفتن ترامپ، در روسیه در چارچوب اندیشه سیاسی و جایگاه پوتین در ساختار قدرت سیاسی و در اروپا ظهور اندیشههای راست افراطی چالشهای بنیادینی را برای اتحادیه اروپا به وجود آورده است. در همن چارچوب ناسیونالیسم ایرانی متأثر از فرهنگ و هویت را میتوان در واکنش فراگیر گروههای اجتماعی ایران به ترور و هدفگیری سردار سلیمانی مشاهده نمود. فرآیندهای یادشده میتواند پیشرانه تغییرات راهبردی و ژئوپلیتیکی محسوب شود. شهادت سردار سلیمانی انعکاس منطق کنش عملیاتی، تاکتیکی و راهبردی آمریکا برای تغییر در سازوکارهای موازنه قدرت منطقهای است. هرگونه اقدام نظامی و کنش متقابل به آن از سوی سایر بازیگران را میتوان بخشی از واقعیتهای نهفته رقابت ژئوپلیتیکی کشورها در مناطق بحرانی و امنیتی دانست. این مقاله با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و بهرهگیری از نظریه واقعگرایی ساختاری تهاجمی برای تغییر در موازنه و ژئوپلیتیک قدرت در پی پاسخ به این پرسش است که: «ژئوپلیتیک قدرت و امنیت منطقهای در آسیای جنوبغربی بعد از ترور سردار سلیمانی، چه ویژگیهایی دارد و چه تغییراتی در معادله قدرت بازیگران به وجود آورده است؟» فرضیه مقاله به این موضوع اشاره دارد که: «ترور سردار سلیمانی منجر به تشدید اقدامات محدود کننده و مقابلهجویانه آمریکا علیه ایران و پیش زمینۀ ایجاد موازنه ضعف در محیط منطقهای محسوب میشود».
https://journal.iag.ir/article_114819_4656eea2f2543e91c13e4a1f4a89b37d.pdf
2020-09-22
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ژئوپلیتیک قدرت
امنیت منطقهای
ناسیونالیسم جدید
موازنه منطقهای
عباس
مصلی نژاد
mossalanejad@ut.ac.ir
1
فوق دکتری سیاستگذاری راهبردی و استاد علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
LEAD_AUTHOR
Abrams, Elliott (2019), Trump versus the Government Can America Get Its Story Straight? Foreign Affairs, Vol. 98, No. 1, January/February 2019.
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Organski Abramo and Jack Kugler (1980), The War Ledger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
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Patrik, Stewart M. (2017), Trump and world order; the return of self-help, Foreign affairs, Vol. 96, No. 2, March / April.
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Pompeo, Michael R (2018), Confronting Iran; The Trump Administration’s Strategy, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 97, No. 6, November and December.
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Richmond, Oliver (2019), Interventionary order and its methodologies: the relationship between peace and intervention, Third world Quarterly, Vol. 41, No. 2, PP. 207-227.
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Sune, Engin (2019), Internationalization, global capitalism and the integrations of Iran, Third world Quarterly, Vol. 41, No. 2, PP. 359-377.
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32
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
بازتابهای سیاسی مهاجرتهای بینالمللی از خاورمیانه به اروپا
جابجابهجایی انسان در فضای جغرافیایی که بعنوان مهاجرت از آن یاد میشود، به شکل داوطلبانه یا اجباری است. در سالهای اخیر، منطقه خاورمیانه به واسطه جنگها و منازعات در کشورهای افغانستان، عراق، سوریه، یمن و مصر؛ و ظهور گروههای افراطی با چالش مواجه شده است. به همین دلیل بخش گستردهای از شهروندان این منطقه به سایر مناطق جهان که از ثبات سیاسی و وضعیت اقتصادی مطلوبی برخوردارند، مهاجرت کردهاند. قاره اروپا یکی از مقاصد اصلی این مهاجرتها بوده است. از همینرو بررسی بازتابهای سیاسی آن در اروپا مسئله پژوهش حاضر است. این تحقیق با استفاده از روش، توصیفی - تحلیلی انجام شده، شیوه گردآوری اطلاعات کتابخانه ای بوده که با استفاده از اسناد، مقالات و منابع اینترنتی جمعآوری شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می-دهد با ورود مهاجرتهای گسترده در اروپا بویژه موج مهاجرتهای اخیر، قدرتگیری روزافزون احزاب راست، خشونت نسبت به مهاجران، تشدید ملیگرایی و حساسیتهای ناشی از آن و در نهایت رشد اندیشههای واگرایانه در اتحادیه اروپا از پیامدهای مهاجرتهای گسترده به اروپا است.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_106873_b7ceb12832a21d76ebbaebb489fd0509.pdf
2020-09-22
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مهاجرت
خاورمیانه
اروپا
بازتاب سیاسی
ابراهیم
رومینا
e.roumina@modares.ac.ir
1
عضو هیأت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
LEAD_AUTHOR
سیده زهرا
علوی شوشتری
artaalavi72@yahoo.com
2
گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
AUTHOR
محمدرضا
حافظ نیا
3
استاد جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
AUTHOR
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
نظریه چرخه قدرت و تحولات قدرت ایالات متحده؛ بستری برای تحلیل رفتار سیاست خارجی
تحول سیستم بینالملل پس از پایان جنگ سرد و سیاست خارجی ایالات متحده به عنوان ابرقدرت باقیمانده در سیستم، از مهمترین عواملی هستند که سیاست بینالملل و سیاست خارجی تمامی بازیگران سیستم بینالملل اعم از دولتی و غیردولتی را شکل میدهند. به همین منظور، این نوشتار بر آن است تا با پاسخگویی به این سوال که قدرت آمریکا در سالهای بعد از فروپاشی اتحاد جماهیر شوروری سابق چه تحولاتی را از سر گذرانده است، بستر لازم را برای درک روند تحولات نظامبینالملل و فهم سیاست خارجی آمریکا و به تبع آن سایر بازیگران سیستم فراهم آورد.نظریه چرخه قدرت به سبب نقاط قوت خود در بررسی روند تحولات و تحلیل آن، به عنوان چارچوب نظری انتخاب شده است. در ابتدا دادههای مربوط به هشت شاخص قدرت ملی برای هشت قدرت برتر نظام بینالملل در بازه ۱۹۸۹-۲۰۱۷ گردآوری شده و سپس با محاسبه قدرت نسبی برای هر یک از هشت بازیگر مورد نظر، چرخه قدرت آمریکا ترسیم شده است. دادهها با استفاده از پایگاههای اینترنتی جمعآوری شده و تجزیه و تحلیل آن به صورت کمی صورت گرفته است. چرخه ترسیم شده نشان میدهد که آمریکا در ۱۹۹۸ در نقطه بیشینه قدرت نسبی خود در نظام بینالملل قرار داشته و پس از آن وارد فاز افول قدرت نسبی شده است و در سال ۲۰۱۲ سرعت کاهش قدرت نسبی آن از افول فزاینده به افول کاهنده بدل شده است.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_96714_a9f38680ff4967f14cadf2dec739d230.pdf
2020-09-22
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چرخه قدرت
قدرت نسبی
نقش
نظام بینالملل
ایالات متحده
محمد
جمشیدی
mjamshidiut@gmail.com
1
گروه مطالعات منطقهای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
AUTHOR
زکیه
یزدان شناس
yazdanshenas3059@gmail.com
2
گروه مطالعات منطقه ای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
LEAD_AUTHOR
Acharya, A; Barry, Buzan (2010), Non-Western International Relations Thepry: Perspective on and beyond Asia, New York: Routledge.
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
مطالعه ی تطبیقی ادراک و الگوی فدراسیون روسیه در مدیریت بحرانهای سوریه و اوکراین بر اساس مدل مکعب بحران
بحرانهای سوریه و اوکراین منافع و امنیت فدراسیون روسیه را در خاورمیانه و شرق اروپا در معرض خطر قرار داده است، به همین دلیل این کشور گریزی از مدیریت تحولات ندارد. از زمره مدلهای نظری که سعی بر آن است تا ادراک و الگوی مدیریتی فدراسیون روسیه بر اساس آن تحلیل شود، مکعب بحران است. نوشتار حاضر در پی پاسخ به این پرسش است که با توجه به مدل مکعب بحران، ادراک فدراسیون روسیه نسبت به بحرانهای سوریه و اوکراین چگونه بوده و با استفاده از چه سازوکارهایی اقدام به مدیریت تحولات کرده است؟ سه مؤلفهی محوری مدل مکعب بحران، عنصر تهدید، زمان و مقدار آگاهی است. از سوی دیگر کنشگران هنگام رویارویی با وضعیتهای بحرانی غالباً سه الگوی مدیریتِ نرمافزای، سختافزاری و هوشمند را گزینش میکنند. فرضیه پژوهش این است که با توجه به اینکه در بحران اوکراین از جانبی سطح تهدید شدید بوده، زمان پاسخگویی کم و میزان غافلگیری در سطح بالایی قرار دارد، لذا ارزشهای اساسی روسیه در نقطه A مکعب مورد تهدید جدی میباشد، از همین روی الگوی مدیریتِ هوشمند با تأکید بر رویکرد تهاجمی و نظامی در دستور کار قرار گرفته است.از سوی دیگر بواسطه اینکه تحولات سوریه ذیل بحرانهای کند یا بطئی تعریف میشود و در نقطه C مکعب قرار دارد، میزان تهدید خفیف بوده، زمان زیادی جهت پاسخگویی در اختیار قرار است و البته میزانی از غافلگیری نیز وجود دارد، لذا امنیت سرزمینی و ارزشهای حیاتی فدراسیون روسیه به صورت مستقیم تحت خطر نیست، بنابراین الگوی مدیریتِ هوشمند با تمرکز بر اهرمهای نرمافزاری انتخاب شده است. این پژوهش به روش تطبیقی صورت گرفته و محل رجوع به دادهها، اسناد و منابع معتبر کتابخانهای است.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_96715_c2953d89bbd46f7c982fbfa95b04cbec.pdf
2020-09-22
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فدراسیون روسیه
اوکراین
سوریه
مکعب بحران
مدیریت بحران
محمدجواد
فتحی
f.mjavad@yahoo.com
1
دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی، گرایش آینده پژوهی مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی، دانشگاه شاهد
LEAD_AUTHOR
محمدجواد
موسی نژاد
mjmmjm2006@yahoo.com
2
دانش آموخته دکتری علوم سیاسی و مدرس دانشگاه، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
AUTHOR
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36
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
عوامل موثر بر ناکارآمدی نظام تقسیمات کشوری در سطح محلی (موردمطالعه: شهرستان ارومیه)
پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر ناکارآمدی نظام تقسیمات کشوری در سطح محلی در شهرستان ارومیه انجام شده است. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش، کیفی است. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که نخست، نظام تقسیمات کشوری بهعنوان فرآیندی پیچیده و چندبعدی در سطح محلی تحت تأثیر مستقیم سیاستهای نظام متمرکز عمل کرده و منجر به شکلگیری یک سیستم کارآمد نشده است. سپس نظام تقسیمات کشوری در قالب عواملی همچون سیاستهای تمرکزگرایی، ضعف توجه به الزامات محلی ـ منطقهای در تدوین قوانین، نگاه تکساحتی در قانون تقسیمات کشوری، حاکمیت ملاحظات امنیتی ـ سیاسی، دخالت ذینفوذان رسمی و غیررسمی، ضعف توجه به ساختار محیط طبیعی و اکولوژیک، ضعف توجه به جغرافیای فرهنگی، ضعف توجه به موقعیت مکانی در تعیین مرکزیت سیاسی و عدم وجود کارشناس متخصص تقسیمات کشوری در سطح محلی دچار ناکارآمدی شده است.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_96716_aeb284b368ff9770a18acbacfb2ecf6e.pdf
2020-09-22
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تقسیمات کشوری
سطح محلی
روستا
ارومیه
وحید
ریاحی
vrali2004@yahoo.com
1
دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
AUTHOR
حسن
افراخته
afrakhtehh@yahoo.com
2
استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
AUTHOR
شمسی
صالح پور
salehpor_p@yahoo.com
3
دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
LEAD_AUTHOR
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
بررسی نقش قدرت های منطقه ای در شکل دهی به نظم امنیتی خاورمیانه (2003 تا 2011)
خاورمیانه همواره از مداخلات قدرتهای خارجی رنج برده و این مداخلات نقش مهمی در شکلدهی و مدیریت الگوهای نظم امنیتی در این مجموعه امنیتی منطقهای داشته است. با وجود تداوم مداخلات خارجی، پس از حمله آمریکا به عراق در سال 2003، شاهد وقوع تحولاتی در این منطقه هستیم که موجب افزایش توان بازیگری قدرتهای منطقهای و نقش تعیینکننده آنها در معادلات سیاسی و امنیتی در خاورمیانه شده است. به همین دلیل، سرنگونی صدام حسین در سال 2003 به نقطه عطف مهمی در تحولات امنیتی خاورمیانه تبدیل شد که متأثر از آن، از این زمان غالب تحولات امنیتی منطقه حول محور بازیگران و قدرتهای منطقهای میچرخد. بنابراین پرسشی که مطرح میشود این است که قدرتهای منطقهای چه نقشی در نظم امنیتی خاورمیانه از سال 2003 تا زمان خیزشهای عربی داشتهاند؟ در پاسخ به این پرسش باید گفت، حمله سال 2003 آمریکا به عراق موجب بههم خوردن نظام توزیع قدرت در خاورمیانه و برجسته شدن نقش قدرتهای منطقهای در شکلدهی به توازن قدرت جدید در منطقه شد. در پژوهش پیش رو برای اثبات فرضیه، از روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و برای گردآوری دادهها، از روش کتابخانهای و منابع اینترنتی استفاده شده است.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_108153_a54c22cf483186b967e4c37e9fc1382c.pdf
2020-09-22
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خاورمیانه
نظم امنیتی
قدرتهای منطقهای
حمله آمریکا به عراق
موازنه قدرت
مهدی
جوکار
joukar114@yahoo.com
1
پژوهشکده مطالعات فناوری
LEAD_AUTHOR
بهاره
سازمند
sazmand_bahareh@yahoo.com
2
دانشیار گروه مطالعات منطقهای، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
AUTHOR
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1
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
بررسی تاثیر برجام بر سیاست و راهبردهای منطقه ای ایران: تداوم یا تغییر
یکی از مهمترین موضوعاتی که پس از برجام در بین اندیشمندان روابط بینالملل و محافل سیاسی مطرح شد، این بوده که سیاستهای امنیتی ایران در پسابرجام در منطقه به چه شکلی ادامه پیدا میکنند. سوال تحقیق بدین صورت ارائه می گردد: برجام چه تأثیری برتداوم و استمرار سیاستها و راهبردهای منطقهای ایران دارد؟ فرضیهای که در پاسخ به سوال مذکور مطرح شده این است که «بازیگران عرصه توافق جامع هستهای(1+5)ضمن تثبیت و تداوم نظم هستهای در منطقه ژئواستراتژیکی خاورمیانه با توسل و بهرهگیری از ابزارهای همچون مهار و موازنه،اتحاد و ائتلافهای نوظهور منطقهای، کاهش توان بازدارندگی دفاعی، و تضعیف محور مقاومت بدنبال تغییر در سیاستها و راهبردهای منطقه ای ایران می باشد.» روش پژوهش بکار گرفته در اینجا با توجه به ماهیت تحقیق، «توصیفی- تحلیلی» است. برای تبین موضوع پژوهش از نظریه واقعگرایی نئوکلاسیک بهره گرفتهایم.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_114821_9146c5f08ec83d37b3c251c9b77dc80c.pdf
2020-09-22
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202
ایران
برجام
سیاست منطقهای
مهار و موازنه
یونس
سلمانی جلودار
younes.salmani@yahoo.com
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دانشگاه ازاد-واحد علوم و تحقیقات -دانشکده حقوق ،الهیات و علوم سیاسی
LEAD_AUTHOR
کیهان
برزگر
kbarzegar@gmail.com
2
دانشگاه ازاد-واحد علوم و تحقیقات -دانشکده حقوق ،الهیات و علوم سیاسی
AUTHOR
مهدی
ذاکریان
mzakerian@yahoo.com
3
دانشگاه آزاد -واحد علوم و تحقیقات -دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی
AUTHOR
حمید
احمدی
hahmadi@ut.ac.ir
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استاد دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی- دانشگاه تهران
AUTHOR
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
تحلیل ژئوپلیتیکی تهدید تروریسم بوکوحرام در غرب آفریقا
پیدایش و رشد گروههای سلفی از دهه 1990 میلادی از معضلات و بحرانهای غرب آفریقا است. در این میان، نیجریه، بزرگترین کشور مسلماننشین قاره آفریقا، طی سه دهه گذشته از مهمترین مناطق فعالیت گروههای سلفی بوده به گونهای که فعالیت گروههای افراطی در این کشور موجب شکلگیری بحران و همچنین تسری ناامنی و بیثباتی به فراسوی مرزهای این کشور شده است. گونهشناسی عملکرد بوکوحرام به عنوان یکی از مهمترین گروههای تروریستی در منطقۀ غرب آفریقا که ادعای برپایی خلافت اسلامی دارد، دارای سویههای مهم ژئوپلیتیکی است؛ پژوهش حاضر به روش توصیفی-تحلیلی پسارویدادی انجام و دادهها و اطلاعات آن بر مبنای تحلیل روندها، ارزیابی میشود. این پژوهش بر مبنای آموزههای«نظریه امواج بینالمللی تروریسم» ناظر بر این پرسش است که گسترش گروه تروریستی بوکوحرام چه تأثیری بر ژئوپلیتیک نیجریه و منطقه غرب آفریقا دارد و این فرضیه را مورد آزمون قرار میدهد که بوکوحرام با بهرهگیری از نیروهای سلفی در غرب آفریقا و با استفاده از الگوی موج چهارم تروریسم بینالمللی میتواند تغییرات ژئوپلیتیکی را در نیجریه و منطقه غرب آفریقا موجب شود. یافتههای پژوهش همچنین نشان میدهد که فعالیتهای بوکوحرام در غرب آفریقا شباهتهای قابل توجهی با فعالیتهای داعش در غرب آسیا دارد.
https://journal.iag.ir/article_114565_c755b7934712a2d7bef01364fc466369.pdf
2020-09-22
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تروریسم
ژئوپلیتیک
بوکوحرام
نیجریه
غرب آفریقا
مجید
رسولی
m.rasouli@modares.ac.ir
1
استادیار گروه ژئوپلیتیک مرکز مطالعات آفریقا، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
LEAD_AUTHOR
شهروز
شریعتی
shariati@modares.ac.ir
2
استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
AUTHOR
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