تحلیل نظری مدل مدیریت آشوب در ژئوپلیتیک جهانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین‌الملل، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران شمال، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

3 استاد علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

بازی بزرگ علم مدل‌سازی از جهان واقعی است و هر نظریه علمی دستگاهی از قاعده‌ها را برای این بازی تعیین می کند. سیستم‌های آشوب به عنوان مدل‌های تحلیلی از ظرفیت نظری- عملی برای تحلیل فرآیندهای واقعی به ویژه در حوزه‌های راهبردی و ژئوپلیتیکی برخوردار است.
نوشتار حاضر به اثبات این ادعا می‌پردازد که جهان آشوب‌زده است و امنیت در یک جهان آشوب‌زده دچار دگردیسی بسیط شده و این پرسش را مطرح می‌کند که مدل مدیریت آشوب در ژئوپلیتیک جهانی چیست؟ نظام بین‌الملل کنونی مملو از نشانه‌های آشوب همچون عدم قطعیت، تداخل و پیش‌بینی‌ناپذیری است که می‌تواند در پیوند با ژئوپلیتیک جهانی نظم برانداز و در عین حال نظم‌ساز باشد. 
در این پژوهش ابتدا تلاش می‌شود تا با بهره‌گیری از روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و مدل‌سازی، مفهوم آشوب تبیین و سپس با پیونددهی نظریه‌های آشوب و الگوهای تاریخی آن، روند مدیریت آشوب در حوزه‌های ژئوپلیتیکی مورد بررسی قرار گیرد

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Theoretical Analysis of Chaos Management Model in Global Geopolitics

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sohrab Enami Alamdari 1
  • Nozar Shafiee 2
  • Ebrahim Motaghi 3
1 Phd Student International Relations, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
3 Professor of Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract     
Introduction
Many scientists believe that 20th-century knowledge is known only by three theories: relativity theory, quantum theory, and chaos theory. They and believe that studying the phenomenon of chaos will be one of the hottest discoveries in the 21st century.
Chaos theory, as the theory of order in disorder, charts a future that, by accepting it, the past of that process must be forgotten. The turbulence is the fluid dynamics over time and space that time and place go out of their cycle.
In this context, turbulence systems can be used as an operational-strategic model in the fields of international relations and geopolitics.
Methodology
The present study is a descriptive-analytical research using library-document-gathering method that attempts to analyze and explain the state of turbulence in global geopolitics within the framework of theoretical modeling.
Findings
The findings of this study are discussed under the following themes:
1.Chaos systems interact with geopolitical environments like living things
As the system approaches adaptive equilibrium, it needs fundamental internal changes that lead to dynamic adaptation instead of adaptation and adaptation to the environment.
2.Creating a dynamic structure and pattern of behavior in a turbulent systems
In the management of chaotic geopolitical environment and with the attitude of chaos theory, the relationship of the components should be such that each component can have an independent and dynamic relationship with other components while performing its duties independently.
3.The role of leadership in balancing the system is of paramount importance
In a turbulent situation, it makes it difficult to make decisions that are unpredictable or at least certain. In such a situation and process, clearly defining priorities and explaining the structure of cause and effect can lead to collective cooperation in decision-making.
4.Creating short-term decision-making procedures instead of long-term ones with flexible planning
In chaos management, consensual and executive consensus is of symbolic and functional importance.
5.Creating order-making, Equilibrium and Balancer processes
In chaos management, the basis should be stability management and maintaining stability.
Analysis
The big game of science is modeling from the real world, and any scientific theory sets out some rules for this game.
Chaotic systems are one of the areas in which modeling can provide role models for researchers in international relations and political geography to find ways of strategic management. This paper proves the claim that the world is in turmoil and security in a turbulent world is directly transformed by such a situation.
The current international system is full of signs of chaos, such as uncertainty, interference, and unpredictability that can be disruptive and orderly in relation to global geopolitics.
In this research, the concept of chaos is examined followed by the chaos management patterns in the link between the components of security chaos in global geopolitics.
Conclusion
In the area of chaos component management, some of the key structures such as adaptation, overlap, adjustment, transition planning, self-organization, wheel management, branch management, complex adaptive structures creation, random pattern management, and geopolitical network management are of key importance.
In the strategic area of limiting shared threats, enhancing information networks, rapid and incremental operations, linking infrastructures and in the area of management, providing interim and mid-term agendas, crisis management and prioritizing needs and needs are chaos management processes

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • chaos
  • order in disorder
  • Global Geopolitics
  • chaos management
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