عنوان مقاله [English]
This research aims at investigating Iran's security and defense policies after JCPOA. One of the most important issues that have been posed among international relations and political science experts is how Iran's security and defense policies will continue in post-JCPOA era. The research question dealt with in this research is as follows: What is the impact of JCPOA on Iran’s security and defense policies? The hypothesis is that “the comprehensive nuclear agreement inspired by the teachings and norms of the nonproliferation regime has not only solved Iran's nuclear crisis and strengthened international peace and security, but also contributed to enhancing Iran's international status and strengthening Iran's regional influence and role. Various analysts and politicians have analyzed the post-JCPOA issue from different perspectives. Considering JCPOA's constituents, some examined its form and content. On the one hand, there are proponents of the JCPOA agreement who believe that reducing tensions over nuclear issues through cooperation can produce a trusting experience and lead to more cooperation and confidence-building. Opponents of the nuclear deal, on the other hand, criticize it, arguing that it has not led to any significant change in Iran's regional policy, and that the deal has in fact strengthened Iran economically which results in Iran's more aggressive approach.
Based on the nature of research “descriptive-analytic" method was chosen for the current research. The research is framed in neoclassical realism school. In neoclassical realism, the aim is to refine neo-realist theory by adding internal mediating variables among systemic motives and stimuli and foreign policy decisions. Accordingly, in foreign policy analysis, the internal characteristics of countries such as the ability of policymakers to extract resources to pursue and achieve foreign policy goals are examined.
The findings of this study are discussed under the following themes:
Iran's regional policies after JCPOA are the outcome of national and international systemic factors.
JCPOA has strengthened Iran's activism in pursuing its regional and strategic policies.
Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Israel consider JCPOA as a factor which is increased in Iran's activism in the region.
Since US's withdrawal from the JCPOA and the formation of a new alliance and coalition in the region, we see increased pressure on Iran to change its regional policies.
Since US's withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran is perusing its deterrent power in the region and is emphasizing the strengthening of the axis of resistance.
Iran's regional policy has always been one of the serious challenges of US Middle-East policy after 1979. Therefore, in this study, the JCPOA has been analyzed according to this framework. The US goal in JCPOA was to content Iran and create a kind of balance in the region to ensure her interests and also her allies’ interests and when the US failed to achieve these goals, she withdrew from the agreement. In the United States, there were two main approaches to the nuclear negotiations and the agreement: the opponents of the nuclear talks believed that Iran's nuclear program was a significant tool for exerting pressure and sanctions and a tool to reduce Tehran's regional and international power and influence; the proponents of the agreement have been working to make the actual transcript of this statement available online. They emphasize on the strategic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the regional and international levels, and consider Iran's nuclear program from this perspective.
The research findings show, Iran's regional and strategic policies has played a challenging role in the relationship between Tehran and super and regional powers. It can be concluded that JCPOA has not only resolved the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear crisis and consolidated international peace and security, but also promoted the status of Islamic embarrassment at the international level and has strengthened and provided Iran with regional influence. As a result, Trump and some of his regional allies have questioned the advantages of JCPOA and they have tried to change Iran's defense and security policies and strategies by resorting to such tools as the formation of new alliances and coalitions in the region and reducing Iran's defensive power and weakening the resistance axis. We have witnessed a change in the US approach before and after withdrawing from JCPOA, the explicit opposition of Saudi Arabia and Israel to JCPOA, Turkey's interest-oriented view of JCPOA, and finally Russia's orientation towards JCPOA. This new approach is to put pressure on Iran to change its regional strategy. These are interpreted as systemic variables by internal variables that play the role of mediators.
10. Dehghani Firouzabadi, S. J (2008), Foreign Policy Liberation: Critical Theory and Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Foreign Policy, Volume 22 ,Number 2.[In Persian]
11. Donya-e-Eqtesad Newspaper (2017), what does resolution’s article 2231 say about Iran? No 4173.
12. Ellner, A (2011). Iran-Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security ?Perce- ptions, 3.
13. Elman, C (2007), Realism, in Martin Griffiths, ed. International Relations Theory for the Twenty First Century, London: Routledge.
14. Grumet, T. R (2015), New Middle East Cold War: Saudi Arabia and Iran's Rivalry, Electronic Theses and Dissertations, Paper 1028
Jenkins, Gareth, Turkey, the Middle East, and Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Regional Perspective, Senior Associate Fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Initiative.
15. Iser, O; Dilak, A (2012), Constraints on Turkey's new foreign policy on the complex security of the Caucasus, Iras Quarterly.
16. Kamali, H.R; Allaie, M (2015), Representation of Iran-GCC relations based on the matrix modeling of security arrangements, Tehran’s First Security Conference, Articles Collection, Tehran, stitute for International Studies and Research Contemporary Abrar Tehran.[In Persian]
17. Karami, J; Keramatinia, R (2016), Russian foreign policy and Iran's nuclear program from the sanctions to the Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), Journal of Central Asia and the Caucasus Studies, Volume 22, Issue 95.[In Persian]
18. Khalili, R (2016), The Impact of Social Gaps on National Security of Iran; Exploring an Analytical Framework, Strategic Studies Quarterly,Volume 18, Issue 70 - Serial Number 4.[In Persian].
19. Little, R (2010), The Balance of Power in International Relations: Metaphors, Myths and Models, translated By Gholamali Chagnizadeh, Contemporary Abrar Publishing.
20. Lobell, S. E; Pipsman, N.M.;Taliaferro, J.W (2009), Neoclassical Realism, The State, and Foreign Policy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
21. Masoud, A; Muhammad, Kh. Kh,(2015), Margalla Papers.
22. Milani, M (2016), Iran's Regional Policies One Year After the Nuclear Deal, University of South Florida Tampa, 2016 by the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University.
23. Mirnezami, M. S ( 2016), General Nuclear Agreement and the developments of a recent year, National Security Guard Strategic Monthly, No 52.[In Persian]
24. Misaei, Gh; others (2017), Media Diplomacy and Iran Islamic Republic Nuclear negotiations, The Journal of Cultural Studies Communica- tions,Volume 18, Issue 38, Serial Number 70.[In Persian].
25. Mohseni, P (2015), The Iran Project; Iran and the Arab World after the Nuclear Deal, Harvard Kennedy School.
26. Mossallanezhad, A (2019), US Comparative Policy toward Iran and the Middle East Security, Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume 14, Issue 52.[In Persian]
27. Mushirzadeh, H (2016), Evolution of International Relations Theories, Organi- zation for the Study and Compilation of Humanities Books of Universities (SAMT).[In Persian]
28. Nighibzadeh, A (2004), The history of diplomacy and international relations from the Westphalian Treaty to today, Tehran, Gomes Publishing.[In Persian]
29. Nouralivand, Y (2017), Saudi Arabia's Attempts to Rebuilding a Regional Balance with Iran, Strategic Studies Quarterly,Volume 20, Issue 75, Serial Number 1.[In Persian]
30. Rezaei, A.R; Torabi, Gh (2013), The Foreign Policy of Hassan Rouhani, Constructive Interaction within the Framework of Development Oriented Government, Quarterly journal of international political research,Volume 5, Issue 15.[In Persian]
31. Rose, G (1998), Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy, Word Politics, 51 (1).
32. Rouhi Dehboneh, M (2018), Geopolitical Analysis of Iranian-Turkish Comp- etitions Affected by the Middle East Developments since 2011, Geopolitics Quarterly,Volume 14, Issue 49.[In Persian]
33. Sadjadpour, S. M.K (2015), Strategic Values for Achieving Nuclear Agree- ments, National Security Guard Strategic Monthly, Volume 4, Issue 40.[In Persian]
34. Salimi, H; Ebrahimi, M (2016), Theoretical and Meta-Theoretical Bases and Critique of Neoclassical Realism, International Relations Research Quarterly, Volume 5, Issue 17.[In Persian]
35. Shapouri, M (2015), Western view at the nuclear Deal, National Security Guard Strategic Monthly, Volume 4, Issue 40.[In Persian]
36. Shweller, R. L(1996), Neorealism’s Status-Que Bias: What Security Dilemma?, Security Studies, 5(3), 90-121
37. Shweller, R.L (2002), Missed Opportunities and Unanswered Threats: Dome- stic Constraints on the Balance of Power, Paper Presented at the annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, Massachusetts.
38. Taliaferro, J.W (2000 a), Security Seeking Under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited, International Security,25 (3),Winter.
39. Taliaferro, J.W; Steven, L; Norrin, P (2009), Introduction: Neoclassical Real- ism, the State and Foreign Policy, in Lobell et al.
40. The Middle East After the Iran Nuclear Deal | Council on Foreign Relations. (n.d.). Retrieved December 7, 2017, from https://www.cfr.org/expert-roundup /middle-east-after-iran-nuclear-deal
41. Waltz, K. H. (1979), Theory of International Politics, New York: Random House.
42. Wohlforth, W.C (1996), Witness to the End of the Cold War, Maryland: John Hopkins University Press.
43. Yazdanpanah Dero, K; Zaeri, B; Rahimi, R (2018), Geopolitical Factors of U.S Tendency to Form an Arabian Military Coalition in Persian Gulf and its Consequences on Iran's Security, Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume 14, Issue 50.[In Persian]
44. Zibakalam, S; Zamani, M (2017), JCPOA impact on policy, regulation and security strategy in the Middle East, Political Science Quarterly,Volume 13, Issue 39.[In Persian]
45. Zolfaghari, V; Jafari, A.A (2016), Iran's Nuclear Riddle and Assessing the Politic- al logic of Actors, Foreign Relations Journal, Volume 8, Issue 2.[In Persian]