بررسی تاثیر برجام بر سیاست و راهبردهای منطقه ای ایران: تداوم یا تغییر

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه ازاد-واحد علوم و تحقیقات -دانشکده حقوق ،الهیات و علوم سیاسی

2 دانشگاه آزاد -واحد علوم و تحقیقات -دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی

3 استاد دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی- دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین موضوعاتی که پس از برجام در بین اندیشمندان روابط بین‌الملل و محافل سیاسی مطرح شد، این بوده که سیاست‌های امنیتی ایران در پسابرجام در منطقه به چه شکلی ادامه پیدا می‌کنند. سوال تحقیق بدین صورت ارائه  می گردد: برجام چه تأثیری برتداوم و استمرار سیاست‌ها و راهبردهای منطقه‌ای ایران دارد؟ فرضیه‌ای که در پاسخ به سوال مذکور مطرح شده این است که «بازیگران عرصه توافق جامع هسته‌ای(1+5)ضمن تثبیت و تداوم نظم هسته‌ای در منطقه ژئواستراتژیکی خاورمیانه با توسل و بهره‌گیری از ابزارهای همچون مهار و موازنه،اتحاد و ائتلاف‌های نوظهور منطقه‌ای، کاهش توان بازدارندگی دفاعی، و تضعیف محور مقاومت بدنبال تغییر در سیاست‌ها و راهبردهای منطقه ای ایران می باشد.» روش پژوهش بکار گرفته در اینجا با توجه به ماهیت تحقیق، «توصیفی- تحلیلی» است. برای تبین موضوع پژوهش از نظریه واقع‌گرایی نئوکلاسیک بهره گرفته‌ایم.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

JCPOA and its Impact on Iran’s Regional Policies and Strategies: Continuity or Change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Younes Salmani Jelodar 1
  • Keyhan Barzegar 1
  • Mehdi Zakerian 2
  • Hamid Ahmadi 3
1 Islamic Azad university science and reserarch branch faculty of law theology and politic science
2 Islamic azad university science and research branch faculty of law theology and politic science
3 Professor, Department of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract     
Introduction
This research aims at investigating Iran's security and defense policies after JCPOA. One of the most important issues that have been posed among international relations and political science experts is how Iran's security and defense policies will continue in post-JCPOA era. The research question dealt with in this research is as follows: What is the impact of JCPOA on Iran’s security and defense policies? The hypothesis is that “the comprehensive nuclear agreement inspired by the teachings and norms of the nonproliferation regime has not only solved Iran's nuclear crisis and strengthened international peace and security, but also contributed to enhancing Iran's international status and strengthening Iran's regional influence and role. Various analysts and politicians have analyzed the post-JCPOA issue from different perspectives. Considering JCPOA's constituents, some examined its form and content. On the one hand, there are proponents of the JCPOA agreement who believe that reducing tensions over nuclear issues through cooperation can produce a trusting experience and lead to more cooperation and confidence-building. Opponents of the nuclear deal, on the other hand, criticize it, arguing that it has not led to any significant change in Iran's regional policy, and that the deal has in fact strengthened Iran economically which results in Iran's more aggressive approach.
Methodology
Based on the nature of research “descriptive-analytic" method was chosen for the current research. The research is framed in neoclassical realism school. In neoclassical realism, the aim is to refine neo-realist theory by adding internal mediating variables among systemic motives and stimuli and foreign policy decisions. Accordingly, in foreign policy analysis, the internal characteristics of countries such as the ability of policymakers to extract resources to pursue and achieve foreign policy goals are examined.
 
Findings
The findings of this study are discussed under the following themes:

Iran's regional policies after JCPOA are the outcome of national and international systemic factors.
JCPOA has strengthened Iran's activism in pursuing its regional and strategic policies.
Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Israel consider JCPOA as a factor which is increased in Iran's activism in the region.
Since US's withdrawal from the JCPOA and the formation of a new alliance and coalition in the region, we see increased pressure on Iran to change its regional policies.
Since US's withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran is perusing its deterrent power in the region and is emphasizing the strengthening of the axis of resistance.

Analysis
Iran's regional policy has always been one of the serious challenges of US Middle-East policy after 1979. Therefore, in this study, the JCPOA has been analyzed according to this framework. The US goal in JCPOA was to content Iran and create a kind of balance in the region to ensure her interests and also her allies’ interests and when the US failed to achieve these goals, she withdrew from the agreement. In the United States, there were two main approaches to the nuclear negotiations and the agreement: the opponents of the nuclear talks believed that Iran's nuclear program was a significant tool for exerting pressure and sanctions and a tool to reduce Tehran's regional and international power and influence; the proponents of the agreement have been working to make the actual transcript of this statement available online. They emphasize on the strategic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the regional and international levels, and consider Iran's nuclear program from this perspective.
 
Conclusion
   The research findings show, Iran's regional and strategic policies has played a challenging role in the relationship between Tehran and super and regional powers. It can be concluded that JCPOA has not only resolved the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear crisis and consolidated international peace and security, but also promoted the status of Islamic embarrassment at the international level and has strengthened and provided Iran with regional influence. As a result, Trump and some of his regional allies have questioned the advantages of JCPOA and they have tried to change Iran's defense and security policies and strategies by resorting to such tools as the formation of new alliances and coalitions in the region and reducing Iran's defensive power and weakening the resistance axis. We have witnessed a change in the US approach before and after withdrawing from JCPOA, the explicit opposition of Saudi Arabia and Israel to JCPOA, Turkey's interest-oriented view of JCPOA, and finally Russia's orientation towards JCPOA. This new approach is to put pressure on Iran to change its regional strategy. These are interpreted as systemic variables by internal variables that play the role of mediators.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Iran
  • JCPOA
  • Defense Policy
  • Containment
  • Balance
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