دموکراتیزاسیون در ایران: تحلیل مشارکت و رقابت انتخابات (1906 – 2013)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار گروه جامعه شناسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

  این مقاله بر دموکراتیزاسیون  از 190 تا 1913 تاکید می کند.  در این مقاله نشان داده شده است که جامعه ایرانی چهار موج دموکراتیزاسیون را تجربه کرده است. نویسنده  استدلال کرده است که اگرچه ایران فرایندهای طولانی مدت تغییر دموکراتیک را تجربه است، با این حال هنوز نتوانسته است یک نظام سیاسی دموکراتیک را مستقر کند. در همین حال، این فرایندهای طولانی مدت، با تحقق برخی از معیارهای  حداقلی فرآیندگذار، مانند برگزاری انتخابات دوره ای، به ایجاد تغییرات نهادی طولانی مدت منجر شده است. در این مقاله از داده های  گردآوری شده در باب 33  مورد انتخابات پارلمانی و مورد 11 مورد انتخابات ریاست جمهوری استفاده  شده است. فرضیه مقاله با استفاده از تکنیک تحلیل رگرسیون چندگانه مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. یافته های تجربی دلالت برآن دارد که ترکیب خطی توسعه اقتصادی- اجتماعی و عاملیت نخبگان قدرت، به میزان  0.42 درصد از واریانس مشارکت انتخابات و 0.62 درصد از واریانس رقابت انتخاباتی را  تبیین می‌کند. شواهد نشان می دهد که هرگاه نخبگان  قدرت استراتژی سرکوب نیروهای مخالف انتخاب کنند، شاخص گذار دموکراتیک به طور متوسط 13.93 واحد کاهش می یابد. 
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کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Democratization in Iran: Analyzing Electoral Competition and Participation (1906 – 2013)

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Saei
Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study focuses on the democratization in Iran from 1909 to 2013. I show that Iranian society experienced four waves of democratization. I argue that although Iran has experienced long-run processes of democratic change, the country has not yet been able to establish a democratic system. Meanwhile, these long-run processes of democratic change have led to long-lasting institutional change, realizing some of the minimum criteria of the transition process, including periodic elections. I set out a theory by which democratization increases parallel to the degree of socio-economic development. Importantly, I argue that successful democratization hinges on political elites strategically choosing to refrain from repression. The strategic choices made by the élites determine the main process of the transition stage. I use a novel dataset collected from 33 parliamentary and 11 presidential elections. Using multiple linear regression model, I find that socio-economic development and elite agency explain 0.42 percent of the variation in electoral participation and 0.62 percent of the variation in electoral competition. When elites decide to repress oppositional forces, the democratic transition index decreases by an average of 13.93 units.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Democratization
  • Democratic Transition
  • Electoral Participation andCompetition
  • Modernization
  • Socio- Economic Development
  • Political Elite Strategy
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Http://www.moi.ir