چشم‌انداز خروج آمریکا از غرب آسیا در پرتو سیاست راهبردی منطقه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته دکتری رشته مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی(گرایش آینده پژوهی)، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران.

2 استاد گروه علوم سیاسی و مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی و مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

چکیده

آمریکا به عنوان مهم‌ترین کنشگر فرامنطقه‌ای نفوذ زیادی در غرب آسیا پیدا کرده و ائتلاف‌های نظامی و امنیتی متعددی با دولت‌های درون‌منطقه‌ای منعقد ساخته است. روندهای نوظهوری نظیر افزایش روز افزون قدرت چین و شکوفایی نفت شیل در آمریکا منتج به تولید فرض کاهش اهمیت غرب آسیا برای این کشور و متعاقباً تشدید روند خروج شده است. مسئله اصلی پژوهش واکاوی پنداره خروج آمریکا از غرب آسیا در سپهر اهداف و راهبردهای منطقه‌ای است. هدف محوری پاسخگویی به این سوال است که آیا آمریکا در پرتو سیاست راهبردی منطقه‌ای، قصد خروج  از غرب آسیا را دارد؟ فرضیه پژوهش این است که اهداف آمریکا در غرب آسیا از قاعده پابرجایی پیروی کرده و تغییر محسوسی نیافته است، اما راهبرد جنگ پیاده نظام و دخالت مستقیم به دلیل فرسایشی بودن، هزینه زیاد و فرجام نامشخص، به سمت راهبرد هوابرد و عملیات نقطه‌ای، مداخله غیرمستقیم و درگیر ساختن بازیگرن منطقه‌ای سوق پیدا کرده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که اهداف آمریکا از جمله امنیت اسرائیل، کنترل قیمت و کریدورهای انرژی، سد نفوذ چین و روسیه، تجارت جنگ و تسلیحات و سد نفوذ ایران و جستارگشایی از راهبردهایی نظیر موازنه‌سازی فراکرانه‌ای، شبکه‌سازی پایگاهی، طعمه‌گذاری، آتش‌بیاری معرکه، عملیات پهپادی، تشکیل ناتوی عربی و تجزیه و تسخیر نه تنها نشانگر قصد خروج نیست، بلکه حاکی از تلاش جهت حضور بلندمدت است. روش پژوهش کیفی بوده و از رویکرد تحلیل اسنادی بهره برده شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prospect of the U.S Withdrawal from West Asia in the Light of Regional Strategic Policy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Javad Fathi 1
  • Mohammad Rahim Eivavi 2
  • Shohreh Pirani 3
1 PhD Political Studies of the Islamic Revolution, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Political Science and Political Studies of the Islamic Revolution, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Political Science and Political Studies of the Islamic Revolution, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract   
 Introduction
The United States, as the most important trans-regional active state in West Asia, has gradually gained a great deal of influence in this area in order to achieve its goals, and has formed numerous military and security alliances with regional governments. However, emerging trends such as China's economic revolution and the shale oil boom in the United States, coupled with the deliberate decision of the country's political elite to temporarily withdraw from some parts of West Asia have led to the assumption of diminishing importance of the region and subsequent the U.S withdrawal. And the focus is on areas adjacent to China. The main issue of the present study is to analyze the concept of the U.S withdrawal from West Asia in the light of regional goals and strategies. The main question of the research is “whether the U.S intends to leave West Asia in the light of its regional strategic policy?”.
Methodology
The research method is descriptive-analytic and it is a fundamental in terms of its nature. The method of data gathering is based upon library studies and the use of books, articles and online resources.
Results and Discussion
West Asia is of great importance to the U.S in terms of its geostrategic position, its vast fossil fuel resources, and its large consumer market. The course of the U.S foreign policy in West Asia shows an upward and intrusive trend. The U.S has set specific goals for itself in West Asia, the most important of which are Iran's influence, Israel's security, ensuring the free flow of oil, the trade in arms and arms sales, and China and Russia. Achieving such goals naturally requires the use of pivotal strategies that provide the basis for achieving the desired and optimal results. Strategies such as networking, alliances and coalition buildings with Arab allies, supra-regional balancing, the formation of the Arab NATO, Open Doors strategy in war, baiting, adding fuel to the fire, disintegration and conquest are the most prominent issues for the political and security elites of this country. The basis of all these strategies is several issues: one is that costly wars that damage the American economy and the image, on the other hand, the presence of this country will be smarter and the use of mobile naval forces as well as the use of the drone industry has become more important compared to deployed infantry. Threats to the economy including potential instability and challenges to energy exports as well as threats to the regime's military bases have not been exacerbated, but a more qualitative and cost-effective presence has emerged in recent years. Qualitative presence of this country is done in the form of utilization of the drone industry and rapid reaction forces, and cost-effective presence is also applied in the form of partial security and transfer of responsibility to allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The United States seeks to place the burden of security costs on its traditional allies and to intervene directly only when its vital interests are at stake.
Conclusions
The perception of the U.S withdrawal from the Middle East is an exaggerated fact, but the U.S influence in the region is certainly declining. Just as Eastern Europe is important for Russian Federation, East Asia is politically, security-wise, and economically important for China, West Asia is a strategic region for the U.S. However, there is a dichotomy over the U.S foreign policy in West Asia over whether to stay in or leave the region. Some argue that threats to the U.S interests are stronger today than ever, and this requires an increased the U.S presence, while others argue that over-investment by the U.S in the region has had devastating consequences, so it is first necessary to reduce the level of presence, and given the country's independence from regional energy, it should withdraw in the long run and focus more on controlling China. It must be said, however, that the U.S Middle East policy will not undergo a complete transformation in the future, and that the issue of the U.S withdrawal from West Asia will be ruled out. The strategic importance of West Asia and the field evidence do not support this claim; Statements such as the dangerous behavior of rivals and enemies, the security of Israel, the defense of Arab allies, the serious challenge of great powers such as China and Russia, energy security and the control of energy export corridors and maritime trade have caused the claim of the U.S withdrawal from West Asia not be documented with field facts in the current situation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • the U.S
  • West Asia
  • Buck-Passing
  • Containment
  • Offensive Realism
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