چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی مذاکرات صلح خاورمیانه با تمرکز بر معامله قرن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد معارف اسلامی و علوم سیاسی، دانشکده معارف اسلامی و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده معارف اسلامی و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده معارف اسلامی و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

طرح‌های صلح پیشین جهت حل مسئله فلسطین به علت عدم توجه مؤثر به چالش‌های سرزمینی از یک‌سو و انگاره‌های هویتی و نمادین دخیل در این مناقشه از سوی دیگر قادر به حل پایدار این منازعه نبوده‌اند و طرح معامله قرن هم از این قاعده مستثنی نیست. در این راستا پرسش اصلی مقاله حاضر این است که مهم‌ترین چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی مذاکرات صلح خاورمیانه با تمرکز بر معامله قرن کدامند؟ یافته‌های این پژوهش که با رویکرد توصیفی-تحلیلی، روش اسنادی و گردآوری داده‌های کتابخانه‌ای به دست آمده، نشان می‌دهد که چالش‌های عمیق سخت و نرم ژئوپلیتیکی دخیل در مسئله فلسطین نظیر فقدان دولت مستقل فلسطینی و فقدان عمق استراتژیک آن، عدم پیوستگی سرزمینی، عدم ارائه راه‌حل پایدار برای آوارگان داخلی و خارجی فلسطینی، چالش‌های هیدروپلیتیک با همسایگان و بی‌توجهی به انگاره‌های نمادین دینی، هویتی و تمایلات ناسیونالیستی، مهم‌ترین چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی مذاکرات صلح خاورمیانه هستند که در معامله قرن نیز مانند طرح‌های صلح پیشین نادیده ‌انگاشته شده‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Geopolitical Challenges of Middle East Peace Talks with Emphasis on "Deal of Century"

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Amin Hazrati Razlighi 1
  • Mahdi Javdani Moqaddam 2
  • Abuzar Gohari Moqaddam 3
1 M.A Student of Islamic Studies and Political Sciences, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Political Science, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor in International Relations, Faculty of Islamic studies and Political Science, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor in International Relations, Faculty of Islamic Studies And Political Science, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract     
Introduction
Territorial disputes including the Palestine issue are rooted in the spread of modern nationalism after the French Revolution based on the doctrine of the right to self-determination, in which each nation has the right and authority to form a nation-state within its territorial boundaries, based on the linguistic, historical, cultural and geographical evidences. Most of the contemporary territorial conflicts including the Palestine issue are not one-dimensional and in most cases have two tangible and symbolic geopolitical dimensions. The tangible aspect refers to the disputed objective element like existing land and its symbolic aspect indicates the identity disputes, the sense of belonging religious or racial groups to a land or their belief in the ownership of land by historical claims. Therefore, Palestinian peace proposals need to concentrate on hard or tangible and soft or symbolic geopolitical elements and challenges involved in the conflict. The last peace plans have failed to address these geopolitical features suitably and efficiently which have led to their failure. "Deal of century" as the last peace proposal which was made by U.S former administration have failed to address tangible and symbolic geopolitical challenges of Palestinian issue and is unable to make balanced and lasting recommendations on Palestinian geopolitical challenges.
 
Methodology
The current research is qualitative, its approach is descriptive-analytic and it has used documentary research method in order to collect library data. In this regard, the authors have tried to use Persian, Arabic and Latin articles and books. In addition, we have utilized valid and related documents especially "Deal of century" Document which has been published by the U.S Department of State. After collecting data and categorizing them, the authors have attempted to analyze data based on the theory-based analysis method and used modern or critical geopolitical approach to explain the geopolitical challenges of the Palestinian peace plans with emphasis on "Deal of Century".
 
Results and Discussion
The findings of the research have been discussed in the three section. In the first section, we concentrate on the geopolitical importance of Palestine in both tangible and symbolic aspects. In the second part, the authors will explain geopolitical challenges of the previous peace proposals like Camp David Accords within the two main tangible and symbolic categories. In the last section, the article attempts to bring out the most significant geopolitical challenges of "Deal of century" which may lead to its failure.
 
Conclusions
Ignoring geopolitical components and challenges involved in the Palestinian disputes can be considered as the main and prominent feature of "Deal of century". This proposal pursues three main goals: Changing peace paradigm in favor of Israel, Marginalizing Palestinian forces in the conflict and ignoring the rights of the Palestinians and Changing US macro approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
In short, the most significant geopolitical challenges of "Deal of century" are: the failure of Palestinians to form a unified state with active sovereignty, the territorial division of the Palestinian state (even if it will be established), a completely unilateralist approach to supporting Israel, the ignorance of symbolic importance of Jerusalem for Muslims, the full granting of Jerusalem sovereignty to the Zionist regime, denial of Palestinian's right to return to their homeland as an authorized right of Security Council resolutions, paving the way for continuation of the Zionist regime's long-term settlement policy, deepening and intensifying border divisions, accelerating water disputes and hydro political conflicts in East Shamat and with neighbors, especially Syria and Jordan and marginalizing the Palestinian resistance. Therefore, this proposal is unable to address these tangible and symbolic challenges of the Palestinian issue efficiently and has failed to make progress in the way of reaching a lasting and beneficial solution for the conflict. Unity or divergence of Islamic states over the Palestinian issue and their support for the formation of an independent and unified Palestinian state, compromise or resistance approach of neighboring states, especially Egypt, Syria and Jordan, US support for Israel and united position of the Palestinian forces especially Fatah and Hamas can be named as the main and most significant geopolitical factors influencing the success or failure of Palestinian peace proposals including "Deal of century".

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Geopolitics
  • Middle East Peace Talks
  • Deal of Century
  • Palestine
  • Israel
  1. Abdolmonem, A (2018). The winners and losers of Deal of Century, Egyptian Institute for Studies, Retrieved from https://eipss-eg.org/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8. [In Arabic]
  2. Abu Amer, M (2020). Deal of Century: Scenarios in light of Risks and Challenges, Arab Policy Forum, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/3pXfmHC. [In Arabic]
  3. AbuAyyash, A (1981). Israeli Planning Policy in the Occupied Territories, Journal of Palestine Studies, Vol. 11, No.1, 111-123.
  4. Amid, H (2010). Amid Dictionary, Tehran, Rahe-Roshd Publication. [In Persian]
  5. Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS), (2020). “Deal of the Century”: What Is It and Why Now?, February 4, 2020, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/33CM7lX
  6. Asgarkhani, A.M & Mansoori moghaddam, J (2010). Conflict and Cooperation in IR: Alexander Wendt's Constructivist Theory. Political Quarterly, 40(3),189-208. [In Persian]
  7. Asseburg, M (2019). The Deal of the Century for Israel-Palestine, (Translated by D. Meredith, Trans), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, doi: 10.18449/2019C20.
  8. Bokhari, K (2016). The Palestinian National Project, Geopolitical Futures (GPF), December 29, 2016, Retrieved from https://geopoliticalfutures.com/ the-palestinian-national- project/. Accessed 20 April 2020.
  9. Brenner, I (2009). The Palestinian/Israeli Conflict: A Geopolitical Identity Disorder, The American Journal of Psychoanalysis, 69, 62-71.
  10. Cohen, S.B (2015). Geopolitics: The Geography of International Relations, London, Rowman & Littlefield.
  11. Condulescu, T (2009). Geopolitics And Foreign Policy; The Case Of Israel, ( Master's thesis ) Central European University, Budapest, Hungary.
  12. Daneshnia, F (2015). Alexander Went's Constructivism, Contemporary Political Studies, 6(16), 63-84. [In Persian]
  13. Deheshyar, H; Aminabadi, S.M (2022). The Role of Geopolitics in Escalating International Crises(A Case Study : Syrian Crisis), Geopolitics Quaretrly, Volume: 18, Issue 65, 187-215. [In Persian]
  14. Elnaser, H (2020). ‘The deal of the century’ and its hidden secrets, The Jordan Times, February 15, 2020, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/3q2I2Pq
  15. Friedman, G (2008). The Geopolitics Of Israel: Biblical and Modern, The Market Oracle, Retrieved from http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4728 .html. Accessed 18 April 2020.
  16. Friedman, D (2009). The Geopolitics Of the Palestinians, Stratfor, Retrieved from 7075_Geopolitics_of_Palestinians.pdf.
  17. Friedman, G (2016). A Meaningless UN Security Council Resolution, Geopo- litical Futures, December 27, 2016, Retrieved from https:// geopolitical- futur com/a-meaningless-un-security-council-resolution/. Accessed 20 April 2020.
  18. Ghamhavi, L (2019). An Study on Deal of Century, Centre for Arab Unity Studies, Retrieved from https://caus.org.lb/ar/%D9%82. [ In Arabic]
  19. Gonzalez, Y.S (2019). Trump's “Deal of the Century” and the Latin American response, AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy and International Relations, Vol. 8, n.16, 215-241.
  20. Gorji, H.F, Eslami, M, Jamshidi, M.H (2018). Geopolitical Security Environment of Israel and its Identical Policy, Geopolitics Quaretrly, Volume: 14, No 4, 130-148. [In Persian]
  21. Israel Science and Technology Directory, Golan Heights Streams and Water Resources, Retrieved from https://www.science.co.il/israel/maps/ .
  22. Karmi, G (2001). Jerusalem: Excursion Up a Blind Alley?, Palestine-Israel Journal of Politics, Economics & Culture, Vol. 8 No. 1.
  23. Kelman, H.C (2007). The Israeli-Palestinian peace process and its vicissitudes: Insights from attitude theory, American Psychologist, 63 ( 4 ), 287-303.
  24. Klein, M, Dakkak, I., Jubeh, N., Berkovitz, S.& Leon, D ( 2001 ). Jerusalem: Symbols, Control, Sovereignty, Palestine-Israel Journal, 8: 1.
  25. Kurtzer, D.C (2020). The Ingredients of Palestinian-Israeli PeacemakingAuthor, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, Vol.43, No.3, 5-16.
  26. Macdonald, H (2002). Geopolitics and Middle East Conflict, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Oslo (ISSN 0333-3981).
  27. Morag, N (2001). Water, Geopolitics And State Building: The Case of Israel, Middle Eastern Studies, 37: 3, 179-198.
  28. Negotiations Affairs Department (2020). Deal of Century: Trump-Netanyahu Deal to liquidate Israeli-Palestinian conflict And Rights of Palestinian People, (Concept Paper) Palestine, The PLO Negotiations Affairs Department, Retrieved from https://www.nad.ps/ar/media-room/media- briefs/%D9% 88% D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A9. [In Arabic]
  29. Newman, D (1998). Citizenship, Identity and Location: The Changing Discourse of Israeli Geopolitics, In K. Dodds & D. Atkinson (eds), Geopolitical Traditions: Critical Histories of a Century of Geopolitical Thought ( pp. 302-331). London: Routledge.
  30. Newman, D (2002). The geopolitics of peacemaking in Israel-Palestine, Political Geography, 21, 629-646.
  31. Newman, D (2010). Contemporary Geopolitics of Israel-Palestine: Conflict Resolution and the Construction of Knowledge, Eurasian Geography and Economic, 51: 6, 687-693.
  32. Oluwashakin, A (2013). Geopolitical Conflicts: The Caw of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (1947-2012), IOSR Journal of Humanities And Social Science, 16, 2, 109-117.
  33. Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) (2019). About 13 million Palestinians in the Historical Palestine and Diaspora, November 7, 2019, Retrieved from http://www.pcbs.gov.ps/post.aspx?lang=en&ItemID=3503#
  34. Patel, Y(2020). Understanding the Trump ‘Deal of the Century’: what it does, and doesn’t say, Mondoweiss, February 3, 2020, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/3mbUviJ /.
  35. Persson, A (2018). What will Trump's 'ultimate deal' mean for Palestinians?,Al Jazeera Net, 28 March, 2018, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/3p5exgO.
  36. Rajabnejad, N., Akhbari, M., Bijani, A(2020). Security Explanation of Settlements in the West Bank with the Spatial Trap Approach (2000-2020), Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol: 17, No. 3, 32-60.[ In Persian]
  37. Sharkansky, I (2018). Problems in the north and south. The Jerusalem Post, July 12, 2018, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/3dXQdaj.
  38. Stratfor, The Geopolitics of Israel and the Palestinians: The Intelligence Behind the Headlines, ( 2009 ). Austin: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
  39. Tandon, T (2021). What is Greater Israel? Why is the idea not acceptable to the Palestinians and Islamists, JagranJosh, May 21, 2021, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/3mc7KQw.
  40. The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) (June, 2020). Best Line of Defense: The Case for Israeli Sovereignty in the Jordan Valley, 1-28, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/3skaMWR
  41. Valigholizadeh, A (2019). Explaining the Political-Geopolitical Role of Water in the Existence of Israel, Geopolitics Quaretrly, Volume: 15, No 1, 85-117. [ In Persian]
  42. Wendt, A (1999). Social Theory of International Politics, New York, Cambridge University Press.
  43. Zakheim, D.S (2012). The Geopolitics of Scripture, The American History, Vol 7, No 6, Retrieved from https://bit.ly/3e2bXl7.
  44. Ziada, D (2020). Trump's 'Deal of the Century' and Why it Still Matters, The Washington Institute, March 13, 2020, Retrieved from https:// ly/ 3pYEgXk. [In Arabic]