تحلیل تأثیرگذاری عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی بر سیاست امنیت ملی ج.ا.ایران در پرونده هسته‌ای

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه اصفهان

2 استادیار علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه اصفهان

3 دانشیار علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

این پژوهش در پی تبیین میزان و نوع تأثیرگذاری عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی ایران بر نگاه و رویکرد اتخاذی از سوی طرفین پرونده هسته‌ای ایران است. در همین راستا، تلاش گردیده، با رویکردی تلفیقی، بین «واقعیت‌های ژئوپلیتیک» کشور و نگاه و درک طرفین پرونده هسته‌ای، ارتباط برقرار شود. یافته‌های پژوهش (که فرضیات آن به‌صورت میدانی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است)، نشان می‌دهد از منظر میزان تأثیرگذاری، عوامل ژئوکالچری بیشترین تأثیرگذاری را بر نگاه بازیگران مؤثر در پرونده هسته‌ای داشته‌اند و عوامل ژئواستراتژیکی، ژئواکونومیکی و هیدروپلیتیکی به ترتیب در رده‌های بعدی اثرگذاری قرار دارند. در بررسی نوع تأثیرگذاری بر «نگاه و رویکرد خودی» نیز، عوامل ژئوکالچری بالاترین اثرگذاری مثبت و عوامل ژئواکونومیکی نیز، بالاترین میزان اثرگذاری منفی را داشته‌اند. همچنین، در ارزیابی میزان تأثیرگذاری عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی ایران، بر «نگاه و رویکرد طرف مقابل (1+5)»، عوامل ژئوکالچری بالاترین اثرگذاری منفی وضعیت هیدروپلیتیک ایران کمترین اثرگذاری منفی را داشته است.


کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Factors of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s National Security Policy on Nuclear Issue

نویسندگان [English]

  • H Mahdian 1
  • A Alihoseni 2
  • A.R Aghahoseini 3
1 PhD Student of Political Sciences, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Political Sciences, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Political Sciences, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
From 2002, Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear program due to nuclear development, including uranium enrichment and its internationalization and increasing concerns and threats has been a top issue in Iran’s foreign policy and national security. This topic, in the governments of the eighth, ninth and tenth and eleventh, in accordance with domestic conditions and developments in the international environment has been associated with some ups and downs. In the meantime, one of the factors that affect nuclear program is the Iran's geopolitical characteristics. This study, by taking a different approach and within the framework of the "identity-based" theory (constructivism) reviews and analyzes the Iran's geopolitical components affecting the view of the Islamic Republic of Iran to herself and also view of the other side (the 3 + 3) related to Iran's nuclear program.
 
Research Methodology
This paper with regard to pivotal concept of "identity" of the theory of "constructivism" tries to understand the impact of Iran's geopolitical characteristics on the perspective and approach taken by both sides on the nuclear issue. Therefore, by analyzing geopolitical characteristics which help understand the Islamic Republic of Iran and the other sides discuss the nuclear issue. The data collection method is based on library and questionnaire findings.
 
Results and Discussion 
At first, the impact of Iran’s geopolitical factors and features in the fields of: 1. Geo-strategic 2. Geo-culture, 3. Geo-economics and 4. Hydro-politics, has been evaluated and analyzed on formation of Iranians approach to themselves and consequently the Islamic Republic of Iran’s national security policy of the on the nuclear issue. To consider the impact of geopolitical factors on formation of the Iran’s approach to the case of nuclear, geo-cultural factors (cultural and religious factors) are the most effective with 29/8 percent and geo-strategic with 28.2 percent, geo-economic with 25.7 percent and hydro-political with 16.3 percent, are ranked in the next ranks. In considering influence of geopolitical factors of on understanding and national security policy in the nuclear case, Geo-cultural factors (religious and cultural Factors) with 28.5 percent have allocated the highest positive impact (in terms of the persuasiveness), and geo-strategic factors with 25.1 percent, hydro-political with 23.9 percent and geo-economic with 22.5 percent have a positive impact on national security policy on the nuclear issue.
In the field of negative influence of geopolitical factors on the National Security policy, Hydro-Politic al factors with 19.3 percent has the lowest negative impact. But Iran's geo-economic factors with 37 percent, had the highest rate of negative impact, and geostrategic factors with 23.2 and geo-cultural factors and with 20.5 percent have been located in subsequent ranks the negative effects.
In evaluating the impact of Islamic Republic of Iran’s geopolitical factors on negative perceptions and confrontational approach of the other side (members of 3 + 3, especially the US and the Western countries) over Iran's nuclear program, geo-culture factors with 30.1 percent allocated first rank the, and geostrategic factors with 27.9 percent, geo-economics factors with 25.8 percent and hydro-politic factors with 16.2 percent, are in the subsequent ranks in the negative impact on the other side view.
 
Conclusion
The results indicated that in terms of the impact, geo-cultural factors have the most influence on the approach of the players in the nuclear case. The geostrategic, economic and hydro-political factors are in the next ranks, respectively. Also, in the study of the type of influence and insider view and approach, geo-cultural factors have the highest positive impact and geo-economic factors have the most affection negatively. In assessing the impact of geopolitical factors, on the USA and European’s view and approach, geo-cultural factors have the highest negative impact and the Iran’s hydro-politics conditions have the lowest negative impact.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Iran's Geopolitical Factors
  • National Security Policy
  • Iran's Nuclear Program