بررسی و تحلیل ره‌نامه جنگ پیشگیرانه آمریکا در آسیای جنوب غربی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملّی

چکیده

ره‌نامه(دکترین) قواعد بنیادی، چارچوب نظام‌مند و اصول ریشه‌ای است که در هر شاخه‌ای از علوم راهبردی با انباشت دانش، تجربه، مطالعه، تحلیل و آزمایش گردآوری می‌شود و با به‌کارگیری توانمندی‌ها نحوه دستیابی به اهداف را نظام‌مند می‌نماید. انتظار می‌رود که ره‌نامه اصول، نظریه، خط‌مشی و چگونگی عمل را بیان نماید. راهبردپردازان دولت آمریکا پس از حوادث 11 سپتامبر 2001 طیف جدیدی از تهدیدات امنیت ملی آمریکا را ترسیم نمودند. در این مسیر آمریکا تلاش نمود تا از این حادثه مشکوک برای تحمیل نظام تک‌قطبی بر نظام بین‌المللی حداکثر بهره را برده و بدین جهت ره‌نامه جنگ پیشگیرانه را در دستور کار خود قرار داد. شناخت رویکرد تهاجمی سال‌های اخیر آمریکا در دهه‌ ابتدایی قرن بیست و یکم در آسیای جنوب غربی در قالب ره‌نامه جنگ پیشگیرانه، موضوع و سؤال مهمی است که می‌تواند تهدیدات مهمی در ابعاد دفاعی برای کشور و کاربرد مؤثر و مهمی در راستای برقراری دفاع همه‌جانبه و امنیت ملی ج.ا.ایران داشته باشد، از این‌رو این امر نیاز به بررسی و مطالعه دقیق دارد.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the U.S Doctrine of Preventive War in Southwest Asia

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammad Hossein Afshordi
Associate Professor of Political Geography, University of National Defense, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Strategists of the U.S government have engaged in a new range of threats to the national security after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The United States has attempted to take maximum advantage of these attacks to impose a mono-polar system on the international system. Thus, it puts the doctrine of preventive war and preemptive operations. In support of this doctrine, it is claimed that war against America will occur in the future. Although it may not be immediate, but it is inevitable and reactions must be made beforehand, because delayed reactions will contribute to more costs and risks. The Americans mention issues such as terrorism, extremism, Islamic fundamentalism and weapons of mass destruction as threats that could affect the national strategy of all countries.
The application of the doctrine of preventive war and preemptive operations in Afghanistan and Iraq by the U.S shows the importance of a careful investigation of the dimensions and the results of this doctrine. So, this article investigates “the nature and scope (requirements and contexts) of preventive war of the United States in Southwest Asia".
 
Methodology
The research is descriptive- analytic, and data gathering procedure is based on library and filed-finding methods. The statistical sample of this research is 170 experts. To calculate the sample size, "Cochran" was used, and of 63 persons was selected. Quantitative variables were measured through inferential statistics (parametric and nonparametric), and measures of central tendency and dispersion were used. Content analysis was used in order to investigate the qualitative variables.
 
Discussion and Findings
Following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, the United States changed its national security policy. President Bush and officials in his administration announced that under special conditions in future, the U.S would attack before it is invaded, because prevention and defense will no longer protect America against attacks. The 2002 National Security Strategy codified this doctrine and specified that preemptive war will be an important tool of US foreign policy against terrorists and rogue states that develop NBC weapons.
Fukuyama believes that Islamic fundamentalists and their access to weapons of mass destruction technology are the most significant danger for the United States. According to this strategy, the preventive war is the same as a preemptive war and America is allowed for a military intervention in order to halt terrorism. The atmosphere that was created after the September 11, attacks led to the foreign policy of coercion and threat in the political sphere of the United States of America. Finally, the U.S attacked Afghanistan in 2001.
During a relatively long period of political confrontation between the U.S. and his Western supporters and the Ba'ath regime in Iraq, the West intensified measures against Iraq during a period of approximately six months before the invasion of the U.S to Iraq. This can be named the transition period of America’s cold war against Iraq to hot war. The incidents which happened during this period are of great importance and can be regarded as the evidences of the United States’ invasion to Iraq. The most important of these events include the issuance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441 on Iraq, highlight of the threat of Iraq in America's national security documents in 2002, transfer huge armed forces to the northern Persian Gulf, organization of the Iraqi opposition groups, regular meetings of the Security Council.
 
Conclusion
The researcher believes that in order to understand the nature of preventive action, attention has to be paid to the nature and context and to the discourse of literature in academic societies of the West. Accordingly, the nature and context of preventive war can be expressed as follows:
Military actions conducted under the title of preventive war have a combined nature that uses political, economic, social, cultural and military tools to reprocess the formation of regional powers in such a way that they meet the common interests of the allied forces especially the United States. The accompaniment of other global powers like Russia and China, which are in competition with each other, for the purpose of ensuring their natural interests, is predictable. It is also note-worthy that considering the justifications of this doctrine (terrorism, extremism, Islamic fundamentalism and WMDs), the aim of the invasion could be the state or non-state actors.
Preemptive strike has dimensions that are mentionable in the form of already-mentioned contexts, conditions and requirements. The mentioned dimensions can provide the defense strategists of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the indicators required for the supervision of the evolutions of the national, regional and international environment to use in national defense planning with a comprehensive approach in the form of a general model.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Geopolitics
  • Preventive War
  • Intenational System
  • Unired States
  • Southwest Asia