پیامدهای بی‌ثباتی امنیتی بر موازنة قدرت در خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

-دانشیار علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

تحولات اخیر در خاورمیانه را می‌توان به‌عنوان محور اصلی تغییر در موازنة قدرت منطقه‌ای دانست. هرگونه جابجایی در ساختار قدرت سیاسی کشورهای منطقه‌، دارای پیامدهای راهبردی برای کشورهای مختلف خواهد بود. به‌عبارتی دیگر، جابجایی قدرت و رهبران سیاسی در خاورمیانه نه تنها منجر به ایجاد خلاء قدرت در محیط منطقه‌ای می‌شود بلکه می‌توان آن را زمینه‌ساز دگرگونی‌های بنیادی‌تری در حوزة امنیت منطقه‌ای دانست. بنابراین تحولات مربوط به بهار خاورمیانه بر معادلة قدرت و موازنة منطقه‌ای خاورمیانه و خلیج فارس تأثیرگذار خواهد بود. در این فرایند کشورهایی همانند عربستان و ترکیه در صدد برآمدند تا بر موازنة منطقه‌ای تأثیر به‌جا گذارند. آنان تلاش دارند تا نقش ایران در برقراری امنیت  منطقه‌ای در خاورمیانه را کاهش دهند. به‌طور کلی کشورهای عربستان، ترکیه و اسرائیل را می‌توان به‌عنوان اصلی‌ترین رقبای ژئوپلیتیکی ایران در خاورمیانه دانست. به همین دلیل است که آنان از یک‌سو در صدد تغییر در موازنة قدرت منطقه‌ای علیه جمهوری اسلامی ایران هستند، از سوی دیگر، تلاش می‌کنند تا موج‌های جدید نوگرایی را در حوزة شکل‌بندی‌های قدرت منطقه‌ای تحت تأثیر قرار دهند. این مقاله به روش توصیفی و تحلیلی و تکیه بر منابع کتابخانه و منابع الکترونیکی در پی تبیین پیامدهای بی‌ثباتی امنیتی بر موازنة قدرت  درخاورمیانه بر اساس تغییر در مدل موازنة قدرت منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی می‌باشد. یافته‌های مقاله حکایت از این دارد، اگرچه جلوه‌های هستی‌شناسانة تحولات خاورمیانه براساس بیداری اسلامی مورد توجه قرار می‌گیرد، اما کشورهایی که نقش رقیب منطقه‌ای ایران را ایفا می‌نمایند، درصدد تغییر در موازنة قدرت منطقه‌ای هستند. این امر در میان مدت ژئوپلیتیک خلیج فارس و خاورمیانه را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. این تحولات توانسته است فرصت‌های نوین و همچنین چالش‌های جدید برای امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران به‌وجود آورد.  

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effects of the Security Instability on the Balance of Power in the Middle East

نویسنده [English]

  • Abbas Mossalanejad
- Associate Professor of Political Sciences, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
The recent developments in the Middle East can be regarded as the focal point of the change in the balance of the regional power. Any shift in the political power's structure of the regional countries will have strategic consequences for different countries. In other words, shift of power and the political leaders in the Middle East will not only lead to a power vacuum in the region, but can also prepare the grounds for more fundamental changes in the regional security. In this process, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey have decided to affect the balance in the region. They are determined to reduce Iran's role in creating regional security in the Middle East.
This is the reason why, on one hand, they intend to change the balance in the regional power against Iran, and on the other, try to affect waves of modernism in formation of regional power. The current article has been prepared using descriptive and analytical method as well as library and electronic sources in order to determine effects of security instability on the balance of power in the Middle East. It has also been done on the basis of the change in the pattern of both regional and international power balance.
 
Methodology
In this article describe the methods - analytic and rely on the library resources and the Internet is trying to balance the advantage of integration and regionalism approach should be combined with
Each other and through this region and its impact on the balance of regional instability be analyzed. The main hypothesis that the article on this topic has emphasized that any political reform in the Middle East and Persian Gulf regional security environment, it affects their. On this basis, countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel attempt to change through the confiscation of the Middle East, the regional power balance organize against Iran.
 
Results and discussion
The findings of this article can be examined in following of six axes:

Emptive activities before the impact of regional instability: In Saudi Arabia on the coordination of UN Security Council, Arab League and the pattern of use with the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, Saudi Arabia, America and Turkey, In the changes the Middle East shows that the effects of pre-emptive intervention activities in the framework of regional integration is emerging.
America and Saudi influence in changing the balance of regional security cooperation: America's regional challenges in the environment can be a major restructuring aimed balanced patterns and policy present situation in the international system. In the years after the collapse of the bipolar structure of the new players and the actors to be effects in international politics was considered.
American strategic multilateralism, to the Limitation of Iran's regional power: Obama, along with multilateral strategic outcome seeks to "multilateral regional" also in America's foreign policy behavior will follow. This means that the field for the participation of actors and regional powers, with America and other emerging powers in multilateral institutions is to provide enough power through its non-aligned countries with limited America's global politics.
approach in balancing Iran's regional strategy: Iran's approach toward security cooperation with other regional countries in order to consolidation the balance of power is. Set the vision plan as an effective step to improve Iran's strategic cooperation with other countries is considered as the upstream due to the fact.
Security challenges against balance of Iran's regional policy: Regional balance policy has always been with the challenges and threats will be also confronting. Signs positions on how best it can be seen competing in the regional environment. Players can have influence on the power equation. The players only if the conditions can be challenging for the competitors who have the support of international or regional coalition.
Control mechanisms to waves of passing Regional balance: Behavioral patterns in such countries in order to fulfill the objectives and constraints facing national security and regional interests that can self-organize in the form Interaction-oriented pattern.

 
Conclusion
Findings of this article refer to the point that although epistemological manifestations of the Middle East developments are considered on the basis of the Islamic awakening, those countries that play the role of rivals for Iran, intend to bring changes into the balance of the regional power. This will, in short term, affect geopolitics of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. The developments have been able to create new challenges and opportunities for Iran's national security.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Instability
  • Balance of Power
  • Regional equilibrium
  • Multilateralism
  • Middle East