نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 مدیر گروه دیپلماسی دانشکده روابط بین الملل وزارت امور خارجه؛ رئیس پیشین اداره کل امور امریکای وزارت خارجه
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد دانشکده روابط بین الملل وزارت امور خارجه
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Extended Abstract
Intrduction
The Middle East is the ocean of crisis which there is many conflicts in everyday news about conflict among different sects, ethnics and tribes. Regarding to this fact, numerous analysts consider West Asia as the region of “Fault lines”. One of the deepest and the most controversial “Fault Lines” is “Kurdish Divergence and Separatism” which recently (Last year) resulted in holding a referendum; A referendum in which as KRG claims, up to 90% voted for “Independence”. This event concerned Iran, Turkey and Iraq because the governments felt a big threat from Kurdish separatism. Besides, some other actors such as the U.S and Israel considered the referendum, related to their interest and played role in it. Eventually despite Masoud Barezani and so many other separatists, the referendum did not culminate in a “Prosperous and independent Kurdistan”; the result of the referendum was nothing more than Frustration of separatists. In this article we are intended to scrutinize the causes of this frustration by answering this question: “Why did separation referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan face with a defeat?”
Methodology
To answer the question, we relied on the sources among books, articles, media and think-tank reports. Based on the studies we have done, we firstly described the roots of the referendum and in the next step we analyzed the causes of the frustration. By using media reports we made a content analysis. So in sum, the method which has been used in this article is descriptive-analytic.
Findings
To understand the causes of the referendum frustration, we utilized “Motivational Realism” and analyzed that political (not actual) Turkish government opposition, “Passive policy” of the U.S and “serious disagreement” of Iran and Iraq, stopped Barezani led project for an “Independent Kurdistan”. In other word, when Barezani was planning for referendum, he thought the U.S for standing against Iran’s influence, will support the move because Iraqi government was supposed to be on the Iran’s hand. According to KRG leaders’ evaluation, it was supposed Turkey government, as a result of flourished economic ties between Erbil and Ankara, will turn a blind eye to the referendum or even maybe support that. Regarding to Iran, KRG thought Iran will not have ability nor interest to dismiss the referendum because, Masoud Barezani repeatedly stated “an Independent Kurdistan will not threat neighboring countries integrity; in contrast it can help Iranian and Turkish government to solve their problem with their Kurds minorities”. And last but not the least, regarding to Iraqi government, Erbil officials was wrongly thinking that Baghdad which had received big blow from terrorism will not be able to confront with the Referendum and its outcomes.
Analysis
All these calculations were False. Regardless of passive policy which was taken by some Kurdish groups within KRG such as Gorran, the U.S administration insisted that “it is not a good time for holding referendum”. It means Washington was not considering Baghdad as “Iran’s Puppet State” so did not want it to be decompositioned. Ankara, in contrast of Kurdish separatist leaders’ calculations, at the political level, strongly opposed the referendum although never implemented its threats about cutting oil import or closing borders. Tehran, in such context, did not step straightly but after Baghdad’s request, did close the border and cut oil import. Obviously, I.R.I in political level strongly opposed the referendum and didn’t recognize its results. And Baghdad was not weak enough to give up; Hashd al-Shaabi, made Iraqi government strong enough to take military action against some Peshmerga positions, after political warnings. In such a context, Israel hidden and obvious supports from separatist Kurdish movement in Iraq would not be effective. So as the world saw, after holding referendum, nothing but frustration happened in KRG.
Conclusion
What happened for Iraqi Kurdistan after the separate referendum showed KRG officials miscalculate regarding to other actors’ reaction to hold referendum. The only actor strongly supported the move was Tel- Aviv. Washington emphasized “it is not right time for holding referendum”. Ankara although did not act economically but politically, opposed referendum. Baghdad by PMF and Iran’s supports could take some limited military action and liberate some really important areas such as Kirkuk. After these failures, Separatists in KRG figured out that they cannot put the results of the referendum into the effect. That’s why separatist referendum in KRG resulted in frustration.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
10. Bitawan (2017), “New Confrontations between the Party and P.K.K”, Available at: http://bitawan.com/?p=27519 [in Persian].
11. Brookes, Peter (2007).” A Turkey-Iraq War? Ankara Seething with Rage at Kurdish Terrorist Groups”, Heritage Foundation.
12. Brookings (2017). The Middle East 2017, Middle East Conference on Brookings Institute.
13. Charountaki, Marianna (2012). “Turkish Foreign Policy and the Kurdistan Regional Government”, Perceptions.
14. Coffey, Luke (2016).”US Must Plan Now for the Day Mosul Is liberated”, Heritage Foundation.
15. Dastmali, Mohmadali (2015). “Turkey and Kurdish Challenge”, Strategic Studies Quarterly. [In Persian].
16. European Parliament (2016), EU strategy for relations with Iran after Nuclear Deal. Directorate General for External Policies.
17. Ezzati, Ezatollah & Nanva, Soheila (2011). “Iran Foreign Policy and Challenges with Respect to Changes in Iraq Political System”, International Geopolitics Quarterly. [In Persian].
18. Feng, Liu (2006).” The Typologies of Realism”, Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol:1, pp109-134.
19. Ferris, Elizabeth (2014).” The Past and Future of Minorities in Iraq”, Brookings.
20. Frantzman, Seth (2017),” Kurds Are Flying Israeli Flags in Independence Rallies” (17/8/2017), Jerusalem Post, Online Available at: http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/In-Photos-Kurds-are-flying-Israeli-flags-at-independence-rallies-505289
21. Fuller, Graham (1993). “The Kurds and the Destiny of Middle East”, RAND.
22. Ghadiri, Hojjatolah & Mahdi Bigdlu (2013). Geopolitics and Geostrategic, Sayyad Shirazi Research Center. [In Persian].
23. Ghoreyshi, Karin & Ghanbari, Arash (2014). “Kurds Relations with Safavi and Ottoman Governments”, Research of Local Histories in Iran, 3th Year. [In Persian].
24. Giesen, Janet (2008).”Constructivism; A holistic approach to learning”, Northern Illinois University.
25. Glassner, Martin Ira (1993), Political Geography, John Wiley and sons.
26. Hajiyousefi, Mohammad & Imani, Hemmat (2010). “Possibility of Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria Coalition”, Security Research Quarterly. [In Persian].
27. Hanauer, Larry (2011). Managing Arab-Kurd Tensions in Northern Iraq After Withdrawal of U.S Troops, RAND.
28. Jam Kurdi (2017), Turkmans Disagreement with Holding Referendum, Available at: http://fa.jamekurdi.com/news/%D9%85%D8 [in Persian].
29. Jamnews.ir (2017), “Barezani Interview”, Available at: http://www.jamnews.ir/detail/News/367682.
30. Kalin, Stephan (2016), “Disputes About Turkish Troops Throws Future of Mosul into Question” (7/1/2016), Reuters, Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-turkey/dispute-over-turkish-troops-throws-future-of-mosul-into-question-idUSKBN0UL1DF20160107.
31. Kazemi, Masoud & Parvaneh Azizi (2011).” Iraqi Kurdistan; Geopolitical Heartland for Israel’, Rahbord Quarterly, 20th Year, NO60; pp141-168. [In Persian].
32. Khojamli, Abdolwahab (2012). “Explanation of Iran Geopolitical Situation”, Holy Defense Quarterly. [In Persian].
33. Koolaee, Elahe; Rahman Hariri & Behnaz Asadi (2016). “Kurdish Issue in Iran- Turkey Relations”, International Geopolitics Quarterly. [In Persian].
34. Mills, Robin (2016). Under the Mountains: Kurdish Oil and Regional Politics, The Oxford institute for Energy Studies.
35. Moradi, Eskandar; Zeyaodin Saboori (2014). “Possibility of Formation of Kurdish Region in Northern Syria”, Global Policy Quarterly. [In Persian].
36. Mottaghi, Afshin & Rashid, Mostafa (2014). “Introduction of Constructivist Geopolitical Approach”, Geography and Deveplopment. [In Persian].
37. Nader, Alireza (2016). Regional Implication of an Independent Kurdistan, RAND.
38. Ottaway, Marina; Brown, Nathan (2008).” The New Middle East, Carnegie.
39. Pishgamifard,Zahra (2009). Role of Anti Geopolitics in Geopolitical Thoughts”, International Geopolitics Quarterly. [In Persian].
40. Pollack, Kenneth (2016). “Iraq Situation Report: Part3; Kurdistan”, Brookings.
41. Pollak, Kenneth (2016).” Iraq in the Eye of the Storm”, Brookings.
42. Rudaw (2017), “Kurdistan Region to Hold Referendum on sept 25(13/6/2017), Available at: http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/070620171.
43. Sajedi,Amir & Faramarz Amjadian(2010). “Impact of Iraqi Kurdistan Federalism on Ethnic Political Norms in Iran”, International Geopolitics Quarterly. [In Persian].
44. UN (2017), UN chief voices concern over ‘potentially destabilizing effects’ of Kurdish referendum”, (12/8/2017). UN, Online Available at: https://news.un.org/en/story/2017/09/567012-un-chief-voices-concern-over-potentially-destabilizing-effects-kurdish.
45. Werz, Micheal (2014) “The United States, Turkey, and the Kurdish Regions”, Center for American Progress.
46. William, Paul R & Simpson, Matthew T (2008), "Rethinking the Political Future: An Alternative to The Ethno Sectarian Division of Iraq”, American International Law Review.
)
