تحلیل سیستمی الزامات، هزینه ها و اثربخشی بسته سیاستی احداث آب ‏شیرین کن اتمی در سواحل دریای عمان برای انتقال آب به دشت سیستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی آمایش سرزمین، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

با توجه به وابستگی نواحی شرقی کشور به منابع آب ورودی از کشور افغانستان، گزینه­های روی میز مختلفی برای کاهش وابستگی این نواحی به منابع آب ورودی به کشور ارائه شده­اند. همانند بسیاری از کشورهای دنیا به‌خصوص در خاورمیانه که با بحران آب مواجه می­باشند، یکی از مهمترین این گزینه­ها استفاده از فناوری شیرین­سازی آب شور دریاها برای مرتفع ساختن مشکل کم‌آبی است. در این راستا با توجه به هزینه بالای این بسته سیاستی که معمولاً مبتنی بر استفاده از انرژی الکتریسیته و به‌تبع آن سوخت­های فسیلی می­باشد و نیز آلودگی­های زیست محیطی منتج از آن، استفاده از انرژی اتمی برای شیرین­سازی آب دریا در کانون توجه ذی‌مدخلان مربوطه قرار گرفته است. با توجه به پتانسیل خوب کشور در استفاده از سواحل دریای عمان، به لحاظ اتصال به اقیانوس هند و نیز دارا بودن دانش و توانایی استفاده از انرژی اتمی، این بسته سیاستی از اهمیت استراتژیک بالایی برخوردار است. در این خصوص تحلیل الزامات و هزینه­های بلند مدت اجرای بسته سیاستی مزبور از پنج نقطه‌نظر ظرفیت نیروگاه اتمی مورد نیاز، کیفیت آب مورد انتظار، فاصله تا مقصد مورد نظر برای انتقال آب، هزینه در دسترس بودن منابع انرژی برای انتقال آب و ملاحظات زیست محیطی بررسی و به‌منظور ارزیابی نهایی بسته سیاستی مزبور، الزامات، هزینه­ها و اثربخشی آن با چهار بسته­ سیاستی دیگر شامل افزایش تاب‌آوری دشت سیستان به کاهش منابع آب، خرید آب از کشور افغانستان، سیاست تلفیقی از تاب‌آوری و راه‌اندازی آب شیرین کن اتمی و نهایتاً ادامه وضعیت موجود تا سال 2050 میلادی با استفاده از توسعه یک مدل شبیه­ساز سیستمی مورد مقایسه قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که سیاست مبتنی بر راه‌اندازی آب شیرین کن اتمی در صورت تلفیق با سیاست افزایش تاب‌آوری در قالب سیاست تلفیقی، پایدارترین بسته سیاستی در کاهش وابستگی دشت سیستان به منابع آب ورودی به کشور  و به‌تبع آن در کاهش وابستگی کشور به منابع آب ورودی از کشور افغانستان خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Systematic Analysis of the Requirements, Costs and ‎Effectiveness of Setting up Nuclear Water Desalination at ‎Oman Sea Coasts for Water Transferring to Sistan Plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadreza Shahbazbegian 1
  • Maral Sadeghi 2
1 Assistant Professor of geography and spatial planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Ph.D Student of Geography and Rural Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran‎
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract     
Introduction
Due to the dependence of the eastern part of the country on the water supplying from Afghanistan, various options on the table have been proposed to reduce the dependence of these areas on entered trans-boundary water resources. As with many countries in the world, especially in the Middle East, faced with a water crisis, one of the most important options is the use of seawater salt desalination technology to address the problem of water shortage. In this regard, given the high cost of this policy package, which is usually based on the use of electric energy and consequently fossil fuels, as well as resulting in environmental pollution, the use of atomic energy for sea water desalination is in the spotlight of the relevant customers. In that occasion, considering the country's high potential for using the Oman Sea coast, due to its connection to the Indian Ocean and the country’s knowledge and ability to use atomic energy, this policy package is of great strategic importance.
Methodology
In this regard, analysis of long term requirements and costs of implementing the policy option from five viewpoints including atomic nuclear capacity, expected water quality, distance to desired destination for water transferring the cost of required energy and finally environmental regards have been dealt with. Then to evaluation the policy option in compare to four other policy options as rival options, based on increasing resilience, buying water from Afghanistan, integrated policy consisting of increasing resilience and lunching nuclear water desalination and finally business as usual until 2050 , the same process has been adopted through a given system simulation model.
Conclusion
The results indicate that the policy option based on setting up a nuclear water desalination system in combination with that of increasing resilience in the form of the integrated policy will be the most stable policy package in reducing the dependence of Sistan plain on the water resources entered from the country and, consequently will reduce the dependency of the country on water resources emanating from Afghanistan.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Nuclear water desalination
  • Oman Sea
  • Sistan plain
  • Resilience
  • Negotiation.‎
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