ارزیابی قدرت منطقه‌ای ایران معاصر: مقایسه پهلوی دوم و جمهوری اسلامی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

نمایش قدرت ایران در عمان و سوریه در قالب عملیات نظامی برون مرزی در دوران معاصر موجب مطرح شدن ایران به عنوان یک قدرت منطقه ای شده است. این نمایش قدرت مرهون موقعیت و ویژگی‌های منحصربفرد داخلی در کنار تاثیر پذیری از رخدادهای منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی بوده است. این مقاله با مفروض گرفتن قدرت منطقه ای ایران در نیم قرن اخیر و با بهره‌گیری از روش تحلیلی-توصیفی در پی پاسخ به این پرسش است که نقش مولفه‌های قدرت ملی در افزایش قدرت و نفوذ منطقه‌ای ایران معاصر چه بوده است؟ یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می دهد چهار متغیر موقعیت جغرافیایی(ژئوپلیتیکی-ژئواکونومیکی)، مولفه‌های اقتصادی(درآمدهای نفتی، تولید ناخالص داخلی، سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی، صادرات و واردات)، مولفه قدرت نظامی(استراتژی،هزینه ها و تجهیزات نظامی) و مولفه هویتی تاثیر مهمی در ارتقا قدرت منطقه‌ای ایران داشته است. همچنین ضریب نفوذ منطقه‌ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران به واسطه افزایش درآمدهای نفتی، بهره‌گیری از مزیت ژئوپلیتیک-ژئواکونومیک، توانمندی نظامی، اتخاذ هویت جهانشمول و حوزه نفوذ گسترده‌تر افزایش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Regional Power of Contemporary Iran: Comparing Pahlavi II and the Islamic Republic

نویسندگان [English]

  • amir-hossein vazirian 1
  • abolfazl shakoori 2
1 Ph.D. candidate of political science at Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran
2 Associate Professor of political science at Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract
Intrduction
The emergence of Iran's regional power dates back to the Pahlavi era, when the Shah sought the doctrine of Nixon as a regional gendarme in the Persian Gulf. In the international context, such as the deconstruction of the superpowers in the era of the Cold War, the announcement of the Nixon doctrine to transfer the security of the regions to the states in line with it and the vacuum resulting from the departure of Britain from the Persian Gulf, along with regional factors such as the fear of the Shah's influence on the Soviet influence and the expansion of governments Arab radicals played an important role in enhancing the regional status of Iran (Mousavinia, 2013; 130-118). The main objective of Iran was to maintain Persian Gulf security and to deal with regional threats. The reflection of Iran's rising power and regional influence can be seen in the direct presence of Iran in Dhofar in the 1970s, support for Yemeni monarchists in their civil war against Leftist Republicans, support for King Malek Hassan II of Morocco in the battle with police guards and increased military aid to Pakistan saw their tensions with India (Chamankar, 2010; 70-61). The adoption of the policy of "no east, no west" in Iranian foreign policy after the Islamic revolution brought about dramatic changes in regional balance and stability, which resulted in the disappearance of the policy of the two American pillars in the Persian Gulf and the change of regional alliances of Iran.(Axworthy, 2013: 24). Reducing US hegemony in the 21st century, and increasing the role of actors such as China and Russia in the global arena along with regional developments such as the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Arab revolutions in 2011, have strengthened the role of Shiite groups and created a regional coalition of resistance to Iran's leadership, which ultimately led to an increase in the regional influence of Iran (Barzegar, 2015; 35-34). In this period, the most significant reflection of Iran's regional expansion could be seen in the direct presence of Iran's military forces in Iraq and Syria, material assistance to Lebanon's Hezbollah, and counter new security threats such as the emergence of ISIS in the region. The remarkable point in the emergence and retrieval of Iran's regional power is that, firstly, under the influence of the vacuum of power in the region, the influence of Iran has gained an upward trend. This issue occurred during the Pahlavi period following the departure of Britain from the Persian Gulf in 1968 and in the Islamic Republic after the fall of Saddam Hussein by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Arab revolutions of 2011. Secondly, in both of these two periods, Iran was turning to an offshore military operation to combat radicalism in the region. Iran's military operations in Dhofar have been through opposition to communist radicalism and in Iraq and Syria through the struggle against Islamic radicalism (al-Qaeda and ISIS). Although international and regional developments have played a significant role in increasing Iran's influence in both periods, it seems that whenever national power increases, its external reflection is to increase regional influence. Accordingly, this paper seeks to answer the question of how the role of the national power component in increasing the regional power and influence of Iran in the last half century? For this purpose, first, in the theoretical framework, we will analyze the features of regional power and national power, and then we will examine the role of the components of national power through the review of the regional policy of Iran in the two Pahlavi and Islamic Republic periods.
 
Metodology
This paper uses a comparative approach and analytical-descriptive research method to explain its desired subject and the method of data collection is based on library resources.
 
Result and Discussion
The theoretical framework of this paper consists of two concepts of regional power and national power. Regional power is a particular type of division of government in which national power is considered as the main criterion. The nature of regional powers is determined by the position of countries in the international system, which is itself influenced by the concept of polarity and the distribution of power in the international system (Griffiths, 2009:746). Saul Bernard Cohen places regional power in the second category of the hierarchy of power in the international system, and believes that regional powers firstly try to raise themselves up as the nucleus and center of the region. Second, follow the military penetration in the region. And thirdly, there are supremacist demands throughout the region (Cohen, 2008:103-107). The point that is important in identifying regional powers is to have relative capabilities, the tendency to display, apply it at the regional level, and influence and influence the process of regional developments. In other words, acting as a regional power, which first has regional function, and secondly, the sources of power as the essential condition for achieving regional power (Salimi, dehghani Firouzabadi and PourEsmaeili,2017 6). Since one of the most important features of regional powers with relative capabilities is the recognition of national power as a geopolitical concept. The function of the national power is that the more a country has a higher national power, there are fewer obstacles to realizing its own national interests and, secondly, the expansion, expansion, and extension of national interests (Hafeznia,2005:252). Various models have been presented to measure national power. The extension of the components of national power has led the paper to focus on four major components. In the geographic ingredient, geographical location of the country, population and strategic position of Iran will be addressed in the region. Economic component for measuring the economic situation of the country on seven factors of economic growth rate, inflation rate, oil revenues, GDP (GDP, GDP per capita, export volume and its share of gross domestic product, import volume and its share of gross production Internal emphasizes. In addition to strategy, to assess military strength, the number of personnel, costs, and military equipment have been looked at as fundamental variables. Finally, in the identity component, the main emphasis of this paper was on identity changes and its impact on Iran's foreign policy orientation.
 
Result and Discussion:
The country's territorial status is climate-friendly, access to the sea and rivers, communication routes, natural resources and energy reserves is of great importance. Iran is a land which, given geographical location, natural conditions and cultural values, has been the cradle of Asia and the world of civilization, and its domestic political and foreign policy actions have been largely dependent on its geographical location (Hafeznia, 276:1384). In addition, Iran's transit status has been given to Iran by other countries in the Persian Gulf and in the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran, where more than 17 million barrels of oil are transported to the West. At the same time as the geographic location of Iran, its location near the Gulf and Oman Sea coast, its proximity to the Soviet Union and the rich oil resources, has led Iran to be considered as one of the barriers to the influence of American strategy and to As the connecting ring of the two NATO alliances and the Sento (etaat, 2006:188). After the end of the Cold War and the independence of the Soviet republics of Iran, it became more important than the Cold War for its unique position and its location in the midst of two world-class hydrocarbon warehouses - Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. The connection of the Iranian railway network to Central Asia and the expansion of ground communications as well as the connection of the Central Asian oil and gas transmission network to the oil and gas pipelines of Iran has transformed the country into the crossroads and transit center for commercial goods and communications between East and West Asia. (Mojtahad-zadeh,51:1379). Iran, which was important from a strategic perspective during the Cold War, followed the Cold War with a geo-economic factor and found a privileged regional location. Economically, oil revenues have played a significant role in the Iranian economy in two periods. The total oil revenues of Iran in 1973-1979 amounted to about $ 112 billion, and in the years 2017-2002 it is estimated at $ 992 billion. The average growth rate in the Pahlavi era was 10% and the average inflation rate was 8%. While in the Islamic Republic these figures were 3 and 8 percent, respectively. In addition, Growth was 5.6 times the GDP and 2.2 times exports in the Pahlavi era versus a 3-fold increase in GDP and 7.2 exports equaled other distinct economic components in these two periods (The World Bank, IMF). From the military perspective, the 32% defense spending from the 1970-1979 budget against the 16% share of Iran after September 11, 2001 reflected the Pahlavi government's militaristic morale. From the aspect of identity, Pahlavi emphasized on ancient nationalism and the Islamic Republic on Shiite Islam, which has had important implications for regional security.
 
 
 
 
Conclusion
The components of national power have played a significant role in the regional power of Iran over the past half century. The strategic geographic location and the presence of Iran in the Persian Gulf had two major roles due to the importance of huge oil resources in each period. During the second Pahlavi, Iran played the role of a regional power because of the presence in the West Belt of Security through the geostrategic-geopolitical advantage. Following the departure of this position due to the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution and the end of the Cold War, Iran, along with retaining the geopolitical advantage, also gained an economic advantage. Economic indicators are also significant in these two periods. In both periods, the unprecedented increase in oil prices and, as a result of rising domestic incomes, created a great opportunity to play an active regional role. Although some of the economic indicators of the Pahlavi era have a favorable situation, it is necessary to note that, firstly, in terms of economic indicators, both oil price increases in both periods have led to widespread imports, for example, in 1978, the volume of imports from exports grew further. However, from this perspective, in the period 2016-2002, the volume of imports has never exceeded exports. Secondly, although oil revenues have played a large role in the economy during each period, the dependence of the Pahlavi economy on oil revenues has been greater than the Islamic Republic. From a military point of view, the average military spending during the Pahlavi period was about 32%, while during the Islamic Republic it was about 16% of the total government budget, indicating that it was militaristic in the Pahlavi state. The Pahlavi government has also used nationalism as an identity to display its distinction, which was due both to domestic needs (the crisis of legitimacy) and to the developments of the region (the emergence of Arab nationalism). In contrast to the Islamic Republic's emphasis on Shiite identity. On the whole, it can be said that although in both periods Iran has been considered as a regional power in the Middle East, the regional influence of Iran during the Islamic Republic is due to factors such as geopolitical-geo-economic advantages, significant oil revenues, military capabilities, the adoption of identity Universality and broader spheres of influence than Pahlavi era have increased.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Regional power
  • National Power
  • Iranian foreign policy
  • military strategy
  • Geopolitics
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