انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک 1735-4331 22 1 2026 04 21 Identifying and Explaining Key Drivers Influencing Israel's National Security Strategy in Middle East based on Scenario Planning شناسایی و تبیین پیشران‌های کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر راهبرد امنیت ملی اسراییل در غرب آسیا برپایه سناریونگاری 41 80 241617 10.22034/igq.2026.547983.2092 FA سیدجلال دهقانی فیروزآبادی استاد روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران. 0000-0003-1055-531X علیرضا صحرایی دانش‌آموخته دکترای علوم سیاسی و کاندیدای فوق دکترای روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران. 0000-0003-1330-0646 Journal Article 2025 11 14 Extended abstract Introduction The West Asian region is one of the most important strategic regions in the world due to its geopolitical location, and one of the common denominators of the threat to the Islamic world and the Middle East is Israel, which has created a security bottleneck in the region and is considered an important axis of conflict in the Middle East security complex. The main goal of this research is to identify and explain the key drivers affecting Israel's national security strategy in West Asia. The basic research question is formulated as follows: What are the most important key drivers affecting the Zionist regime's national security strategy in the West Asia region in the time horizon of 2035? Methodology This research, considering the multiple approaches adopted, and considering the purpose of the research, the necessity of pluralism in the method will be considered; the research method in this research is a mixed method with an exploratory approach, and the statistical population of the research purposefully includes 19 experts and scholars in the field of foreign policy and international relations from universities in the country. Information collection was carried out using the library method and holding expert panels and using the brainstorming technique and questionnaire tool. Through library studies and conducting interviews in the form of brainstorming and brainstorming sessions, a number of driving forces will be identified and defined as driving forces. In addition, among the identified driving forces, the most effective driving forces in the research field will be identified and counted using the future research software Mikmak and the application of the interaction matrix effect analysis. Accordingly, the methodological basis of the research was to use the most important variables affecting the Zionist regime's national security strategy in West Asia to determine the impact of each of the mentioned variables using a futures research method. To investigate this goal, the MiqMaq software, which is designed for cross-effect analysis, was used. Result and Discussion According to the data provided by the structural analysis with the Miqmac software, Israel’s strategy has a complex power and dependency structure that is categorized into four main quadrants. This analysis is based on the logic of structural analysis and complex systems theory, which is reflected in the Miqmac method (Godet, 1991; Arcade et al., 2003). The software output of the variables affecting Israel’s national security strategy in West Asia in the 2035 horizon indicates that among the sixteen selected variables, five variables are in the group of influential variables (textural or determinant), four variables are identified in the group of dichotomous variables (one risk variable, three variables as target variables), five variables are in the group of influenced variables, and one variable is in the group of independent (or leverage) variables. Ultimately, this system has a regulatory variable called "Creating a security platform and equipping military programs and purchasing from the West," and it is the only factor that has the greatest impact on other variables. Conclusion In conclusion, based on the future study of Israel’s national security strategy in the coming decade (until 2035), it should be said that the regime’s strategy revolves around managing an inherent paradox: as dependence on conflict-oriented drivers such as maintaining superiority through military containment (Palestine, Iran), control of vital resources (water), and ideological warfare (Zionism) continues as the traditional foundations of power and security; on the other hand, efforts to reduce dependence and achieve stability through the expansion of normalization to reduce isolation and simultaneous threats, strengthening the economy and energy security for domestic prosperity, and investing in technology to maintain military superiority and reduce dependence on the West continue. Therefore, the key strategic challenges include: 1. Inherent instability: The system is heavily dependent on factors that are inherently unstable (the ongoing conflict with Palestine, the existential threat of Iran, the fragility of the diaspora, fluctuations in Western support, geopolitical risks, and normalization). Any shock in these areas could plunge the entire system into crisis. 2. Fundamental contradiction: A strategy based on continuing the occupation and conflict with the Palestinians is the most important obstacle to the sustainable realization of other goals such as deepening normalization with the Arab world (especially Saudi Arabia), increasing international legitimacy, and reducing pressure on the diaspora. Resolving this contradiction (without changing the nature of the relationship with the Palestinians) seems almost impossible. 3.Resource pressure: The huge costs of maintaining security (military, cyber, technological), countering multi-layered threats, and investing in relative self-sufficiency will put increasing pressure on the economy, especially if global growth slows or sanctions increase. 4.Crisis of Legitimacy: The escalation of the Palestinian conflict and discriminatory policies erode Israel’s international legitimacy, strengthen movements like BDS, and deepen the gap with the diaspora and Western supporters, which in turn feeds a vicious cycle of increasing isolation and insecurity. 5.Multiple existential threats: Israel faces multiple existential threats, including; Iran’s nuclearization, a multi-front war of attrition, the collapse of the normalization process, a profound water and environmental crisis, and a break with the diaspora. Managing these threats simultaneously is very complex. Therefore, Israel’s national security strategy in the coming decade will be a defensive-offensive, technology-driven, and deeply Western-dependent strategy that seeks to manage chronic structural conflicts while simultaneously exploiting geopolitical opportunities (normalization) to reduce isolation and threats. The inherent fragility of this system, resulting from the interdependence of key variables, strategic contradictions (especially between occupation and normalization), and high sensitivity to external shocks, poses enormous challenges and existential risks to achieving sustainable security and stabilizing its geostrategic position. The continuation of the status quo is the most likely scenario, but this path traps Israel in a vicious cycle of insecurity, rising costs, and declining legitimacy. A fundamental change in the approach to the Palestinian issue is the only possible way to break this cycle and achieve long-term stability, but this change seems unlikely by 2035 and with the current mix of internal and external forces. Israel is therefore likely to face a turbulent, costly, and increasingly uncertain decade ahead. In the 2035 horizon, the Zionist regime’s national security strategy will depend more than ever on maintaining the flow of Western weapons, innovating and continuously upgrading its technology-based security platforms, and symbolically managing the Palestinian issue (including the display of negotiations with the PLO) to maintain the status quo and relative legitimacy. Failure in any of these areas could severely threaten the stability and security of this regime. Military power has a direct and decisive impact on deterrence, bargaining power in negotiations, border security, and even the stability of normalizing states. Disruption in this flow will undermine the foundation of the security strategy. It is predicted that Israel will move towards strengthening its hardware power (military-economic) and redefining its Zionist identity in the face of internal/external challenges. The analysis of the mik-mak and the scenarios extracted from it show that Israel’s national security strategy is built on a fragile foundation. On the threshold of 2035, the regime is at a crucial crossroads between “normalization in the region” and “alliance with the West.” The desirable scenario (strategic alliance) for the Zionist regime requires extraordinary diplomatic acumen and maintaining Western support. The disaster scenario (ruined dream) is a serious warning that relying solely on hard power and neglecting diplomacy can lead to irreparable consequences. The two middle scenarios (perfect storm and besieged fortress) indicate complex situations that force Israel to make difficult choices and reconsider its strategic priorities. The fragility of regulatory and bidirectional variables is the key to understanding the future. “Creating a security environment” and “normalization” are not only the goals, but also the vulnerable points of this complex system, any change in which will create a completely different future for the Zionist regime. منطقه خاورمیانه با توجه به جایگاه ژئوپلیتیکی خود، یکی از مناطق استراتژیک عمده در سطح جهانی محسوب می‌شود. در این چارچوب، دولت اسرائیل به‌عنوان عامل مشترک تهدیدآفرین برای جهان اسلام و خاورمیانه عمل نموده و علاوه بر ایجاد فضای امنیتی تشنج‌آمیز در منطقه، به مثابه کانون اصلی تعارض در این مجموعه امنیتی قلمداد می‌گردد. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، تبیین و شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر راهبرد امنیت ملی اسرائیل در محیط خاورمیانه می‌باشد. پرسمان اساسی پژوهش چنین صورت‌بندی می‌شود که مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر راهبرد امنیت ملی رژیم صهیونیستی در منطقه خاورمیانه در افق زمانی 2035 کدام‌اند؟ جهت پاسخ به سؤال پژوهش، با رویکردی آینده‌پژوهانه از روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و سناریونویسی استفاده شده است. یافتههای پژوهش حاکی از آن است که از میان شانزده متغیر انتخابی، پنج متغیر در گروه متغیرهای بافتی قرار دارند، چهار متغیر در گروه متغیرهای دووجهی شناسایی شده است، پنج متغیر در گروه متغیرهای تأثیرپذیر هستند و یک متغیر نیز در گروه متغیرهای مستقل قرار گرفته‌اند. در نهایت این سیستم دارای یک متغیر تنظیمی به‌نام «ایجاد بستر امنیتی و تجهیز برنامه‌های نظامی و خرید از غرب» بوده و تنها عاملی است که صرفاً دارای بیشترین تأثیرگذاری بر سایر متغیرها را داراست.مبتنی بر یافته‌های پژوهش، دو پیشران «عادی‌سازی روابط اعراب و اسرائیل» و «تجهیز برنامه‌های نظامی و خرید از غرب» به‌عنوان محورهای اصلی با بیشترین عدم‌قطعیت انتخاب شده و چهار سناریوی «اتحاد استراتژیک»(مطلوب‌ترین حالت برای اسرائیل)، «طوفان کامل»(سناریوی پارادوکس‌آمیز)، «قلعه تحت محاصره»(تداوم وضع موجود در شدیدترین حالت) و «رؤیای تباه»(بدبینانه‌ترین و پرریسک‌ترین حالت) قابل‌ترسیم می‌باشند.

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