انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک 1735-4331 14 51 2018 10 23 Political-Security Impacts of Drying of Lake Urmia پیامدهای سیاسی- امنیتی خشک شدن دریاچه ارومیه 95 127 81750 FA سیروس احمدی نوحدانی عضو هیات علمی گروه و قطب علمی جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس 0009-0008-9395-1521 محمد اکبر زاده کارشناس ارشد جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2017 02 10 Extended Abstract        Introduction Impacts of geopolitical consequences, along with political, social, economic, and security conflicts and tensions caused by the drying of lakes are indisputable. Awareness of the key beneficiaries and authorities in national, regional, and local levels, challenges and biological problems of the region of Azerbaijan and the consequences of this biological crisis can considerably affect the national security. Methodology Using descriptive-analytical methodology to detect the results of the lake drying, a questionnaire was designed by the authors and filled out by specialists. The SPSS software and one-sample T-test was used to analysis the results. Findings The findings of this study are discussed in the following headlines: 1- The threat of Salt Storms: The dryness of the lake causes sedimentation of salt sediments and the emergence of a suitable repository for the formation of dangerous micro-organisms in the event of severe storms. The salt storm phenomenon causes the destruction of agricultural lands and increase in diseases such as asthma, cancer, etc. 2- Poverty and unemployment: Considering that the villagers are poorer they do not have the necessary knowledge to deal with the hazards, their vulnerability is also higher. Reducing regional economic activity will increase in unemployment, reduce the income of indigenous people, and as a result, increase in poverty. 3- Immigration: The drying of Lake Urmia will destroy thousands hectares of agricultural lands around the lake, the smallest consequence is unemployment and migration of nearly 3 million peoples in the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan. 4- The closure of the Conversion Industry: With the destruction of agricultural lands in the lake Urmia due to the drying of deep wells in agricultural lands, 34 conversion factories were closed just in West Azerbaijan province and caused irreparable effects in all economic, industrial, social, and cultural domains, and will cause compulsory immigration of villagers and marginalization around the cities. 5- Severe damage to Tourism: The drying of Lake Urmia has worsened the tourism situation in the region. In addition to the natural environment, the drying of the Lake Urmia affects the economic and social environment of the region, in recent years, with the continuation of the ascending trend of the lake water decline, witnessed the destruction of housing estates, recreational and residential complexes, the destruction of coastal infrastructure, the unemployment of local residents, migration of residents of the villages on the margin of the lake, reduce of the tourists arrival, reduce of the incomes of the region from the tourism industry. With the drying of Lake Urmia water, investment in the lake's tourism sector has become difficult, and other marine tourism facilities in this area are not possible. 6- Outbreaks of Diseases: Comparative studies on the world's dry Lakes indicate that the prevalence of various diseases in this area is probably due to the drying of Lake Urmia. Other disadvantages include: Increasing infant mortality rates, low birth weight, late maturity, anemia, respiratory diseases, immune system damage, neurological and behavioral changes, and infectious disease. These studies also confirm the emergence of social anomalies, general distrust in government performance, the challenge of managing regional space and ethnic, tribal conflicts and marginalization. Analysis In this research, it became clear that the most important political security consequences of the Lake Urmia drying are as follows: increasing tribal conflicts, general distrust about government performance, challenge of managing area space, increasing marginalization, development of social anomalies, damage to national integration and development, reducing the national security coefficient, increasing poverty and inequality, strengthening opposition groups, threatening existence and weakening national power. Conclusion Based on the results of the one-sample T-test, field studies and library information, the impacts of ethnic and tribal conflicts, reduction in welfare level of the surrounding residents, reduction in tourism statistics, public distrust in government activities, high unemployment rates, challenges in managing the regional issues, deprivation of living in one’s favorite place, marginalization, increase in social disorders, damaging national integration and development, decrease in national security rate, poverty and inequality, closure of alternant industries, reinforcement of groups opposing the Islamic Republic, threatening the national entity and country survival, and attenuation of the national power were confirmed. پیامدهای ژئوپلیتیکی، تنش‌های سیاسی، امنیتی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی ناشی از خشک شدن دریاچه‌ها، کشورها را با مشکلات جدی مواجه می‌سازد. اطلاع و آگاهی مدیران سیاسی و مسئولین کشور از چالش‌ها و مسائل زیست‌محیطی منطقه آذربایجان و آگاهی از پیامدهای حاصل از این بحران زیست‌محیطی می‌تواند در این زمینه تأثیر به​سزایی در اتخاذ سیاست‌های آنها در سطح ملی و محلی داشته باشد و امنیت ملی را پایدار سازد. بدین منظور با استفاده از روش‌شناسی توصیفی- تحلیلی، برای شناسایی پیامدهای خشک شدن دریاچه علاوه بر مصاحبه‌ با ساکنان ارومیه، مشاهدات عینی نگارندگان و مصاحبه با کشاورزان روستاهای اطراف دریاچه و مصاحبه با مسئولین آذربایجان غربی و شرقی، پرسشنامه‌ای تدوین و توسط اساتید و متخصصان تکمیل گردید. سپس از نرم‌افزار SPSS و آزمون تی تک نمونه‌ای استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که پیامدهای سیاسی امنیتی ناشی از خشک شدن دریاچه ارومیه عبارتند از: درگیری‌های قومی و طایفه‌ای، کاهش سطح رفاه ساکنان پیرامون دریاچه، کاهش ورود گردشگر، بی‌اعتمادی عمومی نسبت به عملکرد حکومت، افزایش بیکاری، چالش در مدیریت فضای منطقه، محروم شدن انسان‌ها از زیستن در مکان مورد علاقه، حاشیه​نشینی، توسعه ناهنجاریهای اجتماعی، آسیب به یکپارچگی و توسعه ملی، کاهش ضریب امنیت ملی، فقر و نابرابری، تعطیلی صنایع تبدیلی، تقویت گروه‌های معارض و مخالف نظام، تهدید موجودیت ملی، بقای کشور و تضعیف قدرت ملی. https://journal.iag.ir/article_81750_3cedf820aad09dd5fe2e37df856bb43a.pdf