https://journal.iag.ir/ فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک fa daily 1 Fri, 05 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0330 Fri, 05 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0330 https://journal.iag.ir/article_235499.html منازعات کرونیک همواره مورد توجه پژوهش‌گران بوده است و از این رو، خاورمیانه می‌ تواند یک مورد مطالعاتی جذاب برای آنان باشد. بررسی‌ ها نشان می‌دهد که اسرائیل با فراوانی بیشتر یک طرف درگیر در منازعات بوده و مداقه در کیفیت‌ منازعات اسرائیل ما را به شناسایی الگویی مطلوب از مبارزه برای این کشور می‌رساند: منازعات کوتاه. این الگوی منازعه به‌ مدت هشت دهه مبنای رفتاری اسرائیل بوده است. اما این الگو بر منازعه اخیر اسرائیل - حماس در 2023 قابلیت کاربست ندارد. بنابراین ، پرسش آن است که «علل طولانی شدن جنگ اسرائیل و حماس در 2023 چیست» . فرضیه آن است که مؤلفه‌های فرهنگ استراتژیک اسرائیل همچون تسلط خرده‌ فرهنگ تعارض بر رهبران، بازدارندگی تجمعی، تلقی آخرالزمانی از جنگ، افزایش عمق استراتژیک و تسلط بر منابع انرژی باعث کرونیک‌ شدن منازعه با حماس شده است. این مقاله ماهیتی تبیینی - علّی دارد و بر تحلیل داده‌های ثانویه استوار است. https://journal.iag.ir/article_235949.html Abstract The Educational policy is a fundamental pillar for building active citizenship and providing the individuals with the knowledge, values, and skills that enable them to participate effectively in sustainable development. In fact, education is a strategic tool for building a just and participatory society. Active citizenship is impossible without constructive and productive educational policies that instill values of belonging, promote civic engagement, and build a democratic culture that enshrines the principles of dialogue, tolerance, cooperation, and the rejection of violence within all segments of society. In this concern, the Canadian model stands out as a successful example of integrating education with active citizenship, while the Lebanese experience has faced challenges that have hindered the provision of sufficient funding for developing educational infrastructure and integrating the concepts of sustainability and citizenship into the educational process, in addition to sectarianism, political division, and weak equal opportunities. This research seeks to highlight the interrelationship between these elements and offer practical recommendations for strengthening them within a sound scientific framework. https://journal.iag.ir/article_235950.html Political elites are influential actors in shaping the political, economic, and social trajectories of nations, particularly in the sensitive and complex contexts of post-conflict societies. These elites possess the power and resources necessary to guide national reconciliation processes, implement reforms, and promote societal integration among divided communities. In the post-conflict phase, societies often face deep divisions, social fragmentation, and a sense of distrust among social groups. These divisions, if left unaddressed, can undermine societal integration efforts, reignite cycles of violence, and hinder national unity. Here, the role of political elites becomes pivotal and crucial in achieving integration. They are responsible for crafting inclusive public policies that strengthen national unity, ensuring the representation of different social groups in governance structures, and rebuilding institutions. This article examines the impact of political elites on achieving societal integration, using a descriptive methodology. The main objective is to clarify the roles played by political elites in achieving societal integration during the post-conflict phase to create social stability and achieve development and prosperity for societies. https://journal.iag.ir/article_238098.html Geopolitical processes are closely linked to the search for ideological platforms that justify their prospects and effectiveness. Liberalism and socialism, from the very beginning of their emergence, aimed to spread throughout the world. Despite the irreconcilable opposition, they identified a number of common ideological principles. Each of these ideologies considered its political theory to be the only correct one, bringing society closer to the realization of the thousand-year dream of people to create a society of freedom, equality, fraternity and justice. In their vision of the future of humankind, these two ideologies showed a desire for the widespread introduction of new, radically different from previous, value systems. At the same time, it was implied that their value guidelines are, of course, ideal and are called upon to ensure a happy future for all the people of the planet. This demonstrated their focus on world domination. Along with many positive shifts in global development, these ideologies also led to many negative consequences for the peoples of a number of states. https://journal.iag.ir/article_238466.html Cyber terrorism has become a pervasive global menace that transcends national borders, threatening critical infrastructure, national security, and international peace. This reality has been amplified by the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence, and digital interconnectivity, which provide new avenues for terrorist organizations to operate anonymously and effectively. There have been numerous legal, policy, and regulatory efforts at both domestic and international levels to address the problem; however, cyberterrorism persists with increasing sophistication and frequency. This study employs content analysis to examine international, regional, and national legal frameworks aimed at countering cyber terrorism. It reviews 96 peer-reviewed scholarly publications, treaties, resolutions, and policy reports to identify strengths, weaknesses, and gaps in current legal regimes. Particular attention is given to the United Nations’ counter-terrorism initiatives, the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime, and regional efforts within the European Union (EU), Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Through comparative analysis of Iraq and Malaysia, the paper demonstrates how differing geopolitical, legal, and institutional contexts shape the effectiveness of cyberterrorism responses. The findings underscore the urgent need for a unified global definition of cyber terrorism, improved multilateral cooperation, and harmonization of legal standards to enhance global cybersecurity resilience. This article contributes to geopolitical scholarship by situating cyber terrorism within the broader dynamics of international law, security governance, and state power competition in cyberspace. https://journal.iag.ir/article_241618.html مناطق مرزی ایران و عراق به‌رغم برخورداری از پیوندهای عمیق تاریخی، تمدنی و فرهنگی–اجتماعی و همچنین اشتراک در فرصت‌ها و تهدیدهای امنیتی و اقتصادی، در جریان جنگ هشت‌ساله عراق علیه ایران خسارات گسترده‌ای را تجربه کرده‌اند. در شرایط کنونی، مفهوم «پارادیپلماسی» به‌عنوان رویکردی نوین در جغرافیای سیاسی، با تأکید بر نقش‌آفرینی حکومت‌های محلی و پیونددهی منافع مشترک امنیتی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی–فرهنگی، به یکی از ابزارهای مهم توسعه و همگرایی مناطق مرزی تبدیل شده است. بر این اساس، فرضیه پژوهش حاضر آن است که به دلیل پیوستگی‌های تاریخی–تمدنی، فرهنگی–اجتماعی، وجود منافع اقتصادی مشترک و همچنین تهدیدات امنیتی مشابه، مناطق مرزی ایران و عراق واجد ظرفیت‌های لازم برای پیاده‌سازی الگوی پارادیپلماسی هستند و می‌توان از این رویکرد برای ارتقای روابط میان منطقه آزاد اروند در ایران و مناطق آزاد استان بصره عراق، به‌ویژه منطقه آزاد خورالزبیر، بهره گرفت. روش پژوهش مورد استفاده، روش توصیفی-تحلیلی مبتی بر داده های کتابخانه ای است. به هر حال https://journal.iag.ir/article_243149.html با آغاز هزاره سوم، دیپلماسی علمی به حوزه‌ای کلیدی در پیوند علم، فناوری و سیاست خارجی تبدیل شده است. با این حال، رویکردهای نظری مسلط آن با چالش‌هایی تبیینی مواجه هستند. چارچوب ارائه‌شده توسط انجمن سلطنتی (2010)، به دلیل آرمان‌گرایی، ابهام مفهومی و غفلت از ابعاد قدرت‌محور و رقابتی علم، کارآمدی لازم را ندارد. رویکرد گلاکمن و همکاران (2017) نیز علیرغم توجه به منافع ملی و جهانی، در پاسخ به تحولات معاصر —از جمله گذار از علم‌محوری به فناوری‌محوری، ظهور قدرت‌های نوظهور علمی در جنوب جهانی و امنیتی‌شدن فناوری‌های مبتنی بر هوش مصنوعی و محاسبات کوانتومی در بستر تحولات ژئوپلیتیک جدید — ناکارآمد مانده است. این پژوهش با مرور تحلیلی ادبیات علمی کتابخانه‌ای و اسنادی با رویکرد توصیفی-انتقادی، یک چارچوب‌نظری پیشنهاد می‌کند که مؤلفه‌های استفاده از علم و پژوهش به مثابه «قدرت بعنوان سازه ژئوپلیتیکی»، گذار به فناوری‌محوری در عرصه‌های مختلف دیپلماسی علمی به‌عنوان «سازه فناورانه ژئوپلیتیکی» و در نهایت چندگانگی حکمرانی علمی در قالب «سازه شبکه‌ای-تعادلی» با شمولیت ذی‌نفعان متنوع جهانی را یکپارچه می‌کند. تلفیق این سازه‌ها نه‌تنها شکاف تبیینی چارچوب‌های پیشین را پر می‌کند، بلکه درک عمل‌گرایانه‌ای از دیپلماسی علمی را برای ذی‌نفعان متعدد در نظم ژئوپلیتیک معاصر فراهم می‌آورد. https://journal.iag.ir/article_243150.html رشد اقتصادی از مهم‌ترین شاخص‌های توسعه و رفاه است و عواملی مانند سرمایه‌گذاری، نوآوری فناوری، بهره‌وری، تجارت بین‌الملل، ثبات سیاسی و کیفیت نهادها بر آن تأثیر می‌گذارند. این پژوهش با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته (GMM) تأثیر شاخص تنش میان ایالات متحده و چین را بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای با درآمد پایین، متوسط و بالا در دوره‌ی 1993 تا 2024 بررسی می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد افزایش تنش‌های آمریکا و چین اثر منفی و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی همه گروه‌های درآمدی دارد. این اثر در کشورهای با درآمد بالا شدیدتر است، زیرا اقتصادهای پیشرفته به زنجیره‌های تأمین جهانی، تجارت و جریان سرمایه وابستگی بیشتری دارند. در کشورهای با درآمد متوسط نیز اثر منفی قابل‌توجهی مشاهده می‌شود که بیانگر آسیب‌پذیری رشد آنها در برابر شوک‌های ژئوپلیتیکی است، در حالی که در کشورهای با درآمد پایین این اثر ضعیف‌تر اما معنادار است. افزون بر این، رتبه‌بندی کشورها بر اساس کشش محاسبه‌شده نشان می‌دهد که در گروه درآمد بالا، کره جنوبی، آلمان و ژاپن به ترتیب با کشش 78/0-، 74/0- و 71/0- بیشترین آسیب‌پذیری را دارند؛ در گروه درآمد متوسط، ویتنام، مالزی و تایلند با کشش 92/0-، 88/0- و 85/0- آسیب‌پذیرترین هستند؛ و در گروه درآمد پایین، اتیوپی و اوگاندا با کشش 48/0- و 45/0- بیشترین تأثیر منفی را تجربه می‌کنند. این یافته‌ها تأکید می‌کند که وابستگی تجاری به آمریکا و چین و میزان جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، مهم‌ترین عوامل تعیین‌کننده تفاوت در شدت آسیب‌پذیری کشورها هستند. https://journal.iag.ir/article_243151.html This study advances the argument that democratization is best understood as the outcome of a reciprocal interaction between political culture, institutional arrangements, and geopolitical contexts, rather than as an outcome of fixed cultural or religious determinants. Conceptualizing political culture as a dynamic system of orientations shaped by historical experience, spatial location, and regional security environments, the paper integrates political culture theory with geopolitical and political–geographical analysis. Drawing on comparative illustrations from Eastern Europe, the MENA region, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, the study demonstrates that similar cultural or religious backgrounds generate divergent democratic trajectories depending on institutional mediation and exposure to external geopolitical pressures. The findings directly challenge cultural determinist explanations particularly those attributing democratic failure to Islam or Arab culture by showing that religion operates through political institutions and geopolitical constraints rather than as an independent causal variable. This geopolitically grounded framework offers a coherent explanation for democratic divergence and contributes to comparative political theory by reconceptualizing political culture as contingent, adaptive, and context-dependent. https://journal.iag.ir/article_243152.html In the contemporary international system, power dynamics are increasingly defined by geo-economic logic and maritime connectivity rather than purely territorial control. Despite Iran's pivotal location linking Eurasia and the Indian Ocean, the country faces marginalization from major regional transport corridors and energy pipelines due to ideological geopolitical approaches and security-centric policies. This study employs a descriptive-analytical method using library data to examine the disparity between Iran's territorial potential and its practical performance in the global arena. Findings indicate that sustaining national power requires a paradigm shift from a land-centric mentality to a maritime-oriented geo-economic strategy. This involves prioritizing the development of coastal zones, particularly the Makran region and Chabahar Port, as engines of growth and integrating into regional corridors to avoid becoming a "geopolitical black hole." Furthermore, the research argues that maritime policy should focus on securing sea lanes through economic interdependence and confidence-building rather than military posturing. Adopting this framework enables Iran to transition from the periphery to the core of the global "space of flows," ensuring sustainable development, enhanced connectivity, and national security through economic integration. https://journal.iag.ir/article_243153.html India-Pakistan relations are among the spaces where territory and conflict are intertwined. Today, a tendency in the field of international conflict resolution has come to exist that some lasting conflicts could not be resolved quickly and definitely. In such cases, conflict management approaches that are primarily focused on preventing escalation of tensions seem to be more useful. But some conflicts, such as the Kashmir one, are very challenging even for these approaches. The article aims to show how the India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir and other issues has been managed after their nuclear weapon tests. Integrating constructivism into a three-dimensional model of conflict management, this article focuses on explaining the actions taken at the five critical points of the post-1998 India-Pakistan conflict. Findings of the article show that the mentioned measures in three dimensions of compellence, negotiation and third party intervention together have been effective in de-escalating the conflict between the two countries during the period under review. https://journal.iag.ir/article_243154.html The Middle East is considered one of the most influential regions in the global balance of power, and its strategic location makes it of paramount importance to international interests. The Arab region has gained significant importance and a prominent position on the agendas of vital interests for major powers, as well as emerging economies like China and India, due to its global trade and large energy consumption. Therefore, this study seeks to clarify the strategic importance of energy in the Middle East in general, and the Arab region in particular, subject to geopolitical, economic, and security factors. The region is also highly sensitive to major global political shifts, whether related to the rise or fall of superpowers. This is demonstrated by the study through a discussion of the wars and conflicts the world has witnessed and continues to witness in the struggle for control of this vital resource. The struggle of major powers over it and their competition for access to its sources has driven every country that possesses this resource, especially weaker nations, to become a target. https://journal.iag.ir/article_243155.html مسئله اصلی که در این مقاله مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرد، تأثیر حکمرانی محیط زیست بر امنیت ملی ایران است. به منظور مقایسه دقیق‌تر موضوع مورد بررسی، بر سیاست‌های زیست‌محیطی دولت‌های محمود احمدی‌نژاد و حسن روحانی تمرکز کرده‌ایم و می‌کوشیم حکمرانی محیط زیست‌ در این دو دولت و تأثیرات آن‌ها بر امنیت ملی ایران را با هم مقایسه کنیم. سوال اصلی این است که حکمرانی محیط زیست در دولت‌های محمود احمدی نژاد و حسن روحانی چه تاثیراتی بر امنیت ملی ایران داشته است؟ در پاسخ به این سوال، چنین فرض می‌‌شود که با وجود اصول و سیاست‌های متفاوت، حکمرانی محیط زیست‌ در دولت‌های احمدی‌نژاد و روحانی منجر به امنیتی‌سازی مسائل زیست‌محیطی و به خطر افتادن امنیت ملی ایران شد. برای تبیین دقیق‌تر موضوع از نظریه امنیتی شدن مکتب کپنهاگ استفاده می‌کنیم تا نشان دهیم که چگونه محیط زیست با سیاست‌های نادرست جنبه امنیتی پیدا کرده است. اطلاعات و داده های این پژوهش از اسناد و منابع دست اول به صورت کتابخانه ای گردآوری شده است و در تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از ترکیب روش‌های کمی و کیفی استفاده می‌شود. https://journal.iag.ir/article_244261.html مقاله حاضر به بررسی پیامدهای آتی ناشی از سدسازی کشور ترکیه بر مرزهای شمال غربی ایران می‌پردازد. با استفاده از روش تحلیل سناریو و بر اساس دو عدم قطعیت کلیدی "شدت کاهش منابع آب" و "سطح همکاری یا منازعه"، چهار سناریوی احتمالی شامل همکاری پایدار، تنش آبی، سازگاری دوجانبه و بحران شدید طراحی و تحلیل شدند. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که سناریوی "همکاری پایدار" بهترین نتیجه را به همراه دارد، در حالی که "بحران شدید" بدترین شرایط را نمایان می‌سازد. نتایج تحقیق مؤید آن است که کاهش دسترسی به منابع آب مشترک می‌تواند به مهاجرت روستاییان، کاهش تولیدات کشاورزی، ناآرامی‌های اجتماعی و تخریب محیط‌زیست منجر شود. دیپلماسی آبی و تقویت همکاری‌های بین‌المللی به عنوان کلیدی‌ترین عوامل در پیشگیری از بحران‌های آتی و مدیریت پایدار منابع آبی مناطق مرزی شناسایی شدند. تایج تحقیق مؤید آن است که کاهش دسترسی به منابع آب مشترک می‌تواند به مهاجرت روستاییان، کاهش تولیدات کشاورزی، ناآرامی‌های اجتماعی و تخریب محیط‌زیست منجر شود. دیپلماسی آبی و تقویت همکاری‌های بین‌المللی به عنوان کلیدی‌ترین عوامل در پیشگیری از بحران‌های آتی و مدیریت پایدار منابع آبی مناطق مرزی شناسایی شدند. https://journal.iag.ir/article_245896.html استان سیستان و بلوچستان، به دلیل موقعیت ژئوپولیتیکی آن و همچنین همجواری با مناطق بحرانی پاکستان و افغانستان، در معرض تهدید گروهک‌های تروریستی قرار دارد. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی عوامل کلیدی امنیت مرزی، از ۱۱ متغیر اقتصادی، اجتماعی، قضائی و دفاعی بهره برده و مدلی کمی مبتنی بر رگرسیون لجستیک فازی ارائه کرده است. تحلیل داده‌ها نشان می‌دهد که هرچه فشار جمعیتی و بیکاری بیشتر باشد، توان استان در خنثی‌سازی عملیات‌های تروریستی کاهش می‌یابد. در میان عوامل بررسی‌شده، این دو متغیر بیشترین اثر تضعیف‌کننده را بر عملکرد مقابله‌ای داشته‌اند؛ نتیجه‌ای که با واقعیت ژئوپولیتیکی استان می‌تواند هم‌خوانی داشته باشد، زیرا ترکیب جمعیت جوان، بیکار و حاشیه‌نشین در مناطق مرزی باعث افزایش احتمال نفوذ و فعالیت شبکه‌های تروریستی می‌شود. در مقابل، اعتبارات دفاعی و عملکرد نهادهای امنیتی بیشترین اثر مثبت بر کاهش تهدیدات دارند؛ در یک جغرافیای صعب‌العبور و پرریسک مانند سیستان و بلوچستان، نتایج نشان می‌دهد تقویت ظرفیت‌های نهادی و افزایش اعتبارات دفاعی و انتظامی، همراه با هماهنگی میان دستگاه‌های امنیتی و قضایی، نقش مهمی در افزایش موفقیت مقابله با تهدیدات تروریستی دارد. https://journal.iag.ir/article_245897.html Abstract U.S. foreign policy toward Iran has undergone significant transformations, shaped by shifting strategic interests, ideological divergences, historical developments, and evolving power dynamics. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, bilateral relations have oscillated between confrontation and limited cooperation, epitomized by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, the relationship remains fraught with tension. In light of Iran’s growing regional influence, the rise of new global powers, the transition from unipolarity to multipolarity, and the U.S.’s increasing energy independence, Washington’s approach to Iran and the broader Middle East has continued to evolve. Despite stark rhetorical and tactical differences between the Trump and Biden administrations following the JCPOA, this study identifies underlying continuities in U.S. policy that persist beyond partisan divides. The central research question guiding this analysis is: To what extent has U.S. policy toward Iran changed or remained consistent in the post-JCPOA era؟ Employing a deductive content analysis framework, this study systematically examines key speeches by Presidents Trump and Biden through 2024, evaluating them across thematic categories such as diplomacy, nuclear negotiations, and regional containment. The findings reveal that while core U.S. strategic concerns regarding Iran have remained consistent across administrations, there are notable variations in tactical approaches—particularly in engagement strategies, nuclear issue management, and efforts to counter Iran’s regional influence. https://journal.iag.ir/article_247603.html در دهه اخیر، همگرایی شتابان فناوری‌های نوظهور با حوزه‌های راهبردی، صورت‌بندی‌های کلاسیک قدرت را با چالشی ساختاری مواجه ساخته است. دگرگونی‌های برخاسته از عصر دیجیتال با تغییر در ریتم زمان‌مندی و فضا‌مندی کنش‌های نظامی، ضرورت بازخوانی مفاهیم بنیادین بازدارندگی و معماری امنیتی را برجسته کرده‌ است. در این بستر، انقلاب صنعتی چهارم نه یک تحول تدریجی، بلکه نقطه عطفی در بازآرایی منطق کنش نظامی-دفاعی و بازتعریف جایگاه فناوری در معادلات ژئوپلیتیکی تلقی می‌شود. در پژوهش حاضر این فرضیه مورد بررسی و تأیید قرار گرفت که انقلاب صنعتی چهارم چونان رخدادی پارادایمی، گفتمان و سیاستگذاری سنتی نظامی-دفاعی را به چالش کشیده و در قامت نیرویی دگرگون‌ساز، در حال جانمایی طرح ژئوپلتیک فناورانه بجای ژئوپلتیک سنتی است. این تحول با جابه‌جایی زیرساخت‌های قدرت از حوزه سرزمینی به عرصه فناورانه در حال انجام است. پژوهش پیش‌رو از منظر هدف کاربردی و توسعه‌ای و از جهت ماهیت و روش نیز توصیفی-تحلیلی است. در کنار منابع کتابخانه‌ای، از ابزار مصاحبه (با 10 نفر از نخبگان) نیز استفاده شده است. نظریه کرونوپلتیک با نقطه کانونی زمان به عنوان چهارچوب نظری پژوهش استفاده شده است. این نظریه با محوریت ایده‌ «سیاست زمان» بر آن است که قدرت سیاسی، نه‌تنها از طریق کنترل مکان بلکه از رهگذر مدیریت زمان نیز اعمال می‌شود. در چنین چارچوبی، انقلاب صنعتی چهارم را می‌توان به‌مثابه لحظه‌ای کرونوپلیتیکی تحلیل کرد. تحولات مدنظر در قالب چهار موضوع مورد پژوهش قرار گرفته است: تغییر مدل بازدارندگی؛ استفاده از سایر مدل‌های نظامی؛ افزایش تمسک به اقدامات قابل‌انکار و در نهایت افزایش احتمال استفاده از حملات سایبری. https://journal.iag.ir/article_247604.html This study investigates the impact of United States of America-led trade wars on the implementation of dual alignment by four key ASEAN Member States (AMS)—Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam—with BRICS, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). Located at the strategic crossroads of the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN faces growing pressure to balance major power blocs while safeguarding national and regional interests. Using a neorealist theoretical framework and qualitative research methods, this study reveals that the dual alignment strategy represents a rational and pragmatic choice for the four AMS amid intensifying geopolitical rivalries. The imposition of new US tariffs has altered these dynamics by reducing the relative benefits of IPEF membership while heightening the pressure associated with BRICS engagement. Despite these challenges, the four AMS continue to uphold dual alignment, maintaining constructive ties with BRICS while simultaneously engaging in bilateral negotiations with the US to mitigate the tariff impacts and preserve policy autonomy. https://journal.iag.ir/article_248084.html This study develops a proximity index to measure Indonesia’s alignment with the United States and China. The index synthesizes economic and military dimensions to render proximity operational. The analysis traces Indonesia’s position from 2014 to 2024 by plotting shifts in economic reliance on and military partnership with both great powers. The study observed that, despite the pandemic and intensified geopolitical tensions, Indonesia has been able to strike an equilibrated stance: keeping economic affinity with China while sustaining military ties with the United States. The evidence suggests that Indonesia’s proximity to the US and China has remained somewhat balanced, with economic relations steadily deepening toward China. This balancing act aligns with Indonesia’s "free and active" foreign policy. The research offers a quantitative approach that remains relatively uncommon in IR. The proposed proximity index can serve as a practical instrument for policymakers to monitor and fine-tune diplomatic strategies amid the US-China rivalry. https://journal.iag.ir/article_250326.html تغییرات اقلیمی در خاورمیانه از طریق افزایش دما، کاهش بارش، تشدید خشکسالی، افت منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی و تخریب زمین‌های کشاورزی، امنیت معیشتی جوامع وابسته به آب را تضعیف کرده و زمینه جابه‌جایی‌های داخلی و فرامرزی را فراهم می‌سازد. این پژوهش با تکیه بر اکولوژی (بوم‌شناسی سیاسی)، مهاجرت اقلیمی را نتیجه زنجیره‌ای از فشارهای زیست‌محیطی، ضعف حکمرانی آب، نابرابری دسترسی به منابع، فرسایش معیشت کشاورزی و رقابت‌های ژئوپلیتیکی بر سر منابع مشترک می‌داند. در الگوی تحلیلی پژوهش، فشارهای اقلیمی شامل افزایش دما، خشکسالی، کاهش بارش، افت جریان رودخانه‌ها و گسترش طوفان‌های گردوغبار به‌عنوان متغیر مستقل؛ آسیب‌پذیری معیشتی، ضعف حکمرانی آب، جنگ و نابرابری در دسترسی به منابع به‌عنوان متغیرهای میانجی و تعدیل‌کننده و مهاجرت روستا- شهر، آوارگی داخلی و مهاجرت فرامرزی به‌عنوان پیامد مهاجرتی در نظر گرفته شده‌اند. رابطه میان این متغیرها با استفاده از مقایسه ساختاریافته موارد ایران، عراق و سوریه و ردیابی سازوکارهای انتقال فشار اقلیمی به بحران معیشتی و تصمیم به مهاجرت ارزیابی شده است. به‌دلیل ناهمگونی داده‌های آماری کشورهای مورد مطالعه، پژوهش مدعی محاسبه ضریب همبستگی آماری نیست، بلکه شدت رابطه را بر اساس تقدم زمانی فشار اقلیمی، وجود شواهد مربوط به اختلال در آب و معیشت و ثبت پیامد مهاجرتی به‌صورت ضعیف، متوسط یا قوی ارزیابی می‌کند. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد این رابطه در عراق قوی و در ایران و سوریه متوسط تا قوی است؛ با این توضیح که در سوریه جنگ و ناامنی و در ایران و عراق ضعف حکمرانی آب و عوامل فرامرزی، نقش مهمی در تشدید اثر فشارهای اقلیمی بر مهاجرت داشته‌اند. https://journal.iag.ir/article_252794.html Abstract The relationship between Georgia and the West has grown increasingly strained. Georgian officials are under sanctions, while the Trump administration has remained largely silent. This article analyzes the U-turn in Georgia’s foreign policy trajectory from three perspectives: structural, regional, and elite/individual. Examining these variables allows observers to step back and view the broader picture. The article argues that China’s rise and its growing interest in the South Caucasus have created an opportunity for the Georgian government to diversify its foreign policy. At the regional level, the conflict in Ukraine has profoundly affected Georgia’s path toward the European Union, as the advent of mutual accusations has become a watershed event. Finally, the role of Bidzina Ivanishvili has been paramount in shaping Georgia’s strategic choices. The three-layered approach is thus proposed as a framework for understanding deviations in the country’s traditional foreign policy trajectory since independence. https://journal.iag.ir/article_230982.html From Iran’s perspective, China represents the most significant strategic partner in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite consistent political, geo-economic, and geo-strategic cooperation over the past decade, the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA has led China to adopt a more cautious approach toward Iran. Although bilateral ties have grown closer over the last four decades, particularly in economic domains, geopolitical relations have remained asymmetrical—favoring China's national interests. China does not perceive Iran as a strategic actor of equal geopolitical weight due to its broader global and regional ambitions. The 25-year strategic cooperation agreement signed in 2021 aimed to deepen bilateral ties, but has yet to produce tangible results, partly due to U.S. pressure. This research uses a descriptive-analytical method and is of a fundamental nature. It aims to examine the capacities, challenges, and obstacles shaping Iran–China relations, offering solutions to rebalance this asymmetry. The study also investigates the strategic role of China in shaping regional policies and explores the evolution of Iran’s geopolitical engagement in the Asia-Pacific realm. Data collection is based on library resources, academic papers, books, and online materials.The research concludes that Iran must engage more strategically and symmetrically with China, aligning bilateral ties with mutual geopolitical interests. Strengthening such cooperation can help Iran leverage its strategic capacities more effectively in light of ongoing regional and global shifts. https://journal.iag.ir/article_231196.html In recent decades, geopolitical analysis has been shaped by binary, state-centered narratives that perpetuate conflict, exclusion, and hierarchical power structures. Both traditional and critical geopolitical discourses have often relied on oppositional categories like state/non-state, East/West, and friend/enemy, which oversimplify complex realities and reinforce hegemonic frameworks. This paper seeks to move beyond these epistemological limitations by proposing a meta-anti-geopolitical (or post-geopolitical) framework. It examines how dismantling binary divisions and embracing multidimensional, decolonial, and anti-hegemonic perspectives can foster more inclusive and emancipatory geopolitical narratives, reflecting the fluid, contested, and networked character of contemporary political spaces. In this Adopting, a qualitative, interpretive methodology based on critical discourse analysis and conceptual deconstruction, the study analyzes key geopolitical texts, policy discourses, and cases of spatial resistance. Drawing on post-structuralist and decolonial theories, the paper critiques dominant geopolitical imaginaries and highlights the agency of marginalized actors, proposing a relational, multi-scalar understanding of power, space, and identity. https://journal.iag.ir/article_224535.html The conflict between India and Pakistan represents a critical issue in South Asian geopolitics, with profound implications for human security. While national security has traditionally dominated discussions, this study identifies a significant gap in understanding how military tensions affect the well-being of civilians. The research explores how the ongoing India-Pakistan proxy war, particularly post-2014, has exacerbated human security challenges. These include infringements on human rights, hindered economic progress, and strained diplomatic ties. By emphasizing the socio-economic impact of these tensions, this study aims to provide a framework for addressing conflict through a human-centric approach. The perpetual cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation may result in persistent infringements of human rights, hindered economic progress, and strain diplomatic ties. In the absence of a resolution, the current disagreement may easily escalate into a drawn-out war. This situation has the potential to solidify differences, prolong violence, and significantly weaken stability in the region. https://journal.iag.ir/article_222998.html The principle of the permanent sovereignty of states over natural resources, including water resources, has become one of the foundations of international law since the 1950s, and has been emphasized in numerous international instruments, such as Article 2(1) of the Charter of Economic Rights and Duties of States (1974). In its classical interpretation, this principle pertains to the absolute and exclusive authority of states to exploit natural resources within their territorial domain, such that no foreign state may claim precedence or intervene in this exploitation. However, in cases where unilateral exploitation of shared water resources results in the violation of the principles of sustainable development, causes transboundary harm, or threatens international peace and security, the right of sovereignty is accordingly restricted, and the obligations of states are elevated beyond customary duties to the level of peremptory norms or erga omnes obligations. This article, focusing on the conflict between the exercise of upstream states' sovereignty over water resources and the necessity of observing the principle of sustainable development in relation to downstream states, seeks to revisit conceptual developments in international water law. Within this framework, international instruments and judicial precedents of the International Court of Justice are examined. The article further analyzes the concept of "water security" as an emerging doctrine, along with notions such as "water aggression" and "anticipatory self-defense." In the final section, Iran's recent water and legal challenges with its neighbors over the Helmand and Harirud rivers and Turkey's Anatolia Project, are critically assessed. https://journal.iag.ir/article_223082.html Global politics and international relations today are experiencing the most turbulent period in recent history. Amidst the whirlwind of divergent global development trends, the independent interests of the so-called "Global South" countries, advocating for the development of multipolarity and multi-format approaches in international relations and the world economy, are becoming increasingly distinct. BRICS is emerging as one of such key institutions of the developing multipolarity. Türkiye, a country situated at the geopolitical crossroads of Europe and Asia, being one of the leaders of the Turkic world, seeks to enhance its influence in international affairs through participation in new formats offered by non-Western countries. Türkiye's interest in cooperating within the BRICS framework is rapidly becoming more evident. While the temptation to unite all those opposed to Western hegemony under "the same roof" remains strong, both for BRICS member-states and for Türkiye itself, full membership of the latter in the union would bring both benefits and costs, which necessitates distinguishing between the desired and the real. https://journal.iag.ir/article_225534.html The objective of this study is to critically examine the Comprehensive Strategic Agreement signed between Iran and Russia on December 17, 2024. The research employs a dual-methodological approach, integrating the framework of critical geopolitics with Fairclough’s critical discourse analysis (CDA). The CDA methodology is applied in detail at three analytical levels: structures, forces, and context. At the structural level, the agreement’s text is dissected to identify Russia as a security-guaranteeing object, with the guarantee of Iran’s geopolitical security serving as a floating signifier. This security is positioned in opposition to the counter-securitization discourses advanced by the United States and Israel, which are constructed as threatening geopolitical objects. These actors are shown to employ complex strategies to consolidate pressure on Iran. The analysis of forces focuses on Russia’s strategic partnership with Iran, which is pursued through two main actions: first, by placing Iran on a non-securitized agenda, and second, by creating distance and imposing its own geopolitical perspective. At the contextual level, the study examines how the U.S. seeks to minimize Iran’s benefits from the agreement by linking it to the nuclear dossier, thereby influencing the broader geopolitical context. The findings reveal that, despite the agreement’s intentions, Russia is unable to persuade other geopolitical actors to establish robust, hardware-based relations with Iran. As a result, Russia cannot logically guarantee Iran’s geopolitical security, highlighting the limitations of the agreement within the current geopolitical landscape. https://journal.iag.ir/article_225535.html Today, migrations are classified into different categories in terms of type and nature. While Iran has been among the main regions receiving immigrants since the Aryans immigrated 4500 years ago, Afghanistan has been an epicenter of sending immigrants since the establishment of the Durrani dynasty. So, Iran has always been a main destination for Afghan immigrants. As the latest statistic shows about 4.5 million Afghan immigrants live in Iran. The question is which features of Iran, particularly in the age of the Islamic Republic, have made it the primary destination for Afghan immigrants? In response, some features can be addressed such as special geographical conditions, socio-cultural cognateness, economic situation, and the Islamic republic regime`s immigration policies. Taking advantage of Ravenstein and Evert lee`s “push and pull” theory as a theoretical framework, the paper conducts a descriptive–analytical narration built on an investigation of history and statistics. The data is collected in a library-based method. https://journal.iag.ir/article_225536.html Due to the anarchic nature of international relations and the era of uncertainty, the right to self- defense is impossible without endogenous security and indigenous self-help. Force and power are still necessary and integral parts of international relations. It means the ruling of the logic of power, not the power of the logic in the global politics. Anyway, Self-defense and self-help are two sides of the same coin. In such a system, outsourcing security is a grave strategic mistake. Accordingly, Security under no circumstances can be negotiable, let alone outsourcing to others, otherwise it will lead to security dependency and, as a result, lack of political independence and violation of national sovereignty by intervening powers. Therefore, there is no other way to resist against strategy of bandwagoning than internal/external balancing policy. The main question of this article is what kind of deterrence can guarantee national security against external threats?, The hypothesis is that military deterrence will be vulnerable and unreliable without intelligence deterrence, more specifically the intelligence deterrence by deniable is complementary and protective necessity to the military deterrence by punishment. It is argued that independent countries that oppose the existing order in the international system cannot and should not place their national security solely on the basis of military deterrence by punishment, but their deterrence should be spill over to intelligence deterrence by denial. By the way, it seems deterrence and balancing policy in the framework of coercive diplomacy determines the fate of the strategic conflict between the two orders namely resistance-based order and dominance-centric order. Needless to say Resistance has active/offensive orientation in nature, not passive/ defensive approach. Because of that, we do not have legitimate or illegitimate resistance. Righteousness is a source of inspiration for resistance. In fact, attention to deterrence and coercion is rooted in a belief in resistance. https://journal.iag.ir/article_246232.html Political participation among the members of a political government is one of the most essential factors influencing efficiency and sustainability in such systems. In this regard, women as half of the workforce contributing in macro decision making can play an important role in political system development and efficiency. Thus, most countries to be in the direction of political development through different policies are trying to strengthen the women political participation in political decision making and power structure. Nevertheless, in Arab countries, women yet do not possess a suitable position in the field of politics and ministry arena. Thus, this study is seeking to find the answer to the question of what are the most influential factors in the limited number of women ministers in Persian Gulf Arab countries. To answer the research question, Delphi and Shannon techniques ware used and the researchers compiled the viewpoints of ten political experts in Arab countries. The findings revealed that the most important factor for the limited number of women ministers in such countries is "political” issues and then “cultural”, “social”, “economic”, and “personal” respectfully. https://journal.iag.ir/article_229718.html This article evaluates the policy of deradicalization of terrorist groups in Indonesia by using a mix method approach to explore the message structure in terrorism regulation related to the idea of peace incentives. Through a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this study analyzes how current terrorism regulations communicate and implement peace incentives. The findings of the study show that despite deradicalization efforts, terrorism activities in Indonesia are still ongoing. This is closely related to the lack of institutionalization of the idea of comprehensive peace incentives for families and terrorism networks. The lack of integration of peace incentives in deradicalization programs causes the approach applied to be incremental and partial, not touching the root of the problem holistically. This research highlights the importance of developing more inclusive deradicalization policies, which not only focus on terrorist individuals, but also pay attention to and engage their families and networks. Thus, the deradicalization program can run more effectively and sustainably, support the achievement of a more stable peace and significantly reduce terrorism activities in Indonesia. https://journal.iag.ir/article_230983.html Although the Iraqi government declared its military campaign against ISIS concluded in 2017, and the Pentagon officially acknowledged this in 2019, the United States has maintained its military presence in Iraq. This study examines the underlying motives behind the continued U.S. involvement in Iraq under the justification of "fighting ISIS." Adopting a critical perspective on national interest, it explores the intersection between U.S. strategic objectives and the agendas of powerful economic actors, while situating this within the broader geopolitical landscape. Employing qualitative methods, the study analyzes secondary data from journal article, books, online media, news sources, and official government reports. The evaluation of U.S. national interest focuses on three key dimensions: security, economy, and politics. In terms of security, the U.S. has struggled to establish long-term stability in Iraq or to enhance regional safety, particularly in light of intensifying rivalries with regional powers such as Iran and Turkey. Economically, while the U.S. invested significant taxpayer funds in the conflict, the primary beneficiaries have been major oil and defense corporations, reflecting the entanglement between foreign policy and corporate interests. Politically, U.S. influence in Iraq has waned, challenged by both growing domestic opposition and the expanding geopolitical footprints of competing actors, notably Iran, Russia, and China. Given these findings, the study argues that the United States must reassess whether its ongoing military engagement in Iraq aligns with its broader strategic interests amidst the shifting geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East. https://journal.iag.ir/article_246233.html How was the political order formed in Iran after the 1979 revolution? The dominant narrative emphasizes that this order arose from the Islamic nature of the Iranian revolution and was the most natural order possible. In contrast, there is another narrative that considers the order to be the result of the power struggle in the post-revolutionary space. By designing a simple theoretical model, the present article analyzes the role of the ideological field, political and social events, and the actions of rival groups in the formation of the post-revolutionary political order, and therefore attempts to present a new reading of the second narrative. Based on the findings of this research, in the ideological (space) field after the revolution, there was a relative balance of power and no group could dominate its ideas alone and at once. According to this research, each event led to the formation of a coalition of supporters and opponents, and the conflict between these two coalitions played a fundamental role in the formation of the post-revolutionary political order. Also, these coalitions were not fixed; that is, they changed with each event. Meanwhile, the jurisprudential Islamists, through temporary alliances with other rivals; institution-building - such as the establishment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Revolutionary Council, and the Islamic Republic Party - and ultimately closeness to Imam Khomeini, gradually transformed their ideas - such as the Islamic Republic, the principle of Velayat al-Faqih, and the fundamentalist Islamization of Iranian society - into the hard core of the post-revolutionary Iranian political order, while the ideological differences between the leftists (Marxists) and the nationalists were so fundamental that they could not even have common ideas. Although at the beginning of the revolution, the nationalists and Islamic liberals collaborated with the jurisprudential Islamists, they did not succeed in introducing any ideas into the hard core of the political order. On the other hand, the leftists achieved success in one case; namely, they succeeded in transforming the idea of ​​fighting imperialism and anti-Westernism into part of the hard core of the political order. https://journal.iag.ir/article_232757.html Economic sanctions, a widely used tool in international diplomacy, significantly influence global dynamics, particularly in response to political and economic threats. In light of ongoing geopolitical shifts, these sanctions not only have notable economic and political effects on target countries but also present critical legal and jurisprudential challenges concerning state sovereignty and human rights. This paper offers a fresh analysis of the legal and jurisprudential underpinnings of economic sanctions in the context of these geopolitical changes, exploring the multifaceted nature of sanctions from both Islamic jurisprudential and international legal perspectives. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the legitimacy of sanctions from both a legal and jurisprudential standpoint, considering the evolving geopolitical environment and recent advancements in international law. This research follows a descriptive-analytical methodology, utilizing a broad range of legal, jurisprudential, and international resources. The paper particularly emphasizes the impact of sanctions on human rights and the challenges of aligning Islamic jurisprudential principles with international legal frameworks governing sanctions. The research highlights key conflicts and challenges in reconciling legal and jurisprudential frameworks for sanctions, stressing the necessity to revisit international legal standards, especially in regard to human rights and the sovereignty of affected states in the face of geopolitical transformations. Ultimately, the paper proposes the creation of new legal frameworks that incorporate both geopolitical transformations and jurisprudential principles. https://journal.iag.ir/article_230984.html Russia's policy in the Middle East has changed in the years following the Ukrainian war, and therefore the main purpose of this article is to analyze how this transformation and its consequences have occurred, and to answer the question of how Russia's policy has changed during this period? The author claims that during this period we are witnessing a gradual shift from a political and security strategy to a primarily economic strategy, and in fact, the game based on the geopolitical element has turned into a geoeconomic role-playing game. Although the context for such a situation began with the beginning of the Ukrainian war in 2022, the fall of the Assad regime has consolidated this situation. To discuss the hypothesis, the article uses the method of qualitative analysis of the hypothesis variables, by studying strategic documents on Russian national security and foreign policy, statements by government officials, the course of developments, and some economic statistics. Therefore, it first deals with the features of Russia's Middle East policy since the beginning of the Syrian civil war. The Ukrainian war and its consequences for Russia's Middle East policy will be discussed in the second section. Finally, it concludes by examining the major developments in the Middle East since the Ukrainian war. The main finding of this article is that Russia has not had a fundamental, long-term policy in the region and that, in general, the Kremlin’s strategy has been reactive to events and conditioned on seizing opportunities and avoiding problems for its regional interests. Given the strategic turn in its Middle East policy, it will not seriously intervene in future developments in the region. Perhaps the most important manifestation of this new game can be seen in Russia’s positions towards the Israel-Iran war. https://journal.iag.ir/article_246234.html This research analyzes the role of the common identity factor in shaping Turkey-Azerbaijan strategic relations, examined within the framework of the pre and post 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war context. The formation of this common identity factor is grounded and deeply rooted in ethnic, linguistic, cultural, and historical affinities shared by the two countries. The central argument is that the notion of a shared identity – embodied in the ideological and value-based formulation of “one nation, two states” – has significantly contributed to the evolution of bilateral alliance-building between the two countries. Both before and after the 2020 war, the factor of common identity has consistently served as one of the foundational pillars of strategic cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan, both prior to and following the 2020 conflict. Moreover, the study highlights how this identity narrative has been extended beyond bilateral ties to support broader Turkic integration initiatives involving both Turkish-Azerbaijani ties and relations with other Turkic-speaking states. https://journal.iag.ir/article_252862.html This study examines the Indo-Pakistani rivalry as a complex and ongoing conflict within the international system, originating primarily after the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 and the resulting border and sovereignty disputes, most notably the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. The dimensions of the conflict are not limited to the political and military spheres, but extend to religious, cultural, and historical factors that contribute to shaping national identities and reinforcing mutual distrust. Furthermore, the possession of nuclear capabilities by both countries has heightened the risks associated with any confrontation, making the conflict a significant factor in South Asian security and international stability, As question How do cultural, political, and strategic factors interact to perpetuate rivalry in the Indian subcontinent, and what are its implications for regional and international security? Main Findings: The study indicates that the continuation of the conflict is linked to the overlap of border issues with competing identities and strategic interests, and that diplomatic efforts have failed to achieve a sustainable settlement due to the unresolved core issues. Therefore, achieving peace requires a comprehensive approach that integrates cultural and strategic analysis. https://journal.iag.ir/article_252863.html Thesis’s of control and hegemony were drawn in the thoughts and minds of decision-makers in the state. All that comes to strategic thinking is the permanence of the state’s survival. Wars and crises often stem from control and the annexation of nearby lands in order to ensure interest, and the degree of their density is crucial or vital. Therefore, Tellurocracy has been considered a complication that affects the approach of the strategic decision-maker. In ensuring interests as a basis for the theories of the vital field in strategic thinking, as stated by the writer Alexander Dugin, who expressed it in the model of Russia after the Russian-Ukrainian war and the opening of land lines, whether through economic initiatives or military movements, by ensuring access to warm waters first and the growing Russian role as a revisionist force. In the international system. In this The research relied on induction to analyze the general situation of Russia's role in the international system after 2023 and its complex roles, The depth of the land extension is the vitality that Russia or any country trying to be a power in the system has sought. Whoever has land control can control a region or an entire continent. Whoever understands Tellurocracy can understand geopolitical movement or control. in addition to understand concepts related to the topic of Tellurocracy, leading to a forward-looking approach to develop future possibilities for Tellurocracy in light of the complexities of the international system. https://journal.iag.ir/article_252866.html The South Caucasus has long been a site of rivalry among regional and global powers. Although the region appears geographically and politically distant from China, Beijing has significantly increased its presence there since launching the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 and is now striving to strengthen its position as an actor in the South Caucasus. This chapter asks: in light of the global BRI project, what is China's foreign policy in the South Caucasus, and what regional challenges does it confront? We hypothesize that the South Caucasus is important to China for both its intra-regional economic and geopolitical potential, as well as for serving as a crucial link between China and the European Union. Employing the neoclassical framework, we tested our hypothesis through quantitative content analysis of official documents, scholarly texts, reports, and news relating to China's foreign policy and the South Caucasus. It seems that by the third decade of the paradigm, the nature and locus of competition and antagonism in the region have also undergone significant changes. https://journal.iag.ir/article_252871.html The expansion of information and communication technologies has brought international relations into a new arena in which traditional geopolitical borders are broken down and digital borders replace them. research aims to explore how information and communication technologies redefine geopolitical borders and security in the Middle East. It is hypothesized that this redefinition results from a triple linkage: the securitization of the digital realm (Copenhagen School), structural violence in asymmetric access to data and power (Galtung), and symbolic violence in the imposition of dominant meanings and representations (Bourdieu). The operational mechanism of this influence works through the control of data flows, algorithmic surveillance, and platform management, which replace physical borders with digital ones and prioritize individual security over state security. In this process, on one hand, the state, relying on cyber sovereignty and the securitization of data, seeks to reproduce its own borders of influence. On the other hand, the individual, using encryption technologies, social networks, and virtual activism, draws security borders independent of the state. This tension removes the geopolitics of influence from the exclusive domain of states and turns it into a contested arena between state and individual actors, which can lead both to the production of security and to the creation of insecurity. The study adopts a qualitative research approach and employs a descriptive-analytical method, drawing on library and documentary sources. The analysis is grounded in an integrated theoretical framework that brings together the Copenhagen School of securitization, Galtung’s theory of violence, and Bourdieu’s concept of symbolic violence. https://journal.iag.ir/article_252872.html Rentier state dynamics have enabled PGCC governments to elevate citizens’ welfare through sustained reliance on oil revenues, reflected in SPI levels that consistently exceed the global average. Yet existing scholarship remains predominantly backward-looking, overlooking the structural vulnerabilities embedded in rent-dependent economies that may threaten the long-term stability of welfare gains. This study addresses this gap by adopting a forward-looking lens, forecasting the five-year trajectory of SPI to evaluate the future resilience and sustainability of the PGCC’s rentier welfare model. The aim of this study is to examine and forecast the Social Progress Index as a representative of citizens’ welfare for the years 2023–2027 in the member countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. The independent and predictive indicators of the study were selected separately for each country from among the World Bank development indicators using the EDR feature-selection method. The SPI index was forecast for the years 2023 to 2027 using the XGBoost machine-learning method. The forecasting model of the present study, with a MAPE of less than 2 percent for the test data, indicates high accuracy in predicting future values. Examining the predicted SPI trends in the six countries shows that the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia will experience an almost stable trend over the next five years. It is predicted that Oman and Qatar will observe a fluctuating SPI trend. These results suggest that welfare indicators in PGCC countries have reached a stable level and will not experience further growth over the next five years. https://journal.iag.ir/article_252873.html چین و هند، دو قدرت نوظهور در دنیا، با رشد اقتصادی سریع و توسعه زیرساخت‌های راهبردی به رقبای مهم در عرصه‌های منطقه‌ای و جهانی تبدیل شده‌اند. چین از طریق پروژه‌های عظیم راهبردی مانند ابتکار کمربند و راه چین و شبکه‌ای از کریدورهای اقتصادی و هند نیز از طریق کریدورهای آی‌مک و شمال-جنوب به‌دنبال مهار یکدیگر و حفظ و گسترش نفوذ ژئوپلیتیکی و اقتصادی خود در دنیا هستند. این پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از روش‌ کیفی با رویکرد تحلیلی-تبیینی تهیه شده و مسئله اصلی پژوهش، بررسی آثار این کریدورها بر رقابت ژئوپلیتیکی میان آنها در پرتو نظریه ژئوپلیتیک انتقادی می‌باشد. داده‌ها از منابع کتابخانه‌ای و اسناد سیاست خارجی جمع‌آوری و براساس چارچوب نظری ژئوپلیتیک انتقادی تحلیل شده‌اند. فرض پژوهش این است که این کریدورها سبب افزایش رقابت ژئوپلیتیکی و نفوذ منطقه‌ای و تشدید منازعات قدرت و هویت میان آنها شده است. نتایج تحقیق از منظر ژئوپلیتیک انتقادی نشان می‌دهد که چین و هند، در راستای رقابت ژئوپلیتیکی و نفوذ منطقه‌ای با بهره‌گرفتن از کریدورهای منطقه‌ای و جهانی در دو مسیر عمده و در جهت بازنمایی منارعات قدرت و هویت قدم برداشته‌اند.