Mathematical Modeling for Measuring the External Security; Case Study: I.R. Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Author

- Assistant Professor of National Security, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran

Abstract

Measuring the external security of a country to determine its security in an international system and compare it is the main concern of politicians. Accordingly, we  witness different efforts for measuring and quantizing security level of different countries but none of these efforts can show the real situation of the security level of them. At the same time, these studies   reflect the Western county’s security and use them for measuring I.R. Iran external security level is not possible and reasonable. So due to special situation of Iran, we can’t use international indices to measure its external security. For this reason and because of the position of Iran in Middle East, this research has been started with the lack of a model for measuring the external security of the I.R. Iran as the problem of research. The objective of this research is to extract the indices to measure the external security of the I.R. Iran, design a model by which its contribution the level of external security of the I.R. Iran could be measured and measure the status quo of the external security of the I.R. Iran.
The subject and research methodology is in a situation that lacks  hypotheses because of effort for modeling and the methodology of research is qualitative methodology and systematic analysis for extraction the indices of external security of the I.R. Iran which are related to the soft elements and case- field methodology for designing the model for measuring security. International Security Studies (ISS) has changed and diversified in many ways since 1945. This research provides the first intellectual indices of the development of the subject in the world. It sets out the driving forces that shaped debates in ISS, shows what makes ISS a single conversation across its diversity, and gives an authoritative account of debates on all the main topics within ISS. This is an unparalleled survey of the literature and institutions of ISS that will be an invaluable guide for all students and scholars of ISS, whether traditionalist, “New agenda” or critical. The results of this research show that although determining dimensions, indices and indexes of threats helps analyzers make decisions, we should not imagine that it is a static model. The results of this research, also, show the security level is measurable and according following equation: y1= ε1+ η1 λ y11+ η2 λ y21+ η3 λ y31+ η4 λ y4 , the external security index of the I.R. of the Iran in first six months of 2009 at scale 0-100 was 56.6.
 
 

Keywords


Volume 7, Issue 21
March 2011
Pages 168-201
  • Receive Date: 07 May 2010
  • Revise Date: 28 July 2010
  • Accept Date: 18 October 2010
  • First Publish Date: 21 March 2011