Geopolitics Quarterly

Geopolitics Quarterly

Investigating the Future Consequences of Turkey's Dam Construction on the Country's Northwestern Borders

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Samira Valizade Haji Dehi 1
Alireza Najafi 2
Mohammad Hemmati 3
1 PhD Student in Political Geography, Yadegar Imam Khomeini University of Sciences and Research, Tehran, Iran.
2 Faculty Member, Amin University of Law Enforcement Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
3 Faculty Member of Islamic Azad University, Yadegar Imam Khomeini Branch, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/igq.2026.577687.2168
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Background and Objectives
Turkey's dam construction activities, especially within shared river basins with Iran, have significantly impacted the transboundary water resources in Iran's northwestern regions. This study aims to analyze scenarios and assess the geopolitical consequences of Turkey's dam projects on these areas. Its objective is to identify and examine the economic, environmental, social, political, and security effects of Turkey's dam construction on Iran's northwestern borders.
Methodology
This research employs a qualitative approach using scenario-based planning. Data collection was conducted through document analysis, interviews with experts, and the Delphi method. Specialized panels were convened to identify key components and drivers and to develop scenarios.
Findings
The research identified 30 key factors through in-depth expert interviews, which were subsequently narrowed down to 16 factors in specialized panels. These factors were categorized and prioritized across economic, socio-cultural, political, security, and environmental dimensions. Key issues include reduced agricultural water resources, forced migrations, security threats, and heightened diplomatic tensions.
Results
The results indicate that reduced inflows into Iran and the level of cooperation or conflict between Iran and Turkey are the most critical factors in scenario planning. Various scenarios are presented, including "sustainable cooperation," "limited crisis," "severe crisis," and "water crisis." Practical and geopolitical recommendations are proposed for managing these crises, with the sustainable cooperation scenario identified as the optimal approach for managing shared water resources.
Keywords
Turkey&rsquo
s Dam Construction, Transboundary Water Resources, Scenario Planning, Water Crisis, Regional Cooperation, Environmental Impacts
Subjects
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Geopolitics Quarterly
Volume 22, Issue 3
Summer 2026
Pages 159-188

  • Receive Date 24 February 2026
  • Revise Date 07 May 2026
  • Accept Date 25 May 2026