Document Type : Original Article
M.A. in Political Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
Associate Professor Political Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
Associate Professor Political Science and International Relations, Azad University, Qom, Iran
Associate Professor Political Science and International Relations, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran
Political stability has always been one of the most important goals and results of political systems. In other words, the sustainable development and security of any country will be achieved under political stability. Hence, the emergence of examples such as civil war, revolution, insurgency, coup, terrorist operations, economic imbalance, social imbalance, etc. is a sign of political instability, the course of which is different in different countries. It is highly dependent on the country's geography, historical transition and political economy. A fragile country is the result of political instability. Fragile states are states that have low degrees in the Charter of Fragility (exercise of authority, provision of services, and legitimacy), which itself includes three types of weak, failed and collapsed. Absolute separation of fragile states from each other is difficult and so far no clear definition has been provided for them, and also assessing the fragility of states is a complex and multidimensional matter.
The destabilizing factors in Turkey depend, in short, on three historical periods: 1) the period before the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, 2) the period of the Kemalist one-party system, and 3) the period of the rise of the Guardian state in action. Also, from the perspective of political geography in the contemporary history of Turkey, three mistakes have occurred in its political structure, which have been the source of many destabilizing factors, which are: 1) Kemalist citizenship law: "Secular Sunni Muslim Turk" 2) Choosing a situation instead of a position from the time of Ataturk to before the AKP's coming to power, which is contrary to national security 3) Violation of zero tension with neighbors and improper use of the region's geopolitical code in the beginning of the Syrian crisis. The effects of the era and the consequences of these mistakes have caused the Republic of Turkey, despite its significant economic growth and increasing geopolitical weight in the region and the world before the Syrian crisis, conflicts and tensions. In addition, since 2014, Turkey, through its coercive action in the region, has led to insecurity, greater instability, and reduced geopolitical prestige in the region and the world. And for this reason, in the ranking of the fragility index of governments, in 2018, it has gained 82 points, which puts this country in the group of weak governments. Accordingly, the present study seeks to answer the following questions:
1) What are the examples of destabilizing factors affecting the fragility of Turkey?
2) What are the most influential destabilizing variables on the fragility of the Turkish government?
This research is methodologically descriptive-analytic. The data gathering procedure is based on library and panel of experts' findings. Thus, the most important variables and indicators of destabilization in which Turkey has instances of instability were prepared and classified according to the Schwartz model, STEEPVASL. Then a closed-ended questionnaire with multiple-choice ranking scale designed to rank the variables and had provided to the panel of expert on Turkish issues.
Findings show that examples of Turkish instability in the Schwartz classification are: social (decrease in growth rate, increase in asylum and displacement, increase in middle class exodus, increase in elite flight, increase in ethnic-religious divide), technical (low share of top indigenous technologies in GDP), economical (economic fragility, rising military spending), environmental (ecosystem vitality, environmental health, spatial inequality and hydro-political tensions with neighbors), political (changes in government apparatus in order to consolidation authoritarianism itself, financial corruption, sanction of economic and institutions of government, AKP's confrontation with the Gulenist movement, political, economic and logistical support of foreign actors to opposition groups), vales (increase of power and influence of the Diyanet organization), army (territory affected by conflict), security (widespread group grievance, unsuccessful military coup 2016, extensive terrorist operations), legal (suppression and trial of dissidents, increase in political prisoners, violation of freedom of expression, increasing refugee and refugee issues).
In the next step, based on the opinions of Turkish experts, the effectiveness of the calculated variables in Turkey was ranked. Findings show that increasing ethnic-religious divide, economic fragility, widespread group grievances, spatial inequality, increasing asylum and displacement, political, economic and logistical support of foreign actors from opposition groups, territory affected by conflict, hydro-political tensions with neighbors, financial corruption, and the AKP's confrontation with the Gulenist movement have the greatest impact on the Turkish government's fragility