Geopolitics Quarterly

Geopolitics Quarterly

Identifying and explaining key drivers influencing Israel's national security strategy in Middle East

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Allameh Tabatabaie University
2 PhD in Political Science from Ferdowsi University and Postdoctoral Candidate in International Relations from Allameh Tabatabaei University
10.22034/igq.2026.547983.2092
Abstract
The West Asian region is one of the most important strategic regions in the world due to its geopolitical location, and one of the common denominators of the threat to the Islamic world and the Middle East is Israel, which has created a security bottleneck in the region and is considered an important axis of conflict in the Middle East security complex. The main goal of this research is to identify and explain the key drivers affecting Israel's national security strategy in West Asia. The basic research question is formulated as follows: What are the most important key drivers affecting the Zionist regime's national security strategy in the West Asia region in the time horizon of 2035? To answer the research question, a futures-oriented approach using the cross-effects analysis method has been used, which examines the interaction of the network of variables and determines the position of each variable based on its relationship with the network of variables. The research tool is a questionnaire, and the opinions of experts and specialists in this field are the research data. The entified in the group of bimodal variables (one risk variable, three variables as target variables), five variables are in the group of influenced variables, and one variable is in the group of independent (or leverage) variables. Finally, this system has a regulatory variable called "Creating a security platform and equipping military programs and purchasing from the West" and it is the only factor that has the greatest impact on other variables.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 23 February 2026

  • Receive Date 14 November 2025
  • Revise Date 27 January 2026
  • Accept Date 23 February 2026