Geopolitics Quarterly

Geopolitics Quarterly

Contesting the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific in the Era of BRICS Expansion and Trade Wars

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta
10.22034/igq.2026.550199.2097
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of United States of America-led trade wars on the implementation of dual alignment by four key ASEAN Member States (AMS)—Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam—with BRICS, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). Located at the strategic crossroads of the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN faces growing pressure to balance major power blocs while safeguarding national and regional interests. Using a neorealist theoretical framework and qualitative research methods, this study reveals that the dual alignment strategy represents a rational and pragmatic choice for the four AMS amid intensifying geopolitical rivalries. The imposition of new US tariffs has altered these dynamics by reducing the relative benefits of IPEF membership while heightening the pressure associated with BRICS engagement. Despite these challenges, the four AMS continue to uphold dual alignment, maintaining constructive ties with BRICS while simultaneously engaging in bilateral negotiations with the US to mitigate the tariff impacts and preserve policy autonomy.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 20 July 2026

  • Receive Date 08 October 2025
  • Revise Date 20 July 2026
  • Accept Date 20 July 2026