نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Extended Abstract
Background and Objectives
Turkey's dam construction activities, especially within shared river basins with Iran, have significantly impacted the transboundary water resources in Iran's northwestern regions. This study aims to analyze scenarios and assess the geopolitical consequences of Turkey's dam projects on these areas. Its objective is to identify and examine the economic, environmental, social, political, and security effects of Turkey's dam construction on Iran's northwestern borders.
Methodology
This research employs a qualitative approach using scenario-based planning. Data collection was conducted through document analysis, interviews with experts, and the Delphi method. Specialized panels were convened to identify key components and drivers and to develop scenarios.
Findings
The research identified 30 key factors through in-depth expert interviews, which were subsequently narrowed down to 16 factors in specialized panels. These factors were categorized and prioritized across economic, socio-cultural, political, security, and environmental dimensions. Key issues include reduced agricultural water resources, forced migrations, security threats, and heightened diplomatic tensions.
Results
The results indicate that reduced inflows into Iran and the level of cooperation or conflict between Iran and Turkey are the most critical factors in scenario planning. Various scenarios are presented, including "sustainable cooperation," "limited crisis," "severe crisis," and "water crisis." Practical and geopolitical recommendations are proposed for managing these crises, with the sustainable cooperation scenario identified as the optimal approach for managing shared water resources.
کلیدواژهها English
