Sistan and Baluchestan Province, due to its geopolitical location and proximity to the conflict-prone areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, is exposed to threats from terrorist groups. This study, aiming to identify the key factors of border security, utilized 11 economic, social, judicial, and defense variables and proposed a quantitative model based on fuzzy logistic regression. Data analysis indicates that as population pressure and unemployment rise, the province’s capacity to thwart terrorist operations declines. Among the factors examined, these two variables had the strongest weakening effect on counterterrorism performance—a finding consistent with the province’s geopolitical reality, as the combination of a young, unemployed, and marginalized population in border areas increases the likelihood of infiltration and terrorist network activity. Conversely, defense budgets and the performance of security institutions have the most positive effect on reducing threats. In a challenging and high-risk geography like Sistan and Baluchestan, the results suggest that strengthening institutional capacity and increasing defense and law-enforcement funding, together with improved coordination among security and judicial agencies, plays an important role in enhancing the success of countering terrorist threats.