Caught Between Giants: Is Indonesia Tilting Towards China or Clinging to the US?

Anwar, Ahmad; Ismira, Andi; Sinaga, Tinggi Marojahan

doi:10.22034/igq.2026.550755.2096

Caught Between Giants: Is Indonesia Tilting Towards China or Clinging to the US?

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

Ahmad Anwar ¹

Andi Ismira ²

Tinggi Marojahan Sinaga ²

¹ Department of Political Science, Universitas Sains Al Qur’an, Wonosobo, Indonesia

² Department of International Relations, Universitas Sulawesi Barat, Majene, Indonesia

10.22034/igq.2026.550755.2096

چکیده

This study develops a proximity index to measure Indonesia’s alignment with the United States and China. The index synthesizes economic and military dimensions to render proximity operational. The analysis traces Indonesia’s position from 2014 to 2024 by plotting shifts in economic reliance on and military partnership with both great powers. The study observed that, despite the pandemic and intensified geopolitical tensions, Indonesia has been able to strike an equilibrated stance: keeping economic affinity with China while sustaining military ties with the United States. The evidence suggests that Indonesia’s proximity to the US and China has remained somewhat balanced, with economic relations steadily deepening toward China. This balancing act aligns with Indonesia’s "free and active" foreign policy. The research offers a quantitative approach that remains relatively uncommon in IR. The proposed proximity index can serve as a practical instrument for policymakers to monitor and fine-tune diplomatic strategies amid the US-China rivalry.

کلیدواژه‌ها

US-China rivalry

foreign policy

composite index

hedging

موضوعات