رویکرد تجارت تسلیحاتی روسیه در منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا: جنبه‌های اقتصادی و استراتژیک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، عضو هیأت علمی پژوهشکده مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

این مقاله درصدد ارزیابی اهداف روسیه از توسعه تجارت تسلیحاتی با منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا و پیامدهای رویکرد روسیه در این زمینه برای این منطقه است. این مقاله استدلال می‌کند که اهداف روسیه را می‌توان به دو دسته اهداف اقتصادی و استراتژیک تقسیم‌بندی کرد. اگرچه در بازه زمانی کوتاه‌مدت، پیامدهای این سیاست برای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا در قالب تشدید رقابت تسلیحاتی و افزایش احتمال وقوع جنگ‌های نیابتی نمود پیدا می‌کند، در بلندمدت این روند می‌تواند به عاملی مثبت در راستای تثبیت موازنه قدرت در منطقه میان متحدان آمریکا و دولت‌های ضدآمریکایی تبدیل شود. در این مقاله، از روش کیفی بر مبنای توصیف و تحلیل روندها بهره گرفته شده است. اگرچه در بحث از فروش تسلیحات روسی، داده‌های آماری نیز مورد توجه و بررسی قرار گرفته، ماهیت پژوهش و تحلیل نهایی همچنان کیفی است. رویکرد پژوهشی این مقاله، رویکرد استقرایی است و بر اساس آن، تلاش شده از داده‌های جمع‌آوری شده به منظور دستیابی به یک الگوی مناسب برای تحلیل اهداف و پیامدهای رویکرد تجارت تسلیحاتی روسیه در خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا بهره‌گیری شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Russian Arms Trade Approach in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Economic and Strategic Aspects

نویسنده [English]

  • Hamidreza Azizi
Assistant Professor, Institute for Regional Studies, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

This article tries to analyse the goals Russia pursues by trying to develop arms trade with the MENA region and the implications of this approach for the region. The article argues that Russia’s goals can be divided into two general categories of economic and strategic objectives. Although in the short term, the implications of this approach for MENA is fomenting arms race in the region and the increased possibility of proxy wars, this process can in the long term turn into a contributing factor in stabilizing the balance of power in the region between the US allies and anti-American governments. A qualitative method based on the description and analysis of trends has been adopted in this article. Although statistical data on Russia’s arms sales is taken into consideration and analysed here as well, the nature of the study and the basis of final analysis remain qualitative. An inductive approach will has been used in this article and it is tried to take advantage of the collected data in order to achieve a proper pattern for analyzing the objectives and implications of Russia’s arms trade approach in MENA.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Russia
  • MENA
  • Arms trade
  • Arms Race
  • Proxy wars
Aljazeera (2017), “Saudi king, Putin Agree Deals on Historic Russia Trip”, 6/10/2017,
available at: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/saudi-king-putin-sign-deals-
historic-russia-trip-171005102100641.html (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Azizi, Hamidreza (2017), “Will US Missile Strike Shift Iran-Russia Partnership in
Syria?”, Al-Monitor, available at: https://www.al-
monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/iran-russia-syria-partnership-us-missile-strike-
impact.html (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Blank, Stephen & Edward Levitzky (2015), “Geostrategic Aims of the Russian Arms
Trade in East Asia and the Middle East”, Defence Studies, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 63-80
- Blank, Stephen (2017), “The Foundations of Russian Policy in the Middle East”, The
Jamestown Foundation, available at: https://jamestown.org/program/foundations-russian-
policy-middle-east/ (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Bodner, Matthew (2017), “Russia's Middle East Power Play”, Defense News, 18/2/2017,
available at: https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/idex/2017/02/18/russia-s-
middle-east-power-play/ (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Conolly, Richard & Cecilie Sendstad (2017), “Russia’s Role as an Arms Exporter”,
Chatham House, available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/russias-role-
arms-exporter-strategic-and-economic-importance-arms-exports-russia (accessed on:
20/11/2017)
- Detsch, Jack (2017), “US Missile Defense Sale to Saudis Seen as Effort to Thwart
Russia’, Al-Monitor, 9/10/2017, available at: https://www.al-
monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/us-missile-defense-sale-saudi-arabia-thaad-thwart-
russia.html (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Donya-ye Eghtesad (2017), “The US is Worried over the Increase of Russian Arms in the
Region”, 10/7/2017, available at: http://www.donya-e-eqtesad.com/fa/tiny/news-3296045
(accessed on: 10/12/2017).
- Gall, Carlotta & Andrew Higgins (2017), “Turkey Signs Russian Missile Deal, pivoting
from NATO”, The New York Times, 12/9/2017, available at:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/world/europe/turkey-russia-missile-deal.html
(accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Ghavam, Abdolali (2008), “Russia’s Strategic Culture”, IRAS, Vol. 3. No. 3.
- Iran Daily (2017), “Iran, Russia Boosting Strategic Military Cooperation in Syria:
Shamkhani”, 6/6/2017, available at: http://www.iran-daily.com/News/194255.html
(accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- IRNA (2016), “Libya Wants to Purchase Russian Arms”, 11/29/2016, available at:
http://www.irna.ir/fa/News/82326357 (accessed on: 10/12/2017).
- ISNA (2017), “NATO: Using the Russian S-400 by Turkey will have Consequences”,
10/27/2017, available at: https://www.isna.ir/news/96080502594 (accessed on:
10/12/2017).
- Karsh, Efraim (1986), “Influence through Arms Supplies: The Soviet Experience in the
Middle East”, Conflict Quarterly, Vol. 6, No. 1
 
102 Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume: 14, No 4, Winter 2019 ____________________________
- Kazemi, Hojjat (2017), “Identity Uprisings, Fragile States and Geopolitical Crises of the
Middle East”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 146-172.
- Koolaee, Elaheh & Afifeh Abedi (2018), “Geopolitical Components of Russia’s Foreign
Policy”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 1-25.
- Kozhanov, Nikolay (2016), “Arms Exports Add to Russia’s Tools of Influence in Middle
East”, Chatham House, 20/7/2016, available at:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/arms-exports-add-russia-s-tools-
influence-middle-east (accessed on: 20/11/2017).
- Mojtahedzadeh, Pirooz & Ahmad Rashidinejad (2011), “Geopolitical Analysis of
Russia’s Foreign Policy toward Iran’s Nuclear Program (2000-2008)”, Geopolitics
Quarterly, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 1-36.
- Mossalanejad, Abbas (2018), “The Middle East Security and Donald Trump’s Grand
Strategy”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 20-52.
- Nouri, Alireza (2010), “The Nature of Great Power Idea in Russian Foreign Policy”,
Central Asia and the Caucasus Studies, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 133-162.
- Parto, Amin (2014), “The Place of Arms Trade in Russian Foreign Policy after Yeltsin”,
Politics (Tarbiat Modarres University Journal), Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 19-28.
- Pashapoor, Hojatollah (2018), “The Causes of South West Asia Tensions and the
Presence of World Powers in the Region; with Emphasis of Geopolitics of Energy”,
Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 178-209.
- Petro, Nikolai N. (2011), Russian Foreign Policy, 2000-2011: From Nation-State to
Global Risk Sharing, PECOB’s Papers Series, No. 12
- Roth, Andrew (2016), “Iran Announces Delivery of Russian S-300 Missile Defense
System”, The Washington Post, 10/5/2016, available at:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-announces-delivery-of-russian-s-300-
missile-defense-system/2016/05/10/944afa2e-16ae-11e6-971a-
dadf9ab18869_story.html?utm_term=.89799e578d09 (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Sakwa, Richard (2004), Putin’s Second Term, The Royal Institute of International
Affairs: Russian and Eurasian Program
- Salacanin, Stasa (2017), “Weapons Sales: The Key to Russia's Middle East Agenda”, The
New Arab, 13/3/2017, available at:
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2017/3/13/weapons-sales-the-key-to-russias-
middle-east-agenda (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Schmidt, Rachel (1991), “Global Arms Exports to Iraq, 1960-1990”, Rand Publication
Series, N-3248-USDP
- Schoen, John W. (2017), “US Sanctions Have Taken a Big Bite out of Russia's
Economy”, CNBC, 25/7/2017, available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/25/us-
sanctions-have-taken-a-big-bite-out-of-russias-economy.html (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- SIPRI (2017), SIPRI Yearbook 2017: Armaments, Disarmament and International
Security (Summary), available at: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2017 (accessed on:
10/11/2017)
- Spiegel (2016), “How Syria Became the New Global War”, 11/10/2016, available at:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/syria-war-became-conflict-between-usa-and-
russia-and-iran-a-1115681.html (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
 
___________________ Russian Arms Trade Approach in the Middle East and ...103
- Sputnik News (2017), “US Reacts with 'Anger and Fears' to Turkey Buying Russian S-
400 Systems”, 22/7/2017, available at:
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201707271055917062-us-turkey-s-400-russia/ (accessed
on: 20/11/2017)
- Sputnik Persian (2017), “Russia Sends Arms to Libya”, 8/15/2017, available at:
https://sptnkne.ws/gb6z (accessed on: 10/12/2017).
- Stewart, Caterina (2011), “Russia Accuses NATO of 'Expanding' UN Libya Resolution”,
Independent, 4/7/2011, available at:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/russia-accuses-nato-of-expanding-un-
libya-resolution-2306996.html (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Suchkov, Maxim A. (2015), “New Russian Arms Deals Could Shake up Mideast
Market”, Al-Monitor, 25/8/2015, available at: https://www.al-
monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/08/russian-arms-supply-middle-east.html (accessed on:
20/11/2017)
- Trenin, Dmitri (2010), “The Modernization of Russia’s Foreign Policy”, Carnegie
Endowment, available at: http://carnegie.ru/2010/08/02/modernization-of-russia-s-
foreign-policy-pub-41322 (accessed on: 26/7/2011)
- Uhler, Walter C. (1999), “Russia’s Defense Industry and the Arms Trade”, The Journal of
Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 193-203
- Ulansky, Elena (2017), “Sanctions - Impact on Average Russian Life”, The Huffington
Post, available at: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/elena-ulansky/sanctions-impact-on-
avera_b_7027940.html (accessed on: 20/11/2017)
- Valizadeh, Akbar, Simin Shirazi Moogooei & Hamidreza Azizi (2015), “The Impacts of
2014 Ukraine Crisis on Russia-US Relations”, Central Eurasian Studies, Vol. 8, No. 1,
pp. 149-171.
- Wezeman, Siemon T. (2017), “China, Russia and the Shifting Landscape of Arms Sales”,
SIPRI, 5/7/2017, available at: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-
backgrounder/2017/china-russia-and-shifting-landscape-arms-sales (accessed on:
10/11/2017)
- Zisk, Kimberly Marten (1998), Weapons, Culture, and Self-Interest: Soviet Defense
Managers in the New Russia, New York: Columbia University Press
- РИА Новости (2017), “Аравийский прорыв: Россия теснит США на рынке оружия
Ближнего Востока”, 9/10/2017, Доступны на:
https://ria.ru/defense_safety/20171009/1506490550.html (20/11/2017)
- ТАСС (2017), “США и РФ Остаются Крупнейшими Экспортерами Вооружений”,
20/2/2017, Доступны на: http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/4037036
(20/11/2017)
- Эксперт Online (2016), “Россия усиливает позиции на рынке вооружений Ближнего
Востока”, Доступны на: http://expert.ru/2016/08/11/oruzhie/ (20/11/2017)