تحولات اخیر جهان عرب، موازنه قوا و گروه بندی های منطقه ای جدید در خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار روابط بین المل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران

2 استاد روابط بین المل، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار روابط بینالمل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران، تهران، ایران

4 دانش آموخته روابط بین المل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران

چکیده

پایان جنگ سرد و وقوع حوادثی نظیرواقعه 11 سپتامبر 2001 و خیزش‌‌های اخیر جهان عرب موجب تشدید رقابت میان قدرتهای منطقه​ای خاورمیانه نظیر ایران، عربستان سعودی و ترکیه به​عنوان بازیگران مستقل در چهارچوب استراتژی اتحاد و ائتلاف با قدرتهای منطقه​ای گردیده است. این پژوهش به​دنبال بررسی تأثیر خیزش‌‌های اخیر جهان عرب بر موازنه قوا میان قدرتهای منطقه​ای خاورمیانه با استفاده از مفاهیم و مفروضات نظریه ‌‌‌واقع‌گرایی نوکلاسیک (تهاجمی و تدافعی) و روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و همچنین روش تحلیل محتوا می‌باشد. یافته‌‌های این پژوهش نشان می​دهد که خیزش‌‌های اخیر جهان عرب موجب تشدید رقابت میان قدرتهای منطقه​ای خاورمیانه در شکل فرقه​گرایی یا تقابل جریانات شیعه-سنی گردیده است. در یک​سو محور شیعی ایران، عراق، سوریه و حزب​الله لبنان با پوشش حمایتی روسیه و در سوی دیگر محور سنی عربستان سعودی، امارات، قطر و ترکیه با پوشش حمایتی آمریکا قرار دارند. البته با برکناری محمد مرسی از قدرت و به حاشیه رانده شدن جریان اخوان​المسلمین در مصر، شاهد شکاف در محور سنی و جدا شدن ترکیه و قطر از این محور و نزدیک شدن مواضع ترکیه به ایران و روسیه می​باشیم. توافقات میان ایران، روسیه و ترکیه در اجلاس آستانه و تهران را می‌توان در این راستا تحلیل نمود.   

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Recent Upheavals in the Arab World, Regional Balance of Power and New Grouping in the Middle East

نویسندگان [English]

  • Keyhan Barzegar 1
  • Abdolali Ghavam 2
  • Mehdi Zakeryan 3
  • Seyed Hafez Mousav 4
1 Associate Professor of International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Full Professor of International Relations, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
4 Ph.D Graduated of International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract 
Introduction
Considering this Fact that 11 September, 2001 incident had enhanced Iran regional status in the Middle East, and other regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey strived to limit Iran Regional power. Arab world Upheavals provided an opportunity for them to decrease in Iran regional power in the context of Sectarianism based on balance of power. This balance of power has been become more complicated after the involvement of Russia Federation and United States.
Methodology
Using descriptive–analytic and modeling method, we considered the impact of recent Arab World Upheavals on regional balance of power in the Middle East region.
Findings

The Origin of Arab World Upheavals had been the authoritarian regimes in middle east region
Following the recent Arab World Upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt, they lost the arising opportunity due to the failure in passing nation–state process in the past years;
The recent Arab World Upheavals had intensified regional Balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East region;
Turkey and Qatar enhanced their interactions with Russia and Iran as a result of their gap with Saudi Arabia;
The United States had different foreign policy toward Middle East balance of power during Obama and Trump presidency;
Russia had active role in Syria and Iraq following the recent Arab World Upheavals.

Discussion
After the 11 September 2001 incident Saudi Arabia and Turkey was not able to limit Iran enhanced regional power as a result of US Invasion to Iraq and creating new Shiite regime. The recent Arab World Upheavals provide an opportunity for regional Sunni power such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey to control the Iran increased regional power through the sectarianism based on balance of power supported by the US new Republican Government. But they could not realized their objectives and contain Iran arising power in Middle East. As far, Turkey and Qatar as the follower of moderate Islam increased in their interactions with Russia and Iran.
Conclusion
The regional balance of power among Middle East powers following the recent Arab World Upheavals will not have a winner. It seems, it should be managed by regional or infra regional powers through their increased interactions in the region.


کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Arab world upheavals
  • Islamism
  • Democracy
  • sectarianism
  • Regional balance of power
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