بررسی جایگاه ژئوپلیتیک آب در توسعه و امنیت پایدار مناطق مرزی براساس رویکرد سیستم‌های پویا

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد عمران، عضو هیأت علمی دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)

2 کارشناس ارشد مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

در دیدگاه نوین، افزایش امنیت صرفاً با افزایش قدرت نظامی تحقق نمی­یابد بلکه افزایش امنیت ملی هر کشور در گرو افزایش قدرت ملی در تمامی حوزه­های اقتصادی، سیاسی، اجتماعی و نظامی است. ژئوپلیتیک انرژی و بویژه ژئوپلیتیک آب می­تواند از مهمترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر امنیت ملی ایران در این خصوص باشد. با توجه به موقعیت جغرافیایی و ژئوپلیتیکی ایران به​عنوان یکی از بزرگترین کشورها به‌لحاظ طولانی بودن مرزهای آبی و خاکی و  تعداد همسایگان و همچنین وجود رودخانه و دریا در بیش از 50 درصد از نوار مرزی، قابلیت­های زیادی را برای توسعه­ همه جانبه و پایدار مناطق مرزی آن به​وجود آورده است که توجه به آن باعث ارتقاء شاخص­های اقتصادی، اجتماعی، سیاسی و امنیتی در این مناطق خواهد شد. در این تحقیق سعی شده است ضمن تقسیم­بندی مناطق مرزی بر مبنای ویژگی­های جغرافیایی و هیدروپلتیکی، به ظرفیت­های توسعه­ای مناطق مرزی غرب کشور بویژه در ارتباط با موضوع مهار و بهره­برداری از آب­­های مرزی پرداخته شود. در این راستا با استفاده از منابع اسنادی-کتابخانه­ای و گزارش­های رودخانه­های مرزی و منابع آب مشترک وزارت نیرو و نیز فرا تحلیل نمونه­های بین­المللی و تجارب شخصی و به​کار گیری علم پویایی سیستم­ها، رفتارهای عملکردی ذینفعان در نواحی مرزی غرب مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. رویکرد «توسعه پایدار مرز با محوریت آب» به​عنوان مهمترین عامل در ارتقاء شاخص­های انسانی و اجتماعی و متعاقب آن ایجاد امنیت در مرزهای غربی کشور، همچنین شرایط تحقق آن حاصل این بررسی می​باشد. با منظور نمودن تمامی تعاملات و بازخوردهای درون و برون سیستم حوضه آبریز غرب کشور و در نظر گرفتن فعالیت حلقه­های علت و معلولی، استخراج سه الگوی تیپ «جابجا کردن مشکل و به تأخیر انداختن آن»، «موفقیت برای گروه موفق» و «محدودیت رشد» حاصل این بررسی می‌باشد. با استفاده از­ این الگوها می­توان پایه­های فکری و رفتارهای ذینفعان را در مواجهه با ناامنی، به‌طور سیستمی تبیین و تحلیل نمود و به برنامه­ریزی در بخش آب با رویکرد توسعه پایدار پرداخت. نتایج تحقیق نشان می­دهد، بر اساس الگوی رفتاری «جابجا کردن مشکل و به تأخیر انداختن آن» اجرای طرح​های فیزیکی انسداد مرزها بدون توجه به تأمین اشتغال، امنیت غذایی، ارتقاء شاخص​های رفاه مردم مرز نشین و جلب مشارکت آنها، در بلند مدت نمی​تواند پاسخگوی امنیت باشد. بلکه مشکل امنیت را جابجا و به تأخیر می​اندازد. علاوه بر آن طبق الگوی «موفقیت برای گروه موفق»، بدون محرک​های برون​زا مانند سرمایه​گذاری دولت و بخش خصوصی در توسعه نواحی مرزی نمی​توان حقابه​های عرفی و قانونی را  برای بهره​برداری از آبهای مرزی و مشترک ایجاد کرد. همچنین با توجه به الگوی «محدودیت رشد»،  فعال کردن دیپلماسی آب برای تفاهم و تأمین حقابه کشور پایین دست یک الزام برای بهره​برداری پایدار از آبهای مرزی و مشترک می‌باشد.   

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Role of Water Geopolitics on Sustainable Development and Security of Border Areas Based on the System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abulghasem Mozaffari 1
  • Hamidreza Hajihosseini 2
  • Mohammadreza Hajihosseini 2
1 MA of Civil Engineering, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
2 MA of Water Resources Managment, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract       
Introduction
In the modern perspective, national security will not be achieved only by increasing military power. In fact it is related to the strengthening of national powers in economical, political, social and military facets, instead of limiting solely in terms of military powers. Energy Geopolitics especially Water Geopolitics would be one of the most important factors affecting national security. According to Geopolitics of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as one of the largest countries in the world, in terms of very long borders, the number of neighboring countries and existence of rivers and seas, covering more than 50% of border strip has created great potential for comprehensive and sustainable development, which can improve economic, social, cultural and security indicators in the region.
Methodology
This study is attempted to divide the border regions based on Geopolitical and Hydro-political characteristics, and to focus on development capacities in the western border of Iran, especially in relation to the issue of the control and exploitation of water in Trans- boundary Rivers. To do this, by using existing documents, library resources, reports of the Ministry of Energy, the analysis of international practices and personal experiences, and application of System Dynamics integrated approach, stakeholders' behaviors in western border regions will be analyzed. The "sustainable development of water-based border" approach is considered as the most important factor in enhancing human and social indicators and consequently the establishment of security in the western borders of the country.
Findings
Due to the abundance of water resources in the western regions of the country, the planning and development of these areas can be focused on water. In this regard, the stakeholders' behaviors for using these resources can be analyzed with the System Dynamics integrated approach. By considering all of the interactions in the western basin of Iran and considering the activity of casual loop diagrams, three types of "Shifting of the Burden archetype", "Success in the successful archetype" and "Limits to Growth archetype" were derived from this study, which can be discussed under the following themes:
1. The Shifting of the Burden archetype
Based on the conceptual loop of sustainable development and the security aspects of the border regions, which one discussed in this paper, this action measures create a mechanism similar to the "Shifting the Burden archetype" which simply may have a delaying impact on the need in addressing the existing challenges. Military actions or border barriers may provide security in the short-term, but sustainable development, as a fundamental solution, guarantees security in the long-term horizon.
2. Success in the successful archetype
Considering that Iran, during the eight years of the Imposed War, and also for many years up to the present, due to the existence minefields and the destruction of agricultural and residential infrastructures and migration in the border regions, have made it very difficult to use Iran’s territorial waters even in limited scales, whereas practically faced with more use of the opposite side of the border areas, which may create false water rights during these years. This behavior will be similar to the "Success to the successful archetype" and as stated, external driver and factors changing it seems necessary.
3. The Limits to Growth archetype
The using of Trans-boundary waters and the subsequent development of the border follows the "Limits to Growth archetype". As we mentioned in this study, the growth process cannot continue forever without restriction. So it is necessary to pay attention to the water rights of the downstream riparian. Otherwise, may be encountered possible protests or tensions similar to protests against the Turkey's Gap Project.
Conclusion
In this paper, while attempting to highlight the threats, opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the western borders of the country, the "sustainable development of water-based border" approach is considered as the most important factor in providing security to the western border areas of the country. To do this, by using existing documents and reports in this regard, and application of System Dynamics integrated approach, existing complexities in the stakeholders' behaviors in western border regions were analyzed and three types of archetypes were extracted. These archetypes can be useful in water sector planning especially in sustainable development approach. Using these archetypes one can analyze the thought process and stockholder’s behavior in the border region systematically with regard to security issues.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • sustainable development
  • Security
  • Border Areas
  • HydroPolitics
  • Trans-boundary Rivers
  • System dynamics approach
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