شناسایی و تحلیل مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر امنیت نواحی مرزی رود ارس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

رود ارس در طول تاریخ زمینه‌ساز تنش و نیز همکاری میان چندین کشور بوده است. این ناحیه با بیش از چهار صد کیلومتر مرز بین‌المللی مشترک با کشورهای آذربایجان، ارمنستان، جمهوری خودمختار نخجوان و ترکیه، داشتن چهار شهرستان و هفت شهر مرزی با ظرفیت‌های بالای طبیعی، ژئوکالچری، ژئواکونومیکی و ژئوپلیتیکی از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی و تحلیل مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر امنیت ناحیۀ مرزی ارس است. روش پژوهش، تحلیلی ـ توصیفی و نوع تحقیق بنیادی ـ کاربردی است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که مؤلفه‌های اصلی در شش دسته عمده تقسیم شدند که به‌طور کلی 60 درصد مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر امنیت ناحیۀ مرزی رود ارس را شناسایی و تبیین می‌کنند: مؤلفه نظامی ‌ـ ‌انتظامی(600/12)؛ مؤلفه جغرافیایی(068/24)؛ مؤلفه نهادی ‌ـ‌‌ مدیریتی و زیست‌محیطی(059/35)؛ مؤلفه ژئوکالچری(085/44)؛ مؤلفه ژئواکونومیکی(522/52)؛ و مؤلفه ژئوپلیتیکی(338/60). بنابراین، مؤلفه‌های ژئوکالچری، ژئوپلیتیکی و ژئواکونومیکی تأثیرگذارترین مؤلفه‌ها بر امنیت ناحیۀ مرزی ارس محسوب می‌شوند

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identify and Analysis of Effective Factors to Border Security Regions in Aras River

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yashar Zaki 1
  • Akbar Hamidi 2
1 Assistant Professor Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran..
2 Ph.D. student of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract      
Introduction
Security has become a central concern in regions around the world, specifically with the rise of ethnic, religious, race, and immigration conflict as well as terrorism. The border region scale is significant for promotion and development of security discussions, because its affects a collection of internal and external factors. Border areas have a special status as geographical paramount in national and international debates. This paper investigates security of river's physiographic area in northwest of Iran and along the Aras international boundary river. Occasionally, border area of Aras river led to tension and collaboration between two or more nations and countries in history. This region has multitude geopolitical importance with more than 400 km international border; Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey, having four county and seven border cities with high natural and human capacities (mineral resources, oil, agriculture, borderline differences and ethnic and religious variations). In this research, we have identified effective security factors on the border region in Aras river by examining complex relationships between environmental, political and economic factors. Generally, we measured the effects of various security-related factors, including gender, age, socioeconomic status, trust, ethnicity, region structure and texture, geopolitical position, changeable elements of power in region and its cultural context through factor analysis. Therefore, question that to be mentioned here is: what factors have had greatest impact to region security boundary in Aras river.
 
Data and methods
Research method is descriptive-analytical and research type is applied and theoretical. The method of data collection is documental – surveying; first, theoretical information was gathered in relation to border towns, its characteristics and features of Aras border region. Second, in order to provide undone data, survey studies (interviews and questionnaires) were conducted and questionnaire was adjusted based on Likert scale. For assessing to research validity, designed questions based on indicators, delivered to experts familiar with concepts of research and asked from them to evaluated accuracy of indicators convert to questions. Cronbach's alpha test was used to measure reliability of each variables that’s required for factor analysis. Therefore, for determine reliability of this tool, a pre-test was performed among the sample of 30 residents of the community surveyed. Then, using SPSS software, alpha value for each question and total questionnaire was obtained. The alpha value was "0/821", which is higher than 0.7, indicating its suitability for factor analysis. The statistical community is combined of all border residents such as villages, towns and cities in around of Aras river, nearly 385 sample were selected with using Cochran formula. The sampling method is random cluster. Data analysis was performed through exploratory factor analysis in SPSS software. 
 
Results and Discussion
To carrying out factor analysis, sampling adequacy test (KMO) was calculated to ensure the adequacy of sample size. In this test, KMO value was "0.714" and significance level of Bartlett test was "sig= 0.000", these values indicate suitability of the data for factor analysis. That is, given that KMO is above than "0.5", performance factor analysis is possible on target variables. Likewise, in order that significance test (sig: 0.000) less than "0.05" its acceptable. In this research, with utilizing of Varimax rotate, "6" factors with eigenvalue greater than "1" and their materials had factor load greater than "0.25" were obtained. with determined to extraction of six factors, sixty percentage of total variance is explained. The percentage of total variance for each factors is as follows: the first factor (12.68); second factor (24.06); third factor (35.05); fourth factor (44.08); fifth factor (52.52) and the sixth factor (60/33). The results of factor analysis method after matrix rotation show that variables (3, 16, 19, 28 and 36) placed in first category, variables (1, 5, 15) in second category, variables (11, 14, 21, 23, 24, 27, 33 and 35) belonging to third category, variables (2, 6, 8, 12, 17, 25, 26 and 32) stand in fourth category, variables (7, 9, 20, 22, 30 and 31) in fifth category and the variables (4, 10, 13, 18, 29, and 34) are pertaining to sixth category.
  
Conclusion
The most important recognize factors effectiveness to security of border region in Aras river including to geographical factors [geomorphologic-climatological], institutional- management and environmental, military-disciplinary, geoeconomical, geocultural, and geopolitical. The naming of indicators is done based on variables semantic authenticity and content implication, in addition, interpretation and prioritization of factors was based on factor load of their variables subset. Geocultural and geopolitical factors were most important factors effective indicators to security of border region in Aras river, and military - disciplinary and geographical were identified least influential factors. According to the results, priority dimension of security in study area is geocultural security; ethnic, racial, religious and linguistic correlations with periphery countries of    Aras river can lead to ethnic crises if don’t overcome to lack of strengthening conditions about convergence and unity.  Undeveloped industrial to major section of periphery in Aras river and dependence of most inhabitants to agricultural sector, which does not have sufficient income for households. The necessity of investing in industrial production sectors through responsible institutions is required to save region from unemployment, poverty and lack of sustainable income, and as a result can be geo-economics’ security

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Security
  • Geopolitics
  • Border regions
  • Factor analysis
  • Aras River
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