تحلیل ژئوپلیتیکی ناکامی اخوان‌المسملین در مصر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران

2 دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

اخوان‌المسلمین نام یک جنبش سیاسی - اجتماعی است که در سال 1928 م. توسط حسن‌البناء در مصر ایجاد شد. اخوان­المسلمین از بدو تأسیس به پیروی از آموزه‌های حسن‌البنا، به دنبال برقراری حکومت اسلامی در مصر است. این جنبش پس از سال‌ها مبارزه، با وجود موفقیت نسبی که در سال‌های دهه 1980 م. بدست آورد و توانست به پارلمان مصر راه یابد، نتوانست به هدف خود دست یابد. اخوان در دوران حکومت حسنی مبارک نحوه شرکت درانتخابات پارلمانی را مشی سیاسی خود قرار داد و پس از مدتی به قیام مردم مصر علیه حسنی مبارک در آغاز سال 2011م. پیوست. انقلاب مصر( 2011م. ) فرصت مناسبی بود تا اخوان به هدف خود برسد، اما در سال 2013م. شکست خورد. این مقاله با روش توصیفی، تحلیلی به دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که عوامل شکست اخوان‌المسملین در مصر چه بود؟ و در این راستا با استفاده از مناقشه ساختار -کارگزار این فرضیه را مطرح کرده است که مجموعه‌ای از عوامل ساختاری، عملکرد نامناسب جماعت اخوان و گروه‌های سیاسی به ‌علاوه دخالت قدرت‌های منطقه‌ای و فرامنطقه‌ای موجب شکست اخوان‌المسلمین در سال 2013م. گردید.
یافته‌های این پژوهش حاکی از آن است که در سه مقیاس محلی، ملی و منطقه­ای وجود احزاب رقیب، فقدان رهبری معنوی، ناکارآمدی قانون اساسی، ناتوانی دولت در تحقق وعده‌های خود به مردم ، اتحاد مخالفان علیه اخوان، دشمنی ارتش با انقلابیون، مخالفت الازهر و دستگاه قضائی مصر با انقلاب و دخالت قدرت‌های خارجی در زمره عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی بودند که اخوان‌المسلمین‌ را در مصر به چالش کشیدند. لذا می‌توان گفت که اخوان با وجود سال‌ها مبارزه در مصر، به واسطه چالش با احزاب رقیب محلی، نظام حاکم بر مصر و دخالت قدرت‌های فرامنطقه‌ای، شایستگی خود را برای ایجاد یک حکومت مدنی در مصر، که تضمین‌کننده منافع اکثریت باشد را از دست داد

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Geopolitical Analysis of the Muslim Brotherhood Failure in Egypt

نویسندگان [English]

  • Javad Etaat 1
  • Hasan Karimi 2
1 Associate Professor of Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University of Tehran
2 PhD in Political Geography, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract     
Introduction
The Muslim Brotherhood is the name of a political-social movement established in 1928 by Hassan al-Blaana in Egypt. Despite the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood is an Egyptian organization, it has global incentives and seeks to create a single, global organization under its own management. To this end, the members of this party in the late 1930s began to engage with Islamist enthusiasts in the Arab world. The Muslim Brotherhood, while communicating with Muslim and non-Muslim countries, has begun to establish branches in these countries. The Muslim Brotherhood is strongly opposed to secularism and secular nationalism and seeks to establish an Islamic state in Egypt, and ultimately in the Muslim world. This study, using a descriptive-analytical method with data collected from written sources and the Internet, seeks to find the possible reasons for the failure of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. It can be said that the failure of the Muslim Brotherhood was due to its incompatibility with the political and social environment of Egypt on the one hand and the interference of external factors on the other. The findings of this study indicate that the constitutional trap, the lack of charismatic leadership, managerial weakness, the poor economic conditions in Egypt, the challenge with other parties, the tension with the army, the conflict with al-Azhar and the interference of foreign powers were among the factors that led the failure of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. According to Islam promoted by the Muslim Brotherhood, politics means absolute politics in the real sense of the word, that is, attention to the internal and external affairs of the nation without relying on any particular party. The Brotherhood is an invitation to return because it calls on Muslims to return to Islam and the Qur'an. It follows a traditionalistic approach because it requires itself to practice a pure tradition. It is, in fact, a Sufi reality and political institution because it calls for the reform of the government from inside and the revision of the relation of the Islamic nation with other nations of the world. Ultimately, it has social insight. The Muslim Brotherhood sought to establish an Islamic state in Egypt. But a look at the fundamental slogans of this movement on the one hand, and the political and social atmosphere of Egypt, on the other hand, suggests that it is difficult to establish a fit between them. The Egyptian revolution (2011) was the golden opportunity that the Muslim Brotherhood had been looking for years to make clear and put into action their intentions.
 
Methodology
The main method of empirical sciences, including geography, is the deductive method. The deductive method or deductive reasoning reveals the scientific principles through the process of reasoning, and thus it is a logical method. In fact, logical reasoning supports and reinforces empirical ideas and impressions and synthesizes them by forming a thesis and antithesis. In this method, the methods of creating a rule that is the basis of its validity are examined.
 
Results and discussion
Egypt located in North Africa is one of the most important countries in the Islamic world due to the presence in al-Azhar University. The domination of the Egyptian government over al-Azhar on the one hand and the lack of financial independence, on the other hand, made this discursive center unable to function well. This situation aggravated by the fall of the Ottoman caliphate in 1918 led to the formation of the Muslim Brotherhood (1928). The Brotherhood originated in the city of Ismailia. Later, it became an overarching ideology in Egypt and was ultimately reflected on a transnational scale. After the revolution of 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood succeeded in taking control of the government in Egypt. But a set of factors led the party to fall in 2013. The factors affecting the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood were the constitutional trap, the lack of charismatic leadership, managerial weakness, the disastrous situation of Egypt, the inability of the government to fulfill its promises to the people, lack of interaction with other parties, tension with the army, disagreement with al-Azhar, and the opposition of the regional and international powers.
 
Conclusion
The Muslim Brotherhood was the product of the political and social conditions of Egypt and the entire Muslim world after the fall of the Ottoman caliphate. The Muslim Brotherhood officially started its political activities in 1939 due to the Second World War and the protests by the people about the British presence in Egypt. With the rise of Abdel Nasser in 1952, the Brotherhood was allowed to do political activities. But the Brotherhood's attempts to Islamicize the Egyptian society caused friction between the Brotherhood and Nasser, and many of them went to jail. During the Sadat era, many members of the Brotherhood were released from prison and began to take political actions, but the Camp David Peace Treaty caused a disagreement between the Brotherhood and Anwar Sadat, which caused Anwar Sadat to imprison many of them. When Mubarak came into power in the 1980s, the Muslim Brotherhood resumed their political activities due to the open political atmosphere at that time. However, the proximity of Mubarak to Israel created tension in the relationship between the Brotherhood and Mubarak. The September 11 incident led to the reopening of political space in Egypt. The Brotherhood took advantage of this opportunity and won over 80 seats in the 2005 parliamentary elections, an issue that was of concern to Mubarak. The 2011 revolution led Mubarak to collapse from power. The Muslim Brotherhood managed to take power but fell within a year. Among the factor leading to the failure of the Brotherhood, one can mention the constitutional trap, the lack of strong leadership, the chaotic situation in Egypt, the consensus of other parties against the Brotherhood, the opposition to al-Azhar, and the negative regional and global reactions. So the Brotherhood, after years of struggle, questioned its competency for establishing an Islamic and democratic government in Egypt due to its poor performance

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Muslim brotherhood
  • Revolution
  • Egypt
  • Islamic Government
  • Defeat
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