علت ها و پیامدهای شکست دولت در سوریه 2019-2011

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد مطالعات منطقه ای، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 کارشناسی ارشد مطالعات منطقه ای، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشجو دکترا، دانشکده مدیریت و حکمرانی ، دانشگاه مورداک ، استرالیا.

چکیده

آنچه با عنوان بهار عربی در تونس در سال 2010 آغاز شد و مصر را درنوردید، پرتوهای خود را بر خاورمیانه و از آن میان سوریه افکند. از روزهای نخست اعتراض‌ها در سوریه، بهار عربی به یک پاییز خون‌بار و جنگ داخلی تمام‌عیار بدل شد. بحران‌های سیاسی ـ امنیتی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی که کشور را در دوران حکمرانی اسد فراگرفته بود، دولت را به یک شکنندگی عمیق فرو برد. در همین دوره، سوریه به صحنه‌ تنش میان نیروهای مختلف به پشتوانه‌ حمایت‌های داخلی و خارجی بدل شد. با توجه به این تحولات، نویسندگان این مقاله در تلاش هستند به این پرسش پاسخ دهند که «عوامل شکست دولت در سوریه در سال‌های 2010 تا 2019 چه بوده است؟» این مقاله در پاسخ به این پرسش فرضیه‌ «دولت در سوریه از ابتدای اعتراض‌ها، به‌واسطه‌ی بحران‌ها سیاسی ـ امنیتی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی که به نظامی‌گرا ‌شدن کشور از جهت‌های مختلف منجر شد، شکست خورده است» را مطرح کرده است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که دولت سوریه پس از 2010 به‌سبب نبود توازن و افول اقتصادی، فشارهای جمعیتی و محیط زیستی، فساد سیاسی ـ اداری و بحران خدمات عمومی با بحران روبه‌رو و پس از 2011 این وضعیت به شکست دولت منجر شده است. در این مقاله از روش کیفی و کمی، توصیفی، همراه با تحلیل ساختاری برای کشف رابطه‌ میان عوامل موثر در شکست دولت در سوریه در سال‌های مورد مطالعه استفاده شده است. اطلاعات نیز بر اساس ابزار کتابخانه‌ای و داده‌های آماری تحلیل شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Causes of the failure of the state in Syria (2010-2019)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elaheh Koolaee 1
  • Yahya Zarrin Narges 2
  • Ziba Akbari 3
1 Regional Studies Department, University of Tehran
2 Private Sector
3 Ph.D. Student, School of Management and Governance, University of Murdoch, Australia
چکیده [English]

What broke out as the Arab Spring in Tunisia in 2010 stroke Egypt and shed its light on the Middle East, including Syria. During the first few days of demonstrations in Syria, the spring turned into a bloody fall and a full-scale civil war. Political-security crises and economic and social problems that had dominated the country during Assad's family rule left the state in deep defeat. Meanwhile, the arena of war turned into the scene of conflict between different political forces and their regional and international supporters, caused Syria to encounter immense foreign intervention. In this regard, this article attempts to figure out the answer to this question, "What are the causes for the Syrian state of failing during 2010-19?" The authors hypothesize that "the state in Syria has failed since the beginning of the protests due to persistent social, economic and political-security crises that led to the militarization of the country by the opposition and insurgent groups." The findings also indicate that the Syrian state faced historical crises after 2010 in economic imbalance and decline, demographic and environmental pressures, political-administrative corruption, and weak public services, which deepened after 2011, and it spread to other areas such as ethnic-religious violence.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Failed State
  • ethnic-religious violence
  • Environmental Issues
  • Poverty & Economic Decline
  • Public Services
  • Security Apparatus
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