بررسی عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی تمایل آمریکا به شکل گیری ائتلاف نظامی عربی ‏در خلیج فارس و آثار آن بر امنیت جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تهران.دانشکده جغرافیا

2 استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، جغرافیای دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی،دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

منطقه ژئوپلیتیکی جنوب غرب آسیا که به‌واسطهنقش‌آفرینیقدرت‌های فرامنطقه​ای همواره درگیر تحولات فراوانی بوده است، در ماه‌های اخیر نیز شاهد تلاش‌هایی از سوی ایالات‌متحده آمریکا و کشورهای عربی هم‌پیمانانش در حاشیه خلیج فارس برایشکل‌دهی به یک ائتلاف نظامی عربی و ضد ایرانی بود.با توجه به افزایش تنش و درگیری میان ایران و عربستان سعودی، حمایت همه‌جانبه آمریکا از این کشور در تقابل با ایران و نیز افزایش تلاش‌هابرای شکل‌دهی به این ائتلاف،پژوهش حاضر بر آن شد تا با بهره‌گیری از تکنیک تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و استفاده از نظر کارشناسان به بررسی کیفیت و نقش عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی مؤثر بر تمایل آمریکا در شکل‌گیری این ائتلاف بپردازد و بر اساس نظریه‌هاینوواقع‌گرایی و الگوهای مختلف روابط ژئوپلیتیکی، نقش این قدرت را در این مسیر ارزیابی کند.
در این پژوهش که با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک مک و مدل دلفی نسبت به تحلیلیافته‌ها اقدام شد. نتایج به دست آمده نشان داد نقش‌آفرینی‌های آمریکا احتمال شکل‌گیری یک ائتلاف نظامی عربی و ضد ایرانی را در خلیج فارس افزایش داده است و این وضعیت در صورت استمرار امنیت ایران را در ابعاد مختلف به‌ویژه ابعاد اقتصادی و نظامی دچار مشکل خواهد کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Geopolitical Factors of U.S Tendency to Form an Arabian ‎Military Coalition in Persian Gulf and its Consequences on ‎Iran's Security

نویسندگان [English]

  • Qiuomars Yazdanpanah Dero 1
  • Bahador Zaeri 2
  • Reza Rahimi 3
1 استادیار
2 Assistant Professor of Political Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Ph.D Student of Political Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract      
Introduction
Although the past efforts of the states of the Southwest Asia for a comprehensive coalition against common threats failed to reach the goal, in May 2017, the Arabian states near Persian Gulf by the supports of the new president of the U.S resumed their endeavors to form an Arabian military coalition. The Americans stated that they follow these actions for development of democracy in the region. However, based on hegemony theory initially coined by Joseph Nye, global powers encourage some states to form coalition in order to seek their own interests by predomination over the target countries. Therefore, this is the possible coalition that may have many geopolitical aspects and also a plenty of political and security consequences for Iran and the geopolitical region of South East Asia. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate geopolitical factors of American interests in forming an Arabian military coalition in Persian Gulf and its effects on economic and military security of Islamic Republic of Iran.
Methodology
This research is applied and cross impact analysis as a method in future research is used. Using the cross impact analysis, we have taken the opinions of experts about the impacts of the components on each other. The opinions of the experts have been ranged from 0 to 3 for the components. Thus, the integrated position of each component is determined for the problem. The cross impact technique has helped us to discriminate impressive, effective, determinative, independent goal, dual, risk, and secondary variables from each other. This is for more precise analysis of the problem.
Results and discussion
The US during many decades continuously endeavored to be present in the Southwest Asia, particularly Persian Gulf. The state is looking for many economic, social, and even military interests in the region. Thus, the state spent huge costs for the presence in the region. Iran was able to increase its influence and hegemony on some countries of the region and make the states to follow similar policies in the region. Iran was also able to enforce resistance in the region. Thus, the US and its allies are afraid of the influence of Iran.
They try to confederate with Arabian states of Persian Gulf and some other countries to form the Arabian military coalition to guarantee their interests in the region and enforce Zionism as well as to prevent development of geopolitical influence of Iran in the region. Therefore, the present research has attempted to assess the reasons of the interests of US for shaping the coalition. Applying the approach of hegemony theory, we have analyzed the role the US played in southwest Asia to shape an Arabian military coalition. Based on the theory, this is the global power that encourages some states to form military coalition, as this is the case for the Arabian states around the Persian Gulf. Such confederation and intervention can result in negative consequences for all the member states and also the security of the region.
Conclusion
According to the results of this research, increased power and geopolitical influence of Islamic Republic of Iran in the Southwest Asian region is one of the main concerns of US. Thus, the state makes any attempts to present the condition and weaken Iran. Another concern of the US in the region is decreased military power of Zionism. This made the US to keep its presence in the region and form a coalition in the framework of hegemony theory in order to provide its interests at the highest level. Addition to these two causes of American actions in the region, development of Islam religion and increase in global tendency towards the religion also concerned the state. The increased presence of American rivals including China and Russia in the region and their extensive economic and military activities in the region is considered as a threat by the USA. These issues have motivated the Americans to seek to form mandatory and stable coalitions in the region.
This study has indicated that the main goals of the US in the region are increase in economic relations with the states of Southwest Asia, dominance over the geographical position of the region, political dominance over the heads of the Southwest Asian states, dominance over oil and other economic resources of the region, predomination on military bases in the Persian Gulf region, and making changes in life styles of people of the region. These goals are important for the country to provide long term interests of the global power in the region. Other components such as development of democracy in the region are not the goals of the US. In other words, development of democracy in the Southwest Asia which was stated by America as its goal in the region is not, in fact, the main goal of the state for formation of the coalition.
Based on the findings, economic and military security of Iran is threatened by formation of the coalition. Thus, it is necessary for the diplomacy of Iran to make further efforts to mitigate the Iran-phobia in the region. In other words, as the formation of the Arabian military coalition can endanger the security and economic conditions of Iran, the government of Iran has to prevent the formation of the coalition and weaken its development. So, Iranian government has to make the world aware of its peaceful purposes and reduce the Irano-phobia among the countries of the region. Additionally, Iran has to make the neighboring states aware of the great damages this coalition may have for all the states of the region and the highest benefits of that for the Americans.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Geopolitics
  • Military alliance
  • Arab countries
  • Southwest Asia
  • Persian Gulf.‎

- Dixon, T., Eames, M., Britnell, J., Watson, G. B., & Hunt, M. (2014). Urban retrofitting: Identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 89.

 - Duerti, James and Paltzograph, Robert (2004), Contradictory Theories in International Relations, Vahid Bargey and Alireza Tayeb, Gomes Publication[in Persian].

 - Hafeznia, Mohammad Reza (2006), Geopolitical Principles and Concepts, SAMT Publication[in Persian].

- Javadi Fath, Sarah (2005), US Profits in the Great Middle East, Strategic Magazine  No. 35, Spring[in Persian].

 - Karimipour, Davood (2013), Investigating the Role and Consequences of American Presence in Iran from Constitutional to Conquering the Spy Nest, American Institute of Studies[in Persian].

- Khadrizadeh, Ali Akbar (2006), Atazoni Third Force, Iranian-American Relations from Nasiriyah to Qajar Extinction, Zamaneh: The Contemporary Iranian Thesaurus and Political History Month, Vol. 5, No. 44[in Persian].

- Mansouri Moghadam, Mohammad (2012), Saudi foreign policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran, Doctoral dissertation, Dr. Mohammad Farhad Ataee, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran[in Persian].

 - Mohammad Pour, Morteza and others (2016), Identifying and analyzing the interactions of key factors and measuring regional sustainability with foresight approach, Journal of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, Issue 20, Autumn 1995[in Persian].

 - Roshandel, Jalil (1995), National Security and International System, Tehran, SAMT Publication[in Persian].

-Brilmayer,Lea (1994), American Hegemony,  New Haeven: Yale University Press.

-Dufva M Konola (2015), Multi Layered foresight : lessons from regional foresight in chile futures.

-Ekovich, Steven (2003), Iran and New Threats in the Persian Gulf andMiddle East, chapter in Hall Gardner, ed., NATO and the European Union: New World, New Europe, New Threats.

Garfinkle, Adam(2015), The Geopolitical Frame in the Contemporary.

-Gelpi,Christopher(1999),Allance as Instruments of Intra Allied Control, in Haftendorn,Keohane and Wallander,op.cit.

-George, Jim (1993). Of Incarceration and Closure: Neo-Realism and New/ Old World, Millennium, Journal of International Studies.

-Hunter, shreen (1984), "Arab, Iranian Relations and Stability in Persian Gulf", Washington Quarterly, Vol. 7, No. 3.

-Kameoka, A., Yokoo, Y., & Kuwahara, T. (2004). A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

Mahdian, Hosein an others (2017),The Study of Geopolitical Resons on  National Security of Iran in Nuclear Issue, Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume 13, No 2, Summer[in Persian].

-Myer, D., & Kitsuse, A. (2000), Constructing the future in planning: A survey of theories and tools. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 19(3).

-Ray, James (1998), Global Politics, New York Vanderbit University.

-Sazmand, Bahareh and Jovkar, Madi (2016), Regional Security Collections and Relationship Patterns Between Persian Gulf countries, Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume 12, No 2, Summer[in Persian].

-Waltz, Kenneth (1979). Theory of International Politics.

-www.quora.com (2011) , Is Libya part of the Middle East?.